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Tracking the trend in extreme weather.
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Author:  Dingo [ Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

A good pretty comprehensive article on the subject, including tornadoes and some clear graphs to hammer the point down - we are headed toward some serious climate instability.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/0 ... revisited/

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 7:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

But .... but .... but there are just more people, more buildings, and more stuff to be damaged than before so that is why the damages went up .... really it was .... honest. :-

Author:  Dingo [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

One thing I need clarity on is how the math from this article works. It's seems kind of like pizza math, the quantity of the pizza goes up with the square of its radius.

Quote:
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10% effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 32% effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear).

Author:  warmair [ Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

Dingo wrote:
One thing I need clarity on is how the math from this article works. It's seems kind of like pizza math, the quantity of the pizza goes up with the square of its radius.

Quote:
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10% effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 32% effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear).


The force that the wind can produce goes up by the square of the wind speed. For example if the wind speed is 50 MPH and then increases by 21 mph the force produced doubles. Now as power equals force times velocity, the power of the wind goes up by the cube of the wind speed and thus a wind speed of increase of just 12 MPH in this case doubles the power of the wind and is likely to double the amount of damage done by the wind. So a small increase in wind speed has a dramatic effect on likely levels of damage.

If temperatures increase this will lead to higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere. Now this increases energy in the atmosphere primarily because water vapor when it condenses back to a liquid gives out heat which in turn increases the vertical speed of rising air masses. At ground level this translates to higher surface winds.

Author:  Dingo [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

warmair wrote:
Dingo wrote:
One thing I need clarity on is how the math from this article works. It's seems kind of like pizza math, the quantity of the pizza goes up with the square of its radius.

Quote:
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10% effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 32% effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear).


The force that the wind can produce goes up by the square of the wind speed.


Darn, I forgot my basic Newton. F=MV(Squared). Thanks.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

Your dependence on realclimate apparently ignores this;
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/0 ... he-arctic/


http://collapseofindustrialcivilization ... 9910-1.png

Author:  Dingo [ Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Tracking the trend in extreme weather.

Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Your dependence on realclimate apparently ignores this;
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/0 ... he-arctic/

I'm not dependent on any site, but will reference knowledgeable ones. I already read this article and in fact posted it on another site. Whether this suggests some sort of runaway tipping point remains to be seen but it kind of ups the ante. However unlike some folks I don't rush to apocalypse.

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