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| Sea level rise costs. http://www.envirolink.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=19521 |
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| Author: | Johhny Electriglide [ Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Spongebob [ Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
The funny thing is that the Milankovich cycles are between 90,000 and 120,000 and it would appear your graph is lining up the end of max 120k cycles when that is not how they occur, they vary from 90k through to 120k with a 10-20k inter-glacial and a 1-2k slope in and out of them. This is evident on all graphs of inter-glacial temperature proxies. even though it appears on your graph as close to it is out of sync with the cycles. Also the CO2 is clearly shown as rising quite steeply in the last 8k or so years and dropping in the last few hundred to 1k by a tiny amount overall. Sorry Johnny, didn't re-link to the graph I had shown before and you are right about so many variations yet this does all link together with sea shores 10-20m higher in other places around the world. Mass genocide maybe but I doubt it will be an ELE because a few will try and hold on to what they have. |
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| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Tim the Plumber [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Tim the Plumber [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Johhny Electriglide [ Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
Tim is obviously VERY ignorant. By 2050 the maximum food the Earth can produce for humans will be probably 1/3 less from AGW, maybe up to 1/3 less from lack of irrigation water and soil loss, along with world fisheries collapse, and more loss from oil depletion effects of no mechanized farming and distribution. The population of 8.5 billion will be at well below sedentary starvation level, variable with time and location. Cascading collapse in an a world that has already been in abject poverty for some time. It will start in the 2030s, but build up in effects from 2015 to then. The early 2040s will see the Ogallala Aquifer and many others depleted. The rates of soil loss and fisheries loss will hit more then, also. The TFR is , and has been lowering while population goes up by momentum, but death rates will drastically increase until they overtake birth rates and rapid die off occurs. Some think it may go down with starvation from less oil and not a steep drop off that occurs with other mammals in nature. The population of say, 2070, will be a small fraction of the peak. Now for AETM and the ELE, sponge. It is thought by many that we are in the 6th Great Extinction right now, and it started with the human killing off of mega fauna 10K years ago. The tipping point of tundra methane self release with no more human HGHG input was believed to be at in 2009. There is also the ocean warming tipping point with Arctic Polar ice loss and the darker ocean warming more rapidly on its own. It is thought by Hansen and others that if HGHGs are not reduced 90% by 2016 to 2020, that the tundra methane tipping point will most likely be crossed, followed in time by the ocean methane hydrate self releases to "turnover" similar but greater than PETM almost 55 million years ago. The rapidity being far greater is what leads biologists knowledgeable to thinking it will be up to a 90% total species extinction rate. Anything of a time range up to 10 or 20 thousand years is,to a geologist, an "event". Anything over a 50% extinction rate is considered an Extinction Level Event, or ELE. The 30% extinction rate of PETM (in 30+K years)was not considered an ELE, or at least a "Great Extinction" "event". PS: the UN has under scored AGW with "PC" and is off by a significant margin. Things have been far beyond their worse than worst case scenario. |
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| Author: | spot1234 [ Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Fosgate [ Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Tim the Plumber [ Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | Tim the Plumber [ Wed Aug 08, 2012 7:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
Are the Canadian oil shales real? How about the Venezwailan tar? We are nowhere near any trouble with running out of oil. |
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| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
| Author: | warmair [ Thu Aug 09, 2012 8:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Sea level rise costs. |
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