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| Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? http://www.envirolink.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14656 |
Page 7 of 11 |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Mon May 28, 2012 5:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 11:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 11:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 12:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: More papers |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 12:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/ ... ensing.pdf Updated tropical lower tropospheric temperature datasets covering the period 1979–2009 are presented and assessed for accuracy based upon recent publications and several analyses conducted here. We conclude that the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) trend over these 31 years is +0.09 ± 0.03 °C decade−1. Given that the surface temperature (Tsfc) trends from three different groups agree extremely closely among themselves (~ +0.12 °C decade−1) this indicates that the ―scaling ratio‖ (SR, or ratio of atmospheric trend to surface trend: TLT/Tsfc) of the observations is ~0.8 ± 0.3. This is significantly different from the average SR calculated from the IPCC AR4 model simulations which is ~1.4. This result indicates the majority of AR4 simulations tend to portray significantly greater warming in the troposphere relative to the surface than is found in observations. http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/ ... OC1651.pdf We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1 ... 010.513518 We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor. So the models that the IPCC uses to attribute past climate change may not be all that accurate... hmmm.... |
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| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 12:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/ ... ensing.pdf Updated tropical lower tropospheric temperature datasets covering the period 1979–2009 are presented and assessed for accuracy based upon recent publications and several analyses conducted here. We conclude that the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) trend over these 31 years is +0.09 ± 0.03 °C decade−1. Given that the surface temperature (Tsfc) trends from three different groups agree extremely closely among themselves (~ +0.12 °C decade−1) this indicates that the ―scaling ratio‖ (SR, or ratio of atmospheric trend to surface trend: TLT/Tsfc) of the observations is ~0.8 ± 0.3. This is significantly different from the average SR calculated from the IPCC AR4 model simulations which is ~1.4. This result indicates the majority of AR4 simulations tend to portray significantly greater warming in the troposphere relative to the surface than is found in observations. http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/ ... OC1651.pdf We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1 ... 010.513518 We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We also spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor. So the models that the IPCC uses to attribute past climate change and predictions for the future may not be all that accurate... hmmm.... |
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| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Wed May 30, 2012 12:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Wed May 30, 2012 12:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Wed May 30, 2012 4:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Global Warming- Driven by Humans or Natural Cycles? |
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