"The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 2/abstractA year ago, but last spring saw Arctic temperatures from 3 to 9*C hotter than the high 1989 record(after AGW set in). Other articles show that the tipping point of methane turnover is a +5*C in the arctic geologic history. According to open ocean warming being in runaway since 2007, and its relentless addition to methane turnover, like a domino effect but even closer and more connected. For example, the oceans are warming faster and releasing more methane than previously thought.
Many refuse to give up trying to make humanity sustainable, and think if we transition to zero carbon by 2050 all will be fine. Others think we can stay within 2*C of warming but have been proven that this is at least .2*C too high to stop thermageddon.
According to the best data and math, reducing to 90% of 1998 HGHG level by Jan 2024 would have worked, but is impossible due to human uncaring and inaction with selfishness.
If Cascadia, La Palma, and Katla all go off, it could crash the population enough to do those emissions reductions. But, will they even stop what is already going on??..... How can we refreeze the Arctic??
Could the super eruption of just Yellowstone do it? Or is Toba needed, too. Could nuclear bombs really set off a super-volcanic eruption? If drilled at appropriate depth and distance, with enough power??? Who will play God?
If it is already an unstoppable process by any means, then not a darn thing will make any difference and it will take an intervention by God to save us and our planetary biosphere that was originally God's Gift. I do not think that most people are worthy, having committed deadly sins, often obliviously.
No matter what happens, the near future of humanity is going to get more miserable