| EnviroLink Forum http://www.envirolink.org/forum/ |
|
| 2012 Global Temperatures http://www.envirolink.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=16303 |
Page 1 of 6 |
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2012 Global Temperatures |
Hey everyone!  I haven't posted here in a while, but I'll post here more again in the future. On another climate website I go to, AmericanWX.com's Climate Change Forum, they have a thread open where people can discuss the 2012 Global Temperatures and predict what the anomalies will be for the upcoming months. I'll start one up, here. The UAH monthly numbers came in for January, and they are negative:  Looks like the Global temperature dropped about .2 Degrees C in about a month. |
|
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
I predict the average temperature this year will be in the top 10 record warm years as has beeen the trend this century. |
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Wayne Stollings wrote: I predict the average temperature this year will be in the top 10 record warm years as has beeen the trend this century. I think in the surface temperature dataset that is certainly plausable. I'm going to go a tad lower than that though, I'm going to say that it will be in the top 15 warmest, because January 2012 looks to have started cold, and looking at the GFS 2 meter temperature re-analysis on Dr. Ryan Maue's website, policlimate.com, it looks like as if things have been running below the 1981-2010 normal as of late.  Dr. Roy Spencer said that the January 2012 finalized anomaly will probably be a bit cooler than -0.09 Degrees C, (-0.10 to perhaps -0.11 Degrees C) because of satellite drifting causing false warming. Quote: Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/02/uah ... -09-deg-c/ |
|
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Quote: Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments. Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. 
|
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Wayne Stollings wrote: Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. Well the adjustment would change the Global Temperature anomalies by maybe a few hundreths of a degree, which isn't a significant change at all. |
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Massive spike is continuing on AMSU. A positive anomaly at this stage on the UAH dataset for February is becoming more likely. |
|
| Author: | Johhny Electriglide [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
2011 was the ninth warmest on record and the trend continued where the top nine out of ten warmest years were in the past decade. 2012 is expected to be significantly warmer.  
|
|
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Snowy123 wrote: Wayne Stollings wrote: Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. Well the adjustment would change the Global Temperature anomalies by maybe a few hundreths of a degree, which isn't a significant change at all. A few hundreths here and a few hundreths there and you have manipulation ... at least that is often the claim in the adjustments to temperature in other cases. |
|
| Author: | lesithmaria [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
may i know why are these changes in the temperatures are being caused???? |
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years: 2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131 2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118 2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115 2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000 2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073 2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216 2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236 2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133 2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189 2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031 2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013 2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063 2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042 2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172 1993 9 -0.272 2008 5 -0.130 2012 2 -0.121 http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt |
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
UAH came in with a negative anomaly for February: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372 2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348 2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342 2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229 2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043 2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233 2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204 2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155 2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178 2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054 2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024 2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041 2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138 2012 02 -0.116 -0.014 -0.217 -0.281 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/03/uah ... /#comments Everywhere cooled from January 2012 except for the NH, which warmed slightly. |
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
lesithmaria wrote: may i know why are these changes in the temperatures are being caused???? The monthly/yearly changes in temperature? They're primarily due to changes in ENSO creating wild temperature fluctuations because of the fluctuations in Cloud Cover and Water Vapour during a change in the ONI. With Longer term changes in the temperature anomalies, we call it Climate Change. There are lots of possible reasons for why temperature has gone up over the last 30 years. |
|
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Snowy123 wrote: RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years: 2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131 2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118 2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115 2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000 2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073 2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216 2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236 2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133 2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189 2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031 2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013 2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063 2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042 2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172 1993 9 -0.272 2008 5 -0.130 2012 2 -0.121 http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt And 2008, with a colder Feb., was still in the top 10 warmest years ....... so we shall have to see what the rest of 2012 brings us. |
|
| Author: | Wayne Stollings [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
On a side note, I heard there was a Snowy moderator floating around. How do you like the job? You realize that the only way you know you are doing it correctly is when everyone is complaining. If they are not all complaining, they think they are getting better treatment than the rest.
|
|
| Author: | Snowy123 [ Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2012 Global Temperatures |
Wayne Stollings wrote: Snowy123 wrote: RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years: 2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131 2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118 2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115 2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000 2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073 2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216 2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236 2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133 2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189 2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031 2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013 2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063 2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042 2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172 1993 9 -0.272 2008 5 -0.130 2012 2 -0.121 http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt And 2008, with a colder Feb., was still in the top 10 warmest years ....... so we shall have to see what the rest of 2012 brings us. Well we are slightly colder than 2008 by a couple hundreths of a degree so far for January and February, but I think we'll have to see how the rest of the year goes. The -.130 anomaly in 2008 was in May. |
|
| Page 1 of 6 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|