EnviroLink Forum

I've been thinking of the impact that the end of cheap oil has had on the economy lately as I watch snippets of the ridiculous spectacle of Republican and then Democratic National Conventions. The problem is identified as recession and how to get the economy growing again, and first, the Repubs give us their prescription: more tax cuts for wealthy plutocrats (like the two clowns running for high office), and then the Democrats give warm, fuzzy speeches reminiscing about FDR and economic boom after WWII. But nobody speaking at the conventions ever mentions (if they are even aware) that there is no room for economic growth in the major modern capitalist economies because the lifeblood that fueled economic growth (cheap oil) has run dry.

I've noticed that some of the peak oil theorists (I think Jeff Rubin - former CIBC chief economist would be one) who are on the lecture circuit now, inform us that the underlying reasons for all of the banking and finance scams going on now is because investors and their brokers want profits, and if they can't make profits legitimately, they'll lie, cheat and steal to earn their profit margins. But, as Jeff Rubin says many times...the underlying, never mentioned problem is that the oil is running out. One thing I don't agree with Rubin on is that he believes that we will run out of carbon sources - including coal, before we start a runaway greenhouse effect. We know that the cheap oil is running out now. A recent U.K. news story that got little notice, revealed that a major Saudi oil deposit has run dry and been shut down. Some oil analysts believe that Saudi Arabia has used up so much of its reserves that it will only be an oil exporter for another 10 or 15 years. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100019812/saudi-oil-well-dries-up/ All this indicates that the cheap stuff...which is also the cleaner stuff, is running out fast. What we have left unfortunately, is the crap like the Alberta Tar Sands and some U.S. shale oil deposits. And when they really get desperate, I'm sure they will be digging up tar sands deposits in Venezuela and India also. So, the oil may be running out....but what's left and sure to be used by a world economy that shows no interest in shifting away from petroleum, is dirtier and more carbon-intensive. Add that to the fact that we have already started some of the positive feedback effects of carbon release in the Arctic, and I can't see how hitting peak oil saves the human race from disaster.

I'd like to be optimistic about the long term odds of survival for permacultures and re-localized communities after a major economic crash, but I fear that a worldwide economic collapse will also take out the necessary international force to prevent nuclear war, stop the exploitation of tar sands, and stop the burning of forests for growing food by increasingly desperate populations.

According to the IEA, CO2 emissions may still rise even as oil production declines because conventional oil plus replacements will be locked into infrastructure for years:

"World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ate-change

Thus, we face the threat of global warming coupled with peak oil.

Finally, I see permaculture and localization not as solutions but the outcome of these predicaments.

Hello, I recently read a book Great Waves of Change by Marshall Vian Summers it was a awesome read that is free..and it really helps understand what is going on..and how to navigate it. I thought you might be interested as we are all feeling like you..)http://greatwavesofchange.org

Hansen told us how to deal with AGW back in his TV Special in 2006. A 90% reduction in fossil fuel use within a decade.
In his book, "Storms of My Grandchildren" he said to immediately replace most coal fired power plants with Gen IV nuclear and the rest of our energy needs with solar, wind, and various hydro power. He also said population reduction is absolutely necessary to not only reduce energy demand, but depletion and other pollution.
So the answers have been out there a long time, and only selfish stupidity has kept them from being implemented in time.
If you read about the end results of insufficient action, there is no ability to adapt for the length of time thermageddon will affect the biosphere.
I suppose you can pray for an act of God type geological event, or prepare yourself spiritually for near future man caused calamities.
This article says at present emissions rates we will definitely cross tipping points by 2024;
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140 ... one-xl-oil
and more on that tundra methane;
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/02/thawing- ... l-warming/

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”
― Chief Seattle

This one reminds me of an old friend from TES, August.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/denialnorway.html



AGW is epic in scope and long term repercussions:

The thing people as a whole don't get is how much emissions reductions must be done and how fast to avoid the worst possible outcome, an extinction of nearly 90% of life on Earth, including humans. HGHG emissions MUST reduce, by what ever means it takes, 90% in 3 to 11 years max, or that worst case is what faces future generations. 70% is from burning fossil fuels(40% COAL, 30% OIL) and 27% from slash and burn agriculture, and 3% from too many farm animals.
Other human pollution and depletion is bad, but not on this scale of consequences. It is already really, in all practical logic, to stop the human population die-off starting even as early as the 2030s and for sure by the late 2040s---after crossing tipping points of unstoppable natural positive feedback loops if emissions are not reduced enough in time. The pitiful survivors will face increasingly more miserable life as AETM approaches.
That is a higher morality that people must attain, where sustainability becomes a Holy Word and future generations mean more than the extra people and over use of resources now. A morality that decreasing emissions enough in time is the most important thing anyone, any group, any country, or any corporation can do. Education to reduce these emissions and still survive, get rid of selfish greed, and get rid of other beliefs and behaviors that hold humanity back from achieving the goal of continued life for ours and most other species.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”
― Chief Seattle