Grain
Annual world production of grain per capita peaked in 1984 at 342 kg [8]. For years production has not met demand, so carryover stocks must fill the gap, now leaving less than 2 months’ supply as a buffer. Rising temperatures and falling water tables are causing havoc in grain harvests everywhere, but the biggest dent is caused by the bio-fuel industry, which is growing at over 20 percent per year. In 2007, 88 million tons of US corn, a quarter of the entire US harvest, was turned into automotive fuel.
Water
The production rate of fresh water is declining everywhere. According to the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 4, “by 2025, about 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world population could be under conditions of water stress ― the threshold for meeting the water requirements for agriculture, industry, domestic purposes, energy and the environment. . . .” [25]
Arable Land
With “low technology,” i.e. technology that does not use fossil fuels, crop yields diminish considerably. The production of so-called field or grain corn (maize) without irrigation or mechanized agriculture is only about 2,000 kilograms per hectare (10,000 m2), about a third of the yield that a farmer would get with modern machinery and chemical fertilizer [19, 20]
Actually, in another book on agriculture and soil science, it was stated that irrigation gives 6 times the yields. Another said that global warming will cause fluctuation which will cause crop failures 1/3 of the time. So increasing population, AGW, post peak oil, and aquifer/water loss will have a very profound effect as time goes on.
I have a 1979 Atlas book. Interesting, India's population was less than half of what it is now and they still have 2.6 children per woman!!! They have nearly all their northern aquifers at near depletion, and most of their river water is filled with fecal contamination.
I wonder how long they have, and if they will be the first country to crash.Statistics: Posted by Johhny Electriglide — Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:26 pm
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