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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:30 pm 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
Well, if the ice starts to melt it will increase sea level so the methane ice will be at higher pressure making it less able to melt/evaporate/boil.

When the CO2 was at 12% or more in the triasic the earth did not boil. It was hot, fair comment but it did not get silly.

Strange that the plumber and the IPCC agree that this run-away scenario will not happen.


Well there was a mass extinction event though.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:44 pm 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
Well, if the ice starts to melt it will increase sea level so the methane ice will be at higher pressure making it less able to melt/evaporate/boil.

When the CO2 was at 12% or more in the triasic the earth did not boil. It was hot, fair comment but it did not get silly.

Strange that the plumber and the IPCC agree that this run-away scenario will not happen.


No boiling ... I don't see anyone claiming boiling either. Death of a lot of animals and even whole species, yes, that happened too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triassic%E ... tion_event

The Triassic–Jurassic extinction event marks the boundary between the Triassic and Jurassic periods, 199.6 million years ago,[1] and is one of the major extinction events of the Phanerozoic eon, profoundly affecting life on land and in the oceans. In the seas a whole class (conodonts)[2] and twenty percent of all marine families disappeared. On land, all large crurotarsans (non-dinosaurian archosaurs) other than crocodilians, some remaining therapsids, and many of the large amphibians were wiped out.

<snip>



Several explanations for this event have been suggested, but all have unanswered challenges:

Gradual climate change, sea-level fluctuations or a pulse of oceanic acidification[5] during the late Triassic reached a tipping point. However, this does not explain the suddenness of the extinctions in the marine realm.

Asteroid impact, but so far no impact crater of sufficient size has been dated to coincide with the Triassic–Jurassic boundary. The eroded Rochechouart crater in France has most recently been dated to 201 ±2 million years ago,[6] but at 25 km across (possibly up to 50 km across originally), appears to be too small.[7] (The impact responsible for the annular Manicouagan Reservoir occurred about 12 million years before the extinction event.)
Massive volcanic eruptions, specifically the flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), would release carbon dioxide or sulfur dioxide and aerosols, which would cause either intense global warming (from the former) or cooling (from the latter).
The isotopic composition of fossil soils of end Triassic and Early Jurassic has been tied to a large negative carbon isotope excursion (Whiteside et al. 2010). Carbon isotopes of lipids (n-alkanes) derived from leaf wax and lignin, and total organic carbon from two sections of lake sediments interbedded with the CAMP in eastern North America have shown carbon isotope excursions similar to those found in the mostly marine St. Audrie’s Bay section, Somerset, England; the correlation suggests that the end-Triassic extinction event began at the same time in marine and terrestrial environments, slightly before the oldest basalts in eastern North America but simultaneous with the eruption of the oldest flows in Morocco (Also suggested by Deenen et al., 2010), with both a critical CO2 greenhouse and a marine biocalcification crisis.

Contemporaneous CAMP eruptions, mass extinction, and the carbon isotopic excursions are shown in the same places, making the case for a volcanic cause of a mass extinction. The catastrophic dissociation of gas hydrates (suggested as one possible cause of the largest mass extinction of all time, the so-called "Great Dying" at the end of the Permian Period) may have exacerbated greenhouse conditions.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:13 pm 
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PETM is tied to vulcanism also, but did not qualify as one of the 5 great extinctions. As a geologist I believe there is a correlation with impacts and subsequent vulcanism later, through a delayed effect on the upper mantle. The impacts start a delayed triggering effect, releasing magma from deep in the upper mantle to the crust over a period of even millions of years. Of course, it is tough to prove.
AETM is another story. Not the slow build up of CO2 with a long period of high particulates, and added seismic clathrate blowout of gigantic proportions. This time the CO2 is totally from human causes, and much faster. The three 2009 tundra scientific reports and the Norwegian sea temperature report all indicate the vector of methane turnover at 10 times PETM and about 10% more methane than then. The IPCC has their heads in the sand after the ridicule they got for being overly conservative to some, like me, and alarmist to the majority of idiots who want to believe in a fairy tale.
The pressure will hold the methane hydrate, yeah sure. It is already slowly releasing down to 1200 feet with 1*F rise. 2*F rise in another hundred years will cause fast release. This added warming will cause +2*F and warmer deeper and deeper, faster and faster, with methane hydrate rapid releases.
The temperature rise on land and in the seas are just too fast for most life to adapt and eco-systems fail. I used to think it would stop at PETM minus 5*F, but now realize it will be PETM plus 5*F. I won't be around and neither will anyone else.
To me it is a crying shame that, first, nothing was done when we knew the horrors of being on the mammalian crash curve, sounded warning all this time, and nothing done. Then as more was known about AGW and warnings started, nothing was done also. It was a triumph when warnings went out about ozone loss, and the international community stopped most use of those chemicals that were causing the loss. That was because it wasn't too hard or costly, as the population and fossil fuel burning reductions needed.
I would like to think that we have not crossed that tipping point of tundra melt methane self release, but knowing methane hydrate sensitivity, and the fact that the high latitudes are now +10 to 12*F, and that another 1*F globally is in momentum, which will affect the poles more----we waited too long.
Just like we waited too long with overpopulation.
Just like the growth only economy on a finite planet and a culture of debt that will lead to very high inflation and world depression unknown in scope well preceding the general eco-collapses. The general stupidity, lust, and greed of one species, an effect on the biosphere like a bull let loose in a China Shop. I suppose it is like what was called "original sin" in Catholic School. The Garden Of Eden is being top cut, soil sterilized, depleted, poisoned, and burning, and there is no place to which humans can be cast out.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:29 am 
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Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPavvQme60s&feature=autoplay&list=PL6C80AF9F375FE85F&playnext=2


How about this one?

I have seen much more alarmist stuff, I will keep trying to find the links.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 7:32 am 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPavvQme60s&feature=autoplay&list=PL6C80AF9F375FE85F&playnext=2


How about this one?

I have seen much more alarmist stuff, I will keep trying to find the links.



What about it? Where was there ever a mention of "boiling". There did appaer to be a lot of references to changing climate though. It seems that "boiling" is just a bit of a strawman-ish expansion that bypasses any specific position but attempts to lump all climate change positions together at the same time.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2012 7:50 am 
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Some don't understand the implications of small, gradual change. For me, all it takes is a fundamental knowledge of chemistry. When we're talking water, even half a degree C can mean inordinate change. The climate part immensely builds on that and probably just confuses folks yet more. I don't hear much of climate change during our 100+ degree summers. It's always the cold snap during winter in which I hear stupid crap like "What about this global warming?". Doofuses. That's part of it!

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 05, 2012 11:42 am 
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Here Ann, is a recent article on the subject of this thread;
http://www.enn.com/pollution/article/44628

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