EnviroLink Forum
http://www.envirolink.org/forum/

The future may not be good ....
http://www.envirolink.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=23997
Page 1 of 1

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:53 am ]
Post subject:  The future may not be good ....

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/1 ... of-century

The world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, according to a new scientific report released today that was commissioned by the World Bank.

All regions of the world would suffer – some more than others – but the report finds that the poor will suffer the most.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

The +4*C is just the start, and only the survivors of the mid century crash will go through it and worse. 'The future may not be good' depends on where you are, and economic effects will hit first, and have hit many places, some for a long time.

In my state, the present isn't very good for many;
http://standard.net/stories/2012/12/10/ ... qus_thread

Author:  v1k1ng1001 [ Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

The interesting bit here is that it's the world bank saying it for a change.

Institutions are finally recognizing climate change only because they now have to calculate its enormous costs into their analyses.

Still, too little, too late.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

It doesn't look good for carbonate shelled life in the oceans..........
http://www.hcn.org/issues/44.21/can-the ... -Thumb.jpg

Author:  Milton Banana [ Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

“We have about five more years at the outside to do something.”
• Kenneth Watt, ecologist

“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
• George Wald, Harvard Biologist

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

“Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”
• Life Magazine, January 1970

“Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

“Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”
• Sen. Gaylord Nelson

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

All of these quotes are from the year 1970. None of these came true. These wild predictions have been going on forever. The OP is just another sortie into the time honored scare tactic.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

Those were wild predictions that ruined it for the accurate ones. The old bad apple in a barrel deal.
People get one bad piece of information and throw out the whole set. Some, I think, were designed to get people motivated for change and were generally unsuccessful. Others were predictions based on incomplete data.
Basic oil depletion was for mid 21st century, I remember, and that is close to true. It will be getting much higher in price well before then. Ehrlich made the mistake(in 1968) of completing the initial hyperbolic curve of a stimulated population (fossil fuels>more food, predators mostly eliminated>lower death rate), instead of referring to actual populations measured in field and lab tests/observations(like I did in 1967). He found out later that the rate of increase slows before crashing, but much of his credibility was ruined.
Now, when we really are at or past tipping points, people are still reluctant to act, and think "everything will be OK". =P~ #-o :shh:

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

Milton Banana wrote:
“We have about five more years at the outside to do something.”
• Kenneth Watt, ecologist


Have that time to do something about what? The taking of quotes out of context really ruins the credibility of the claim about said quotes.

Quote:
“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
• George Wald, Harvard Biologist


would this be the pollution which was acted against, or food shortage, which was also acted against, or .... context is a wonderful thing.

Quote:
“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist


It appears of face value to be a failed prediction, but again context is critical for other sentences could have qualified these statements.

Quote:
“Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”
• Life Magazine, January 1970


Again the context is critical especially since there seems to be sections not quoted.

Quote:
“Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist


Again without context, which would have been correct if there had been the qualifier of no action being taken to mitigate the pollution and with the portion not quoted there is a question.

“By the year 2000, [b]if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist[/b]

So if the present trends did not continue?

Quote:
“Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”
• Sen. Gaylord Nelson


An interpretation of a prediction by a politician .... the quote from Dr. Ripley would be better.

Quote:
“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
• Kenneth Watt, Ecologist


Again if present trend do not continue .....

Quote:
All of these quotes are from the year 1970. None of these came true. These wild predictions have been going on forever. The OP is just another sortie into the time honored scare tactic.


Especially if the context of the quotes is removed and any qualifiers ignored.

Author:  animal-friendly [ Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

Unfortunately, with Stephen Harper at the helm, Canada is dragging everyone else down ....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/no ... nada-kyoto

Author:  animal-friendly [ Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

animal-friendly wrote:
Unfortunately, with Stephen Harper at the helm, Canada is dragging everyone else down ....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/no ... nada-kyoto


The Green Party of Canada described the withdrawal as shameful.

“In the past, we’ve always had a reputation for environmental achievements that exceeded what we actually achieved, but we were at least compliant with global treaties until recently,” said Green Leader Elizabeth May. “The withdrawal from Kyoto is a devastating blow and a blot on our reputation in our role, as well as being a significant threat to our kids future.”


http://o.canada.com/2012/12/14/its-offi ... agreement/

Author:  sushilydv [ Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

.

More than 99.99% destruction of this planet has already happened.....Only the end of humans is yet to happen.

Most of the Biodiversity and Ecosystems have already been destroyed.

Species are not lost when they become extinct....Species are lost when they get decimated....When their populations drop from billions and millions to thousands and hundreds.

There are(were) millions of species in this world....Most of them have already been decimated because Industrial Activity has destroyed most of the forests....Millions of Plant and Animal species have been decimated.

All the land which is now occupied by man was the habitat of millions of plant and animal species before the arrival of man.

If we calculate the decline in population of millions of species the combined loss will come to more than 99.9%.

.
.

Rivers, Lakes, Oceans, Atmosphere and Land have been polluted, poisoned and killed by trillions of tonnes of Metal Waste, Plastic Waste, Chemical Waste, Gaseous waste, eWaste and Nuclear Waste.....The entire planet has become a Toxic Dump.....All Solid, Liquid and Gaseous Industrial Waste that has been produced by Industrial Society in 250 years after Industrial Revolution has accumulated on earth....It has not gone out of earth.

Oceans have turned acidic and warmer and there are oxygen deprived dead zones in the oceans....Fish in the oceans have been decimated by Industrial Fishing.

Billions of acres of fertile soil that was the source of food to millions of species has been killed by Cement, Concrete and Asphalt.

More than 99.99% destruction of this planet has already happened.....Only the end of humans is yet to happen.

A society that has destroyed all the natural resources of the planet will also destroy itself.

After destroying biodiversity and ecosystems which sustained human life for millions of years man will not exist...It is only a matter of a few years now.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The future may not be good ....

"More than 99.99% destruction of this planet has already happened" is absurd. At least on my planet. :mrgreen: Your planet, in your mind, is 99.99% destroyed----too bad. :crazy: =P~
Anyway, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. :mrgreen:
http://www.salon.com/2012/12/26/2012_gl ... e_reality/

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell" (Edward Abbey).

Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/