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Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not
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Author:  Dingo [ Fri May 03, 2013 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not

Joe Romm says it's manageable even now and insists most climate scientists agree with him. To assume we are headed for a dystopian future obviously destroys hope he agrees with a critic of doomsayers and saps the energy to bring about change. Oddly he offers little to support his more hopeful view as far as I can see but still it's good that somebody as influential as Romm is hanging in there. On the down side he debunks anyone that thinks we can turn global warming around. The climate effects of what we've done or will do until we stop we are stuck with apparently. His own view of where we take it off the cliff appears to be 4 deg. C.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/0 ... he-part-2/

Yes, it’s true, Climate Progress is probably the most widely read climate blog, but then we do not do the kind of unjustified “it’s hopeless” messaging Keleman disdains. Indeed, we’ve criticized the very few who do — or, rather, who did, in the case of James Lovelock.

Moreover, while it is a common trope that scary research gets your name in the news, that is also rather demonstrably not the case. To the extent that the media is paying attention at all, it would much rather run a (misleading) story on the occasional contrarian finding of a somewhat low climate sensitivity than a piece on the 95% of scientific studies published since 2007 that suggest things will be worse than we thought.

Ironically, climate scientists are as likely to be attacked as exaggerators (or as “Chicken Little,” for that matter) for reporting the increasingly dire situation we face as they are to be celebrated. Go figure.

Author:  Dingo [ Sat May 04, 2013 6:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not

To give the thread a little more focus David Roberts of Grist tells us we need to top out ghg emission by 2020 and then begin dropping our carbon footprint by 9-10% a year. In other words he thinks we need to go into something like 2nd World War mobilization mode.

http://grist.org/climate-energy/what-wo ... look-like/

The United States and 140 other countries have signed or otherwise associated with the Copenhagen Accord, in which it is agreed that the nations of the world should “hold the increase in global temperature below 2°C, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity.” For there to be a chance — even just a 50/50 chance — of limiting temperature rise to 2°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 (earlier for the developed world) and fall by 9 or 10 percent a year every year thereafter.

Nothing like that has ever been done. Not even close. No major energy transition has ever moved that quickly. Carbon emissions have never fallen that fast, not even during the economic collapse brought on by the demise of the USSR. Getting to change of that scale and speed is not a matter of nudging along a natural economic shift, as clean energy cost curves come down and fossil fuels get more expensive. That scale and speed seem to demand something like wartime mobilization.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat May 04, 2013 7:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not

I do not see the tea-party conservatives in Congress going for anything like this. They are still pushing for a total ban on abortion, birth control, and teaching evolution in school. #-o

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Sun May 05, 2013 3:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not

Not this green tea party conservative! I'm all for human population quality and quantity control, now.
There have been a number of articles on when we will cross the Arctic Tundra methane self release and Open ocean self warming tipping points. In 2006 Hansen gave us a decade to reduce emissions 90%, and an article from more studies last year gave us at most until 2023 to do the same. Others have said that with momentum in the system that we may have already crossed the point of no return. Others think that just starting massive 10% per year reductions by 2020 will be OK. Others talk about an even more ridiculous 50% reduction by 2050.
I have noted that many totally leave out the methane turnover scenario. Many know nothing of open ocean self warming from polar ice cap loss, and nothing of oceanic methane hydrates and their sensitivity to explosive release. Some concentrate totally on fossil fuel use and forget that slash and burn agriculture causes 27% of the HGHGs and animal farms/ranches produce 3% in the form of methane 23 times more warming than CO2 for 12 years until it changes to CO2 and water vapor. Clouds have shown to be a slight warming effect from keeping night temperatures higher, while some people insist they must cool the planet.
So many are ignorant that they make up the vast majority. Will they have a change in knowledge, and behavior, in time?
The hope is that we can reduce emissions 90% within a decade, IF we try hard enough in all areas.
But hope runs up against knowledge of human psychology and behavioral inertia. Hope runs up against financial realities.
Can we save our biosphere from AETM and its 6th Great Extinction completion?
Are we too far and fast on the blind road to ecocide?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/No-alte ... -down.html
I just can not give up hope and faith, even though it is against logic. [-o< O:) :mrgreen:

Author:  Fosgate [ Mon May 06, 2013 8:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Climate change - is it beyond manageable or not

Wayne Stollings wrote:
I do not see the tea-party conservatives in Congress going for anything like this. They are still pushing for a total ban on abortion, birth control, and teaching evolution in school. #-o

At the end of the day (middle of the century, really), it won't matter what you teach or practice. In 30 years, we'll have so many ignorant, underproductive folks clamoring and clawing for more than that for which they can compensate, that the tea-party will be a downright pleasant historical footnote. You'll wish we could go back to the days when there was a total ban on abortion, birth control wasn't so much an issue because teens had the sense (or faith--whatever works) that kept them from so much screwing around, and creation was the only thing taught in schools. This sort of goes back to our discussion on invention how ready we are for it. We've got too much knowledge coming in too fast. Humanity can't handle it. Scientists are going to champion knowledge, but what they don't realize is that the masses cannot assimilate it properly. What's occuring is something the characters of Star Trek sought to avoid--violation of the the prime directive--albeit on an internal scale with the different cultures intermingling on a single planet.

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