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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:12 pm 
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In the game of truth vs denial, looks like the good guy wins! :mrgreen: :lol:

Climate researcher Bart Strengers :mrgreen: wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm :twisted:

Posted on 28 January 2015 by Guest Author

This is a re-post from My View on Climate Change

Guest post by Bart Strengers. Originally appeared as a news item on the PBL website.

"Late 2009, in the run-up to the international climate conference in Copenhagen, PBL climate researcher Bart Strengers had an online discussion with climate sceptic Hans Labohm on the website of the Dutch news station NOS (in Dutch). This discussion, which was later also published as a PBL report, ended in a wager. Strengers wagered that the mean global temperature over the 2010–2014 period would be higher than the mean over 2000 to 2009. Hans Labohm believed there would be no warming and perhaps even a cooling; for example due to reduced solar activity.

At the request of Labohm, it was decided to use the UAH satellite temperature data set on the lower troposphere (TLT) (roughly the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere). These data sets are compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Satellites are used to measure radiation in the atmosphere, after which the temperature of the various layers of the atmosphere is derived using a complex algorithm.

According to the UAH today, temperatures appear to have been an average 0.1 °C warmer over the past five years than over the 10 years before that. Thus, Strengers has won the wager. The stakes: a good bottle of wine."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/strenge ... abohm.html

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:51 pm 
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Maybe he also got a good bottle of whine to go with it? Milty would probably be going for error bars to indicate the averages could not be compared. :-$

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:35 pm 
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And even after losing, that still probably won't be enough to change his mind that maybe he is wrong and every scientific organization in the world is right.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:05 am 
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Only problem is they are only 38 percent certain that it was warmer. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 8:06 am 
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I was almost right, but forgot the strawman creation aspect .....

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:02 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
Only problem is they are only 38 percent certain that it was warmer. :lol:


They compared the 2010-2014 baseline to the 2000-2010 baseline and found that it was 0.1 Degrees C warmer than 2000-2010 on the dataset they decided on. Falsifying Hans Labohm's prediction.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:22 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
I was almost right, but forgot the strawman creation aspect .....



I created nothing here. This came directly from Gavin Schmidt, NASA, and NOAA.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/ ... d-n1945399

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... right.html

http://www.libertynews.com/2015/01/afte ... on-record/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/19/hot-a ... rd-warmth/

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/gavin- ... test-year/

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/envi ... cord-claim

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:01 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:


Except for the creation of a false connection between your reference (including the ones above) and the stated comparison of the two average temperature baselines based on the UAH measurements as the bet specified. The bet dealt only with specific measured temperatures from 2000 to the present, which exclude the primary issues you referenced indicating one particular year was on average warmer than all of the others on record. A clear creation of a strawman to be "refuted" by the references above.


Quote:
"Late 2009, in the run-up to the international climate conference in Copenhagen, PBL climate researcher Bart Strengers had an online discussion with climate sceptic Hans Labohm on the website of the Dutch news station NOS (in Dutch). This discussion, which was later also published as a PBL report, ended in a wager. Strengers wagered that the mean global temperature over the 2010–2014 period would be higher than the mean over 2000 to 2009. Hans Labohm believed there would be no warming and perhaps even a cooling; for example due to reduced solar activity.

At the request of Labohm, it was decided to use the UAH satellite temperature data set on the lower troposphere (TLT) (roughly the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere). These data sets are compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Satellites are used to measure radiation in the atmosphere, after which the temperature of the various layers of the atmosphere is derived using a complex algorithm.

According to the UAH today, temperatures appear to have been an average 0.1 °C warmer over the past five years than over the 10 years before that. Thus, Strengers has won the wager

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 14, 2015 4:55 pm 
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Science guy versus denialist with 20K posts from each, in a time wasting perpetual argumentwhile we pass tipping point after tipping point and apocalypse arrives, or if already here, will worsen to GTE. No survivors on Earth.
The time we really had to change it was last century. So, fence sitters don't matter and caused the death of our biosphere with their stupidity, greed, sloth, and denialism. ](*,) :razz: #-o :cry: :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2015 6:48 am 
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So it means that this year will be warmer than last year.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:38 am 
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herlbert wrote:
So it means that this year will be warmer than last year.


Not necessarily, but it does mean that this year will probably be warmer than the 30 year average.

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:16 pm 
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I wonder if milt is on this list;
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/12032 ... -327530301
:mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:04 pm 
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I think 2015 has a good shot at being warmer than 2014.

We're already this warm this early in the year, and with a +ENSO event possibly underway, that will only aid in the Global Warmth.

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