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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:41 am 
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http://www.climatecentral.org/news/asto ... ther-14989

During the fall, when the sun sets once again and the Arctic Ocean begins to refreeze, the heat in the ocean gets released back into the atmosphere. Since the jet stream, which is a corridor of strong winds at upper levels of the atmosphere that generally blows from west to east across the northern mid-latitudes, is powered by the temperature difference between the Arctic and areas farther south, any alteration of that temperature difference is bound to alter the jet stream — with potentially profound implications. It just so happens that the jet stream steers day-to-day weather systems.

Francis published a study last year in which she showed that Arctic warming might already be causing the jet stream to become more amplified in a north-south direction. In other words, the fall and winter jet stream may be getting wavier. A more topsy-turvy jet stream can yield more extreme weather events, Francis said, because weather and climate extremes are often associated with large undulations in the jet stream that can take a long time to dissipate.

“We know that certain types of extreme weather events are related to weather that takes a long time to change,” Francis said.

While there are indications that the jet stream is slowing and may be more prone to making huge dips, or “troughs,” scientists have a limited ability to pinpoint how this will play out in the coming winter season.


“The locations of those waves really depends on other factors,” Francis said, such as El Niño and a natural climate pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation. “I can only say that it’s probably going to be a very interesting winter,” she said.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:53 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/astonishing-arctic-sea-ice-melt-may-lead-to-extreme-winter-weather-14989



While there are indications that the jet stream is slowing and may be more prone to making huge dips, or “troughs,” scientists have a limited ability to pinpoint how this will play out in the coming winter season.




Sounds like much of climate science today. The operative words here are "limited ability."

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:27 am 
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Milton Banana wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/astonishing-arctic-sea-ice-melt-may-lead-to-extreme-winter-weather-14989



While there are indications that the jet stream is slowing and may be more prone to making huge dips, or “troughs,” scientists have a limited ability to pinpoint how this will play out in the coming winter season.




Sounds like much of climate science today. The operative words here are "limited ability."



You left out the critical "to pinpoint" :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 7:00 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/astonishing-arctic-sea-ice-melt-may-lead-to-extreme-winter-weather-14989

Quote:
During the fall, when the sun sets once again and the Arctic Ocean begins to refreeze, the heat in the ocean gets released back into the atmosphere. Since the jet stream, which is a corridor of strong winds at upper levels of the atmosphere that generally blows from west to east across the northern mid-latitudes, is powered by the temperature difference between the Arctic and areas farther south, any alteration of that temperature difference is bound to alter the jet stream — with potentially profound implications. It just so happens that the jet stream steers day-to-day weather systems.

------------------------------


Quote:
Francis published a study last year in which she showed that Arctic warming might already be causing the jet stream to become more amplified in a north-south direction. In other words, the fall and winter jet stream may be getting wavier. A more topsy-turvy jet stream can yield more extreme weather events, Francis said, because weather and climate extremes are often associated with large undulations in the jet stream that can take a long time to dissipate.

At first I did not understand this as on a casual inspection it does not appear to be correct, but just in case anyone else found this odd here is the explanation as I understand it. Warming the Arctic reduces the temperature differences between north and south. This in turn reduces the speed at which air moves from from the poles to the equator. The westward movement of the jet stream is the result of the Coriolis effect which is reduced as the the temperature difference between north and south is less.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:27 pm 
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I think it's interesting that the Antarctic Sea Ice tied with 2007 for the highest ice extent ever recorded when 2012 reached a record low on the Arctic.

I think that the two may be connected.

Image

Take a look at this graphic from the first IPCC report back in 1990.

Notice that when the Northern Hemisphere had a low Sea Ice Extent back in 1975, the Southern Hemisphere was at record highs. The Northern Hemispheric Sea Ice then increased while the Southern Hemispheric Sea Ice declined sharply. The Southern Hemispheric Sea Ice then gradually increased ever since, and the Northern Hemisphere decreased ever since.

The two variables changed dramatically during a short time, an indicator of a non-linear system changing from one state to another. The change in Sea Ice at the poles occured roughly during the time the PDO switched from it's negative to positive state, suggesting that the PDO plays a role in the Arctic Sea Ice melt and Antarctic Sea Ice growth. Oceanic Currents may explain 51% of the variation, as the r^2 value for the two variables (Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies since 1979) is -0.51.

Image

The chart above comes from Steven Goddard. NEVER have I praised Steven Goddard. I think that he is a lying, deceptive, and manipulative individual. However, the calculated correlations are definitely interesting, and indicate a moderate correlation does exist with the poles.

The data for the Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies that he used in the above graph can be viewed here and here respectively.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:03 pm 
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[Quote]"I think that he is a lying, deceptive, and manipulative individual."[Quote]
Funny. That is how I think of you, snow. :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :mrgreen:
On the denialists grabbing at the straw of Antarctic ice; "This is a claim the climate contrarians tend to make almost every time Arctic sea ice sets a record or near-record low. In reality, the trends in Antarctic sea ice are pretty small compared to what’s happening in the Arctic."
from skeptical science

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:19 pm 
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Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Quote:
"I think that he is a lying, deceptive, and manipulative individual."
Quote:
Funny. That is how I think of you, snow. :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :mrgreen:


I appreciate your honesty.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:04 am 
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A much better explanation of the relationship between the arctic and antarctic sea ice is here;

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/ ... #more-5650

I think the assertion that the sea ice loss we are currently seeing is due primarily to some poorly understood oceanic oscillation is not mainstream science. The fact is we are changing the property's of the atmosphere by adding greenhouse gases to it, that is mainstream science. To imagine that there will be no consequences seems naive or wishful thinking.

Some graphs to help people visualize whats happening at both poles;


Image


Image

However this thread is about the effect that the changes in the arctic are having on the weather in the more populated regions of the world, I think that we are already seeing them.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:24 am 
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spot1234 wrote:
A much better explanation of the relationship between the arctic and antarctic sea ice is here;

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/ ... #more-5650

I think the assertion that the sea ice loss we are currently seeing is due primarily to some poorly understood oceanic oscillation is not mainstream science. The fact is we are changing the property's of the atmosphere by adding greenhouse gases to it, that is mainstream science. To imagine that there will be no consequences seems naive or wishful thinking.

Some graphs to help people visualize whats happening at both poles;


Image


Image

However this thread is about the effect that the changes in the arctic are having on the weather in the more populated regions of the world, I think that we are already seeing them.


The Arctic has definitely been observing quicker changes than the Antarctic. However, the ice decline was relatively slow before the AMO flipped to it's positive state, indicating that Oceanic Oscillations probably play a significant role in Ice Decline in the Arctic. No one has denied that Greenhouse Gases are playing some sort of role in Ice Decline in the Arctic, however, natural factors play a substantial role in Ice Decline in the Arctic, and this can not be denied.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:33 am 
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You can deny that the ice melt is due primarily Oceanic Oscillations. I will post this again;

Image

Logically these Oscillations are always affecting the ice, and we do see levels increasing and decreasing but why is it only in the modern period we see this massive unprecedented drop off in ice extent? I don't think you need to be a supergenius and spent years researching to answer this question, a secondary school education should suffice.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:52 am 
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spot1234 wrote:
You can deny that the ice melt is due primarily Oceanic Oscillations. I will post this again;

Image

Logically these Oscillations are always affecting the ice, and we do see levels increasing and decreasing but why is it only in the modern period we see this massive unprecedented drop off in ice extent? I don't think you need to be a supergenius and spent years researching to answer this question, a secondary school education should suffice.


I did not say that the melt was primarily caused by oceanic oscillations. I said that they have a significant impact on the Arctic Sea Ice on multidecadal time scales.

Assuming that your Sea Ice reconstruction is correct, it can still be explained by natural sources.

Image

The 20th Century Warming in the Arctic not be fully explained without the large solar impacts.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:10 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
The 20th Century Warming in the Arctic not be fully explained without the large solar impacts.


Well you seem confident, Other people are confident that you can't explain the world trade center collapse without Jews Freemasons and Holograms.

Did that paper you link appear in Nature? the temperature reconstruction does not match the one I saw that was published in Nature. If the medieval warm period was so warm and so long how did glaciers persist through it that are now melting how did alpine species manage to survive through it that are now going extinct?

I think we have to assume your information is incorrect.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:12 pm 
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spot1234 wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
The 20th Century Warming in the Arctic not be fully explained without the large solar impacts.


If the medieval warm period was so warm and so long how did glaciers persist through it that are now melting how did alpine species manage to survive through it that are now going extinct?

I think we have to assume your information is incorrect.


Greenland has been much warmer in the past, and the glaciers have still survived to tell the tale of temperature changes over the last 10000 years.

Image

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:36 pm 
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Hmm wonder why it's so warm in Greenland compared to the rest of the world.

Image

Are you sure that graph you linked is right? I mean It seems to go against most peer reviewed studies and the ice is melting at the moment. as far as I am aware ice melts when its warm, and glaciers are melting that survived the medieval warm period so either the ice has changed properties in the last few hundred years or the graphs you linked are not accurate. I personally would go with the mainstream reconstructions appearing on Wikipedia and national geographic rather then climate4you but that's just me.


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