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When does the cooling start again?
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Author:  Iowanic [ Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:31 am ]
Post subject:  When does the cooling start again?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-11/p ... es/3882394

Author:  Snowy123 [ Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

This is somewhat misleading because it uses a weather event in a localized region of the Globe to try and disprove that Global Warming has stopped.

The globe as a whole has been running fairly cool, and really, the only significant warm anomalies are in the Kara Sea and North America.

Image

This makes the temperature for the Globe so far in 2012 using a baseline of 1981-2010 nearly -0.2 Degrees C below normal.

Author:  warmair [ Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

The idea that the long term cooling has stopped is highly improbable. We know that the current strong La Nina will cause a short term cooling which can be equal to the warming trend of a decade but once the La Nina gives way to either typical conditions or an El Nino the warming trend will continue.

http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/~/media/8E59FBA4F8A94FE4B84F01E271226316.pdf

Quote:
State of the Climate 2012 provides an updated summary of long-term climate trends. It notes that the long-term warming trend has not changed, with each decade having been warmer than the previous decade since the 1950s. The warming trends observed around Australia are consistent with global-scale warming that has been measured during recent decades, despite 2010 and 2011 being the coolest years recorded in Australia since 2001. Global-average surface temperatures were the warmest on record in 2010 (slightly higher than 2005 and 1998). 2011 was the world’s 11th warmest year and the warmest year on record during a La Niña event. The world’s 13th warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 15 years.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:47 pm ]
Post subject: 

I thought the air felt kind of warm when I logged onto this forum... :mrgreen:

Glad you found the forum Warmair. We can use this place as a substitute for TES in the meantime. 8)

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

warmair wrote:
The idea that the long term cooling has stopped is highly improbable. We know that the current strong La Nina will cause a short term cooling which can be equal to the warming trend of a decade but once the La Nina gives way to either typical conditions or an El Nino the warming trend will continue.



That's another problem with the argument put forth by you guys. You are heavily relying on an El Nino to bring back the warming trend that hasn't been observed over the past decade.

Unfortunately for that argument, the PDO has gone negative, which would favor more and stronger La Ninas over the next 30 years, and make El Ninos fewer and weaker. Any El Nino that does form, should be weak, and should not raise the LT/Surface temperature much, so the flatlining temperatures/slight cooling should continue for the next 3 decades at least, IMO.

The sun is very inactive, which may make the period of flatlining/slight cooling even longer.

Author:  Fosgate [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Snowy123 wrote:
warmair wrote:
The idea that the long term cooling has stopped is highly improbable. We know that the current strong La Nina will cause a short term cooling which can be equal to the warming trend of a decade but once the La Nina gives way to either typical conditions or an El Nino the warming trend will continue.



That's another problem with the argument put forth by you guys. You are heavily relying on an El Nino to bring back the warming trend that hasn't been observed over the past decade.


Note the either/or condition that also included "typical conditions". No one is relying on anything, much less heavily. They're simply pointing to two different ways in which a warming trend continues.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Fosgate wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
warmair wrote:
The idea that the long term cooling has stopped is highly improbable. We know that the current strong La Nina will cause a short term cooling which can be equal to the warming trend of a decade but once the La Nina gives way to either typical conditions or an El Nino the warming trend will continue.



That's another problem with the argument put forth by you guys. You are heavily relying on an El Nino to bring back the warming trend that hasn't been observed over the past decade.


Note the either/or condition that also included "typical conditions". No one is relying on anything, much less heavily. They're simply pointing to two different ways in which a warming trend continues.


The ONI going to Neutral will not cause the warming trend to resume... with Oceanic Heat Content at 0-700 m flatlining over the last several years, and no mechanism to redistribute the tremendous amount of Joules of Energy in the ocean to the atmosphere with a La Nada, there is no way that warming would be able to resume with a La Nada.

Author:  Fosgate [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Snowy123 wrote:
The ONI going to Neutral will not cause the warming trend to resume... with Oceanic Heat Content at 0-700 m flatlining over the last several years, and no mechanism to redistribute the tremendous amount of Joules of Energy in the ocean to the atmosphere, there is no way that warming would be able to resume with a La Nada.


And if it does?

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Fosgate wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
The ONI going to Neutral will not cause the warming trend to resume... with Oceanic Heat Content at 0-700 m flatlining over the last several years, and no mechanism to redistribute the tremendous amount of Joules of Energy in the ocean to the atmosphere, there is no way that warming would be able to resume with a La Nada.


And if it does?


Then the atmospheric temperatures would somehow have managed to evade basic physics, and basic physics would need to be completely re-written.

Author:  warmair [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 5:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Snowy123 wrote:

The ONI going to Neutral will not cause the warming trend to resume... with Oceanic Heat Content at 0-700 m flatlining over the last several years, and no mechanism to redistribute the tremendous amount of Joules of Energy in the ocean to the atmosphere with a La Nada, there is no way that warming would be able to resume with a La Nada.


The average depth of the ocean is 3500 meters so I am uncertain as to what the above proves. I do know that ocean currents have no problem distributing heat below 700 meters. The La Nina weather pastern involves the overturning of the pacific ocean with cold water rising near S America and warm water rising to the surface off the E Australian coast. From memory I think the Australian east coast sea temperatures are running at about 1.5 degrees above normal at the moment.
Image

The next problem is that the 2011 which being a La Nina year was the warmest La Nina years on record.
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201203/s3452909.htm
From here we have

Quote:
The joint CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate report found that while Australia set new rainfall records and had cooler than average temperatures, 2011 was also the world's warmest year on record during a La Nina event.

Author:  Iowanic [ Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Howdy, Warmair! Thought I recognized that name from somewhere!

My point on the original article:

Breaking century-old records seems signicant to me.

Author:  warmair [ Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Hi to
Iowanic Wayne and Snowy
Any others on the board from TES ?

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

Welcome Warmair ..... make yourself at home.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

We were on the road to cooling with the Milankovich cycle and axis wobble reaching near maximum tilt. Then fossil fuels, and overpopulation of humans and more fossil fuel burning. AGW reaching the tipping point of a process of unstoppable methane turnover similar to PETM. Now the cooling will start again when the carbon is re-sequestered back into stable CH4 deposits again---in 200,000 years. The ice age cycle returns and man is in the form of fossilized remains. =;
I'm just an old fossil has new meaning!!! :lol:

Author:  Snowy123 [ Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: When does the cooling start again?

warmair wrote:

The average depth of the ocean is 3500 meters so I am uncertain as to what the above proves. I do know that ocean currents have no problem distributing heat below 700 meters. The La Nina weather pastern involves the overturning of the pacific ocean with cold water rising near S America and warm water rising to the surface off the E Australian coast. From memory I think the Australian east coast sea temperatures are running at about 1.5 degrees above normal at the moment.
Image



What it shows is that the depth in the ocean where we have the best measurements show no change in Heat Content. Those measurements that go into 2000 meters are not as good as the 0-700 meter data, and should be taken with a grain of salt, since the values for 0-2000 m are significantly deviating from the higher quality 0-700 m dataset. If heat is being transferred from higher to lower levels of the ocean, we should be seeing this transfer through the first 700 m of the ocean. But we're not.

2008 and 2011 were very close in terms of the temperature anomalies. The main difference was probably the El Nino beforehand. 2010's was much stronger than 2007's. I'm sure that if the preceding El Nino were the same for 2007 and 2010, there would be no difference with the 2008 and 2011 Global Temperature, since we have not gained any heat in the regions of the ocean that we are able to measure best.

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