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Ecological overshoot.
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Author:  Dingo [ Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:53 am ]
Post subject:  Ecological overshoot.

For 2014 we have used up our resource dividend for the year. Here is an introduction to the topic of overshoot.
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2014/08/19/years-ecological-debt-has-begun

Here on video a panel of experts go into the matter in greater detail.

Part one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBUYhXQU0Mk#t=30

Part two.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FfSnLCvVMc

Part three.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H1zIAJShDc

Part four.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNA8f8WAXjQ

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ecological overshoot.

Over the years I have read where humans are using up to 11 "Earths", and here 1.5 or so. It really depends on if you are looking at the depletion/regeneration rates of everything.
My research has indicated that we are using up some resources at 100 times their regeneration rate, and oil and coal at 500,000 times their regeneration rate. Pollution is roughly 1000 times the natural systems' absorption rate on average.
So, population overshoot is way past sustainable long term, by up to 1000 times. Unless people clean up their act within 8 years or so. Rotsa ruck! :mrgreen:

Author:  Tali_Zorah [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Ecological overshoot.

On the other hand, nature was able to deal with so many threats over the ages and it was always victorious. Shouldn't it be like when we cross the line we will be taught a lesson? Or maybe human impact is already too great?

Author:  Dingo [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ecological overshoot.

Tali_Zorah wrote:
On the other hand, nature was able to deal with so many threats over the ages and it was always victorious. Shouldn't it be like when we cross the line we will be taught a lesson? Or maybe human impact is already too great?


Welcome to the forum TZ.

Nature in some aspect will survive. The question is will we be along for the ride.

There is a perspective that says we are simply mastering the world. Well in one sense that is true but I don't think we are wise enough to master the fall out from that appearance of mastery.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Ecological overshoot.

Tali_Zorah wrote:
On the other hand, nature was able to deal with so many threats over the ages and it was always victorious. Shouldn't it be like when we cross the line we will be taught a lesson? Or maybe human impact is already too great?

It is quite possible human impact, including 'momentum', is passed the tipping point of methane turnover.
I like to think that our best hope is the 95% emissions reduction from today, by Jan. 2024.
Then continuing heat rise to maximum within tolerable level and slow decline to 350 ppm in 400 years.
That is what overshoot has led to, yet there are still questions like; What is the exact thermal gain average point of completion of the 2009 started positive feedback loop completion? It looks like less than 2*C is very bad and 5*C
is what has triggered past CAGW episodes.
People are already being taught a lesson on over polluting the planet for so long. The lesson is not being absorbed by most.
This is what we are trying to change, rather than go the total catastrophe route to extinction.

"300,000+ Demand Climate Action Now at Largest Climate March in World History

Stefanie Spear | September 21, 2014 2:57 pm |

Today in New York City more than 300,000 people attended what is now known as the largest climate action in world history.

The march in New York City was by far the largest of the 2,808 People’s Climate rallies that took place today in 166 countries from around the world. From the crowded streets of New Delhi to Melbourne to Johannesburg, hundreds of thousands of people took part in the weekend’s global events.

“This is the most important day yet in the history of the climate movement—around the world and across New York people have said ‘enough is enough—we demand serious action now,’” said Bill McKibben co-founder of 350.org."
http://ecowatch.com/2014/09/21/peoples- ... 6-85901709

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