EnviroLink Forum

Community • Ecology • Connection
It is currently Wed May 27, 2015 4:00 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 
Author Message
PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:14 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
Posts: 2437
Location: Central Colorado
"Methane clathrate, also known commonly as methane hydrate, is a form of water ice that contains a large amount of methane within its crystal structure. Potentially large deposits of methane clathrate have been found under sediments on the ocean floors of the Earth"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
The huge Siberian methane blowholes of 2014 were Methane Clathrate Guns in its smaller effect. I used to make silver fulminate in my youth, and methane clathrate is VERY similar. Without ignition it is 100 times the heat trapping of CO2 for the first 20 years. Its stability is only with lower temperature and depth. It explosively releases with seaquakes, or as little as a 2*F temperature rise. The Siberian deposits are legendary, and 50GTs of it are ready to release, it very rapidly expands to 169 times its volume. That is just the beginning.......
Like nitroglycerin without fire. Arctic surface temperature goes +5*C or more and it starts below the surface. It is now +6*C over in the Arctic. The 50GTs of it are equivalent to 5000GTs of CO2, compared to the HGHG annual of ~33GT. Then the tundra total with all the ocean deposits is another 1000GTs, or 100K GTs of CO2, and the H2O vapor, and nitrous gases, among others. That puts the surface temperature beyond the boiling point of water. As a worst case scenario, but even an 80% turnover would would eliminate all but thermal vent life. :-({|= :-({|= :-({|= :-({|= :cry: 8-[ :-k :- :mrgreen:
http://guymcpherson.com/2015/03/for-tho ... of-humans/
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/02 ... -2031.html
http://planetextinction.com/planet_exti ... hrates.htm
http://planetextinction.com/documents/M ... rvival.pdf
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/2015/ ... -2015.html

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:43 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
Posts: 2437
Location: Central Colorado
There is around 105,000 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. Humans have put out less than 5,000 billion tons, to change the temperature 2*F at minimum, accounting for momentum. Well, if it was linear that would be another 42*F, but it is not. Remember water vapor and a few other HGHGs. So 44*F becomes 200*C. Increase over interglacial average, of only 10*F in a few hundred years is still too much for most life. People have to realize just how dangerous these methane hydrates are over a longer term than 10 years. We have less time than that to stop fossil fuel use and slash and burn ignorant farming, and turn green, plant trillions of trees, and reduce population almost as much as the crash will.
Ecocide is what it was called. I think it is also mass murder of all species. The suicide by over-indulgence, and done by clathrate gun.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:30 pm 
Offline
Member with 200 posts
Member with 200 posts

Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 10:30 pm
Posts: 237
Methane as a ghg is a concern but some kind of runaway caused by a clathrate gun probably is not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change

Quote:
Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely. It is suggested that at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists worldwide.[26] Furthermore, there are believed to be another 400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions [27] with 10,000 to 11,000 gigatonnes worldwide.[27] This is large enough that if 10% of the stored methane were released, it would have an effect equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.[28] Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a higher global warming potential than CO2.

Worries about the release of this methane and carbon dioxide is linked to arctic shrinkage. Recent years have seen record low Arctic sea ice. It has been suggested that rapid melting of the sea ice may initiate a feedback loop that rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[29][30] Methane clathrates on the sea-floor have also been predicted to destabilise, but much more slowly.[27]

A release of methane from clathrates, however, is believed to be slow and chronic rather than catastrophic and that 21st-century effects of such a release are therefore likely to be 'significant but not catastrophic'.[28] It is further noted that 'much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere',[31] as it can be dissolved into the ocean and be broken down biologically.[31] Other research[32] demonstrates that a release to the atmosphere can occur during large releases.[clarification needed] These sources suggest that the clathrate gun effect alone will not be sufficient to cause 'catastrophic'[28] climate change within a human lifetime.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:38 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
Posts: 2437
Location: Central Colorado
According to Wayne's sources in the 'runaway' thread, we have been in runaway since 2007. Methane releases are going up geometrically, if you read my links.
I don't like the term clathrate gun, for the whole process. The clathrates explode out in various deposits at various times, increasing with time, but not all at once. The 50+GT ready to release is when the methane turnover effect is passed the tipping point of self generation or the completion of the positive feedback loop. You will see it, and maybe I will, too.
We can no more stop it than we can stop the poles melting. Some see a 50% hope in stopping Thermageddon to GTE, and slowing, then decreasing, CAGW to AGW, back to 350ppm CO2. Although the oceans are releasing large amounts of methane, at the present +1*F it dissolves to saturation, and it goes to the atmosphere explosively at +2*F or 1 to 5 pounds of kinetic pressure.
I consider a single formation of methane hydrate, suddenly releasing from a seaquake to sink any vessels above, is what I call the gun effect. It is the fastest releasing 50GT that will also be like a gun, heating the Arctic above the 6*C it already is, and geo-historically this is beyond the methane turnover point from records of PETM and the End Permian (5*C from other links).
Methane turnover is the better term, and is happening faster than at any point in geo-history. (back to wunderground, and away from wiki)

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:27 am 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
Posts: 2437
Location: Central Colorado
Michael G. O'Brien; Earth will still exist even without life. As new data and events happen, the trajectory can change. We once had a long interglacial from the fact the orbital perturbation and axis tilt wobble do not exactly always coincide close enough. So it is with this; "The next big chill may be overdue. If humans hadn’t boosted levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Earth’s next frosty bout of glacial growth probably would have already started, new research suggests.

For the last 11,700 years, Earth has been on a break between periods of ice expansion called glaciations. A similar interglacial period occurred around 790,000 years ago. A new climate reconstruction based on sediments from an ancient Italian lake shows that this historical interglacial lasted only about 10,800 years. The result suggests that the current interglacial should be wrapping up — but it’s not" https://www.sciencenews.org/.../next-ic ... -be-hold...

Next icy era may be on hold

Carbon emissions from humans may have postponed Earth’s next glaciation, new research suggests.


sciencenews.org
..
However, this time the axis tilt wobble is near maximum and so is the ellipticity of orbit, which would normally lead to increasing snow and nice and albedo change which cools the planet further and keeps it in an ice age until axis tilt minimum and orbital circularity coincide roughly. Volcanic events can change albedo and have an atmospheric cooling effect and ash fall changes albedo for more melt . If the population crash is triggered by a combination of due geologic events like Cascadia, La Palma, and Katla, then the emissions would also lower dramatically. Perhaps to the point that when Yellowstone goes in 2K+ years, it could trigger the ice age at a later date. Only if emissions are decreased enough within a decade or so, otherwise even mighty Yellowstone could not stop the GTE Events. IMEO
On the chance that Cascadia, La Palma, or Katla do not happen within a decade or so, the human population will crash from overpopulation and CAGW effects by the early 2040s, which is too late. It is possible that a nuclear war could put up enough aerosols to cool the planet and kill off much of humanity with nuclear winter and radiation. This could change the trajectory. A one year volcanic or nuclear winter would crash the population, but not take care of momentum, so ten years later it could be hotter than ever. It all depends on when it happens. Not nice events at all, but certainly better than a total methane turnover, and the 'Venus Effect'.
See the Methane Clathrate Gun Time Bomb on Facebook.com

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group