I have finally seen the light that many of you have been trying to show me from the very beginning. I am now convinced that recent climate change now has humans as the dominant factor. The reason? The continued disconnect with Solar Activity with temperature change.
Earlier, I thought it could be bought that there was some sort of a lag between solar activity and climate change. However, new data continues to roll in with Ocean Heat Content change and Sea Level Rise, and they both continue to be positive. This suggests that the sun, perhaps one of the major drivers of climate change over the last 10,000 years or so, no longer has a dominant role. That is simply astounding.
As we can see in a paper from Levitus et al.
, the heat content continues to increase even while solar activity has reached very low levels.
Some skeptics have tried to bring uncertainty into the debate, citing that OHC change may not be reliable. However, even if OHC change is not reliable, it can be discerned that the Earth continues to remain in a positive energy imbalance through Sea Level Rise. Church et al. 2008 documents such a continued increase in SLR, even during the recent very low period of solar activity.
Sea Level Rise continuing to rise is likely a product of both thermal expansion and glacial retreat. Since land temperatures have not warmed statistically significantly since 1998, it is likely that these SLR changes are coming from thermal expansion in the oceans (Fyfe et al. 2013
Natural Factors cannot explain recent changes with the pattern of warming either. Such changes are consistent with a dominant cause from Greenhouse Gases, Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, and perhaps a minor role for stratospheric water vapor changes (Lastovicka et al. 2008
The vast majority of studies support a climate sensitivity of around 3 Degrees C. A portion of these studies come from analyzing paleoclimate change in the past. Many authors came to the conclusion that a low sensitivity cannot explain such large fluctuations in the past, thus net feedbacks have to be positive. (PALAEOENS 2012
Thus, I can call myself a converted skeptic on the causes of Global Warming. I suspect that once this -PDO phase of sequestering the extra energy into the oceans is finished, and we revert back to the +PDO phase in twenty years or so, we should see very high rates of warming at the surface, irrespective of what the sun decides to do, since it clearly does not have a dominant say in what happens with the climate anymore.