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 Post subject: 2012 Global Temperatures
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:23 pm 
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Hey everyone! :mrgreen:

I haven't posted here in a while, but I'll post here more again in the future.

On another climate website I go to, AmericanWX.com's Climate Change Forum, they have a thread open where people can discuss the 2012 Global Temperatures and predict what the anomalies will be for the upcoming months.

I'll start one up, here.

The UAH monthly numbers came in for January, and they are negative:

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Looks like the Global temperature dropped about .2 Degrees C in about a month.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:37 am 
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I predict the average temperature this year will be in the top 10 record warm years as has beeen the trend this century.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:19 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
I predict the average temperature this year will be in the top 10 record warm years as has beeen the trend this century.


I think in the surface temperature dataset that is certainly plausable.

I'm going to go a tad lower than that though, I'm going to say that it will be in the top 15 warmest, because January 2012 looks to have started cold, and looking at the GFS 2 meter temperature re-analysis on Dr. Ryan Maue's website, policlimate.com, it looks like as if things have been running below the 1981-2010 normal as of late.

Image

Dr. Roy Spencer said that the January 2012 finalized anomaly will probably be a bit cooler than -0.09 Degrees C, (-0.10 to perhaps -0.11 Degrees C) because of satellite drifting causing false warming.

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Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.


http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/02/uah ... -09-deg-c/

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:23 pm 
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Quote:
Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.


Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. :-

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:50 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:

Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. :-


Well the adjustment would change the Global Temperature anomalies by maybe a few hundreths of a degree, which isn't a significant change at all.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:51 pm 
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Massive spike is continuing on AMSU.

A positive anomaly at this stage on the UAH dataset for February is becoming more likely.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:02 pm 
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2011 was the ninth warmest on record and the trend continued where the top nine out of ten warmest years were in the past decade.
2012 is expected to be significantly warmer. :razz: :-({|=

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 1:08 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

Hmmmm, if this were in relation to an adjustment for a cooling trend by anyone else think of the claims of manipulation which would follow. :-


Well the adjustment would change the Global Temperature anomalies by maybe a few hundreths of a degree, which isn't a significant change at all.


A few hundreths here and a few hundreths there and you have manipulation ... at least that is often the claim in the adjustments to temperature in other cases.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:47 am 
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may i know why are these changes in the temperatures are being caused????


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:59 pm 
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RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years:

2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131
2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118
2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115
2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000
2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073
2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216
2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236
2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133
2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189
2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031
2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013
2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063
2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042
2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172


1993 9 -0.272
2008 5 -0.130
2012 2 -0.121


http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:04 pm 
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UAH came in with a negative anomaly for February:



YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138
2012 02 -0.116 -0.014 -0.217 -0.281

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/03/uah ... /#comments

Everywhere cooled from January 2012 except for the NH, which warmed slightly.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:11 pm 
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lesithmaria wrote:
may i know why are these changes in the temperatures are being caused????


The monthly/yearly changes in temperature?

They're primarily due to changes in ENSO creating wild temperature fluctuations because of the fluctuations in Cloud Cover and Water Vapour during a change in the ONI.

With Longer term changes in the temperature anomalies, we call it Climate Change.

There are lots of possible reasons for why temperature has gone up over the last 30 years.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:12 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years:

2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131
2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118
2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115
2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000
2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073
2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216
2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236
2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133
2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189
2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031
2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013
2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063
2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042
2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172


1993 9 -0.272
2008 5 -0.130
2012 2 -0.121


http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt


And 2008, with a colder Feb., was still in the top 10 warmest years ....... so we shall have to see what the rest of 2012 brings us.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:16 pm 
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On a side note, I heard there was a Snowy moderator floating around. How do you like the job?

You realize that the only way you know you are doing it correctly is when everyone is complaining. If they are not all complaining, they think they are getting better treatment than the rest. :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:17 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
RSS came out for February 2012, and February 2012 is the second coldest anomaly recorded over the past 18.5 years:

2011 1 0.086 -0.299 0.213 0.390 1.804 -0.098 -0.789 0.043 0.131
2011 2 0.053 -0.221 0.057 0.361 -0.103 -0.584 -0.553 -0.010 0.118
2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.214 0.011 1.388 0.098 0.074 0.058 -0.115
2011 4 0.106 -0.157 0.367 0.129 0.562 0.087 0.131 0.208 -0.000
2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.231 0.183 0.810 -0.170 -0.466 0.172 0.073
2011 6 0.296 0.165 0.468 0.262 0.892 0.431 0.524 0.372 0.216
2011 7 0.327 0.232 0.538 0.210 0.583 0.607 1.427 0.414 0.236
2011 8 0.287 0.212 0.565 0.074 0.759 0.692 1.187 0.433 0.133
2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.522 0.190 1.001 0.926 0.258 0.382 0.189
2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.357 -0.024 0.633 0.133 -0.075 0.206 -0.031
2011 11 0.032 0.024 0.102 -0.034 0.596 -0.010 0.326 0.075 -0.013
2011 12 0.115 0.028 0.236 0.085 0.577 -0.378 0.616 0.164 0.063
2012 1 -0.059 -0.113 -0.052 -0.006 0.632 -0.551 1.594 -0.076 -0.042
2012 2 -0.121 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.207 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172


1993 9 -0.272
2008 5 -0.130
2012 2 -0.121


http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt


And 2008, with a colder Feb., was still in the top 10 warmest years ....... so we shall have to see what the rest of 2012 brings us.


Well we are slightly colder than 2008 by a couple hundreths of a degree so far for January and February, but I think we'll have to see how the rest of the year goes.

The -.130 anomaly in 2008 was in May.

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