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The Conversion of a Skeptic
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Author:  Snowy123 [ Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  The Conversion of a Skeptic

Hi everyone.

I have finally seen the light that many of you have been trying to show me from the very beginning. I am now convinced that recent climate change now has humans as the dominant factor. The reason? The continued disconnect with Solar Activity with temperature change.

Earlier, I thought it could be bought that there was some sort of a lag between solar activity and climate change. However, new data continues to roll in with Ocean Heat Content change and Sea Level Rise, and they both continue to be positive. This suggests that the sun, perhaps one of the major drivers of climate change over the last 10,000 years or so, no longer has a dominant role. That is simply astounding.

As we can see in a paper from Levitus et al., the heat content continues to increase even while solar activity has reached very low levels.

Image

Some skeptics have tried to bring uncertainty into the debate, citing that OHC change may not be reliable. However, even if OHC change is not reliable, it can be discerned that the Earth continues to remain in a positive energy imbalance through Sea Level Rise. Church et al. 2008 documents such a continued increase in SLR, even during the recent very low period of solar activity.

Image

Sea Level Rise continuing to rise is likely a product of both thermal expansion and glacial retreat. Since land temperatures have not warmed statistically significantly since 1998, it is likely that these SLR changes are coming from thermal expansion in the oceans (Fyfe et al. 2013).

Natural Factors cannot explain recent changes with the pattern of warming either. Such changes are consistent with a dominant cause from Greenhouse Gases, Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, and perhaps a minor role for stratospheric water vapor changes (Lastovicka et al. 2008).

The vast majority of studies support a climate sensitivity of around 3 Degrees C. A portion of these studies come from analyzing paleoclimate change in the past. Many authors came to the conclusion that a low sensitivity cannot explain such large fluctuations in the past, thus net feedbacks have to be positive. (PALAEOENS 2012).

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Thus, I can call myself a converted skeptic on the causes of Global Warming. I suspect that once this -PDO phase of sequestering the extra energy into the oceans is finished, and we revert back to the +PDO phase in twenty years or so, we should see very high rates of warming at the surface, irrespective of what the sun decides to do, since it clearly does not have a dominant say in what happens with the climate anymore.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

I am glad you understand how this has happened. There are many several times your age that still cannot grasp it .... or possibly they never wanted to grasp it.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

The truly sad part is that you will be dealing with the effects long after my generation is gone. We should not leave such problems to the later generations, but there are some who truly do not care.

Author:  Fosgate [ Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

Congratulations. =D> I think most folks know better, deep down, yet are unwilling to outwardly accept that they are part of such a destructive force. They shelter in personal beliefs. Mind you, I do too. I just don't think it is necessary to simultaneously dismiss science.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

Fosgate wrote:
Congratulations. =D> I think most folks know better, deep down, yet are unwilling to outwardly accept that they are part of such a destructive force. They shelter in personal beliefs. Mind you, I do too. I just don't think it is necessary to simultaneously dismiss science.


There are things that I am still skeptical about, like how much storm intensity will be impacted by future warming. I think the literature is fairly divided on say, how hurricane frequency and intensity will change with warming.

Author:  Fosgate [ Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

Snowy123 wrote:
There are things that I am still skeptical about, like how much storm intensity will be impacted by future warming. I think the literature is fairly divided on say, how hurricane frequency and intensity will change with warming.


You can't go wrong with sunblock and waders.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

Speaking of not going wrong, how has your schoolwork been going? The son of an associate, who is just a little older than you, is finding the requirements for acceptance to university in the UK is different from those in the US. If he had known earlier he might have been abel to tweak his high school classes a little better. One or two of the conditional acceptance offers cannot be met, but he still has some choices to make between the schools there and here.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Tue May 20, 2014 3:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Conversion of a Skeptic

Behind The Times - another manufactured climate controversy conspiracy theory
Posted on 19 May 2014 by dana1981

"Here we go again. The latest IPCC report, the US National Climate Assessment report, and a report published by US military researchers all recently warned us yet again about the risks associated with human-caused climate change. While the planet continues to warm, ice continues to melt, and sea levels continue to rise, the conservative media are trying to distract everyone from these scientific realities with a shiny quarter named Lennart Bengtsson.

Bengtsson is a meteorologist at the University of Reading, who recently decided to join a political advocacy group, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). The GWPF is known for downplaying the risks posed by human-caused global warming with shoddy scientific arguments, then arguing against taking any meaningful action to address the problem.

The GWPF has called the IPCC a "deeply discredited organisation" and worse, and has accused climate scientists of being delusional or liars. The group also recently set up a new campaigning arm, which would be free from charity regulations requiring that any information they put out is fair and as accurate as possible."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/behind- ... heory.html
I guess Milt and flog are probably in the GWPF or the like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAhZ1fA1AJs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-BbPBg ... 64&index=2

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