Well, I took your little test. Now read this and the links, if you want an environmental education;
I have written on this for several years.
A methane mystery: Scientists probe unanswered questions about methane and climate change | Carbon Brief
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/01 ... te-change/
The minor variations blind them to the speed of change trend. Here, it is easy to extrapolate and written out and graphed for us here;
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/PETM.asp?MR=1
PETM versus modern greenhouse gas emissions
Figure 2. Rate of temperature change today (red) and in the PETM (blue). Temperature rose steadily in the PETM due to the slow release of greenhouse gas (around 2 billion tons per year). Today, fossil fuel burning is leading to 30 billion tons of carbon released into the atmosphere every year, driving temperature up at an incredible rate.
PETM
Current Warming
Cause
Continental drift, volcanoes, methane hydrate melting, fires, permafrost melting----- Anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas, etc)
CO2 emissions
Around 5 billion tons per year then and At least 30 billion tons per year now (36.2GT 2012)
Rate of warming
0.025°C per 100 years then, and 1 to 4°C per 100 years now.
Environmental impact
Ocean circulation reversed, oceans acidified, permafrost melted, peatlands and forests burned in wildfires Observed impacts: significant sea ice decline, extreme drought, more wildfires, increase in glacier melt, more catastrophic floods, ocean acidification, sea level rise, shoreline erosion Potential impacts: degraded air and water quality, permafrost melting, global ocean circulation changes, more violent winter storms and spring tornado seasons, more intense hurricanes
Ecosystem & human impact
Migration of land mammals, extinction of some benthic foraminifera, coral bleaching Observed impacts: Famine and malnutrition due to drought, coral bleaching, species endangerment (e.g. polar bears, marine turtles, North Atlantic whales, giant pandas, orangutans, elephants) Potential impacts: increased mortality from extreme weather and malnutrition, increase in disease vectors, decrease in agricultural yield, mass wildlife migration and extinction, total societal collapse "
Other things I found out; the temperature rise was 16*F in PETM and it started at +10*F from the 20th Century average. There is also more sequestered carbon (from Hansen "Storms of My Grandchildren"). The real temperature rise this time will be 29-32*F, and in less than 500 years. PETM had a 30% ELE and recovered in 150-180K years, with 2 million years to build up species number to what it had been. This time it will take much longer and be much worse---up to a 90% ELE, and actually in progress for some time, "The Sixth Extinction" by Richard Leakey, 1996.
Because I know psychology well, I don't believe that humans will reduce emissions enough in time and we, and 90% of species will go extinct because of inaction of the past 20 years. The humans that can live sustainably like us, are just too few, and the rest will drag us down to death. We are just a subset of exceptionally smart, caring, foresightful, and strong humans without greed and lust driving us. If all people had been alike in this manner, then we never would have had overpopulation which started this mess when coal and oil became dominant energy sources.
The population crash of mid century is from too many people and not enough food, water, money, or easy energy, down to 1-10% survivors, who will face increasing harshness of the rising temperatures. 450 years would be enough to rebuild the population to a new sustainable level, under previous conditions, but with eco-collapses and eco-system failures of necessary systems for human survival, the population will stay small and slowly get smaller until the end.
You people had better think about this while we can still stop it with a 90% reduction in emissions by 2023. We did it. Thousands of others have done it. Now billions have to do it soon. Get rid of greed. Get rid of lust. Get rid of jealousy. Sacrifice for the future kids.
ALL OF OUR LIVES ARE DIMINISHED IF WE ALLOW THIS EXTINCTION.
"R. Shahack-Gross/Qesem Cave Project
Human ancestors regularly built fires, possibly for cooking, starting around 300,000 years ago, say researchers excavating a Middle Eastern cave.
Remnants of an ancient, 4-square-meter hearth in the center of Israel’s Qesem Cave turned up after three seasons of fieldwork led by archaeologist Ruth Shahack-Gross of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel. Shahack-Gross and colleagues suggest in the April Journal of Archaeological Science that the hearth was used for cooking because it lay adjacent to an area where Stone Age hominids cut up deer, wild pigs and other prey into large pieces and another spot where meat was removed from animals’ bones.
“This hearth marks a turning point — for sure in Qesem Cave but maybe also elsewhere — from sporadic to habitual use of fire,” Shahack-Gross says."
Of course, AGW did not start until after fossil fuels and overpopulation were setting in, and we surpassed the Earth's ability to absorb the HGHGs in the early 1900s.