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Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2
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Author:  Snowy123 [ Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Something I've noticed is the Global Temperature anomaly on GISS can be accurately "predicted" based on the WeatherBell CFSv2. Simply add 0.55 to 0.6 to the WeatherBell anomaly to get the "predicted" value for GISS. It doesn't work all the time, but it works most of the time. Adding 0.55 to 0.6 to the WeatherBell value comes from the fact that the 1981-2010 baseline, which the CFSv2 uses is about +0.4 warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline on GISS. In addition, the CFSv2 has an additional cool bias by about 0.15 to 0.2 Degrees C or so, so that needs to be accounted for. This technique doesn't work well "predicting" satellite based temperature output from RSS/UAH because the CFSv2 is a reanalysis of surface temperatures, while satellites measure the lower bulk atmosphere.

Thus, using this method, we can "predict" the GISS December temperature anomaly to be between +0.73 to +0.79 from WeatherBell, assuming a CFSv2 December anomaly between +0.18 and +0.19. This means it is extremely likely that we see the second warmest or warmest December on record according to GISS. It is also extremely likely that 2014 will be the warmest year on record on GISS/NCDC/HadCruT4 based off of this.

Image

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

Author:  Snowy123 [ Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

This is particularly impressive that we have a high chance at seeing a record warm year, because this is in spite of one of the weakest solar cycles in one hundred years. 1998 also saw very strong +ENSO conditions, while this year the conditions are much more benign. Yet we are surpassing 1998 in sea surface temperatures, surface temperatures, ocean heat content, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic forcing has never been more clear than now.

The main driver of the climate for thousands of years, solar variability is no longer having a dominant effect on temperatures, and that to me is astounding.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Yes, the implications are very scary for me and more so when I think of those like yourself who will be dealing with even more than I will since I am much older.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Wayne Stollings wrote:
Yes, the implications are very scary for me and more so when I think of those like yourself who will be dealing with even more than I will since I am much older.


I think a good question is when we will go into the triple digits with the GISS temperature anomaly. We saw a month this year where the anomaly was +0.81 Degrees C. This is without a strong +ENSO and with a weak solar cycle. I think we could reach triple digits on GISS the next time a very strong +ENSO event comes along.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

But I agree that it's not a good look right now for the future. Especially if the studies published earlier this year are right, and we already reached a tipping point with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estiy concern is mate of Global Temperature from C

My main concern is reaching the tipping point of the completion of the Arctic Tundra positive feedback loop of self-sustained releases. The start of the tipping point was hit in 2009, with completion less than 20 years later. A group of scientists became the Arctic Methane Emergency Group.
Time is running out on climate denial
Posted on 30 December 2014 by dana1981

"From a strictly logical perspective, it’s hard to understand how we can be doing so little to slow global warming. Greg Craven summarized why by examining the extreme possible outcomes in his viral climate ‘decision grid’ video."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/time-ru ... enial.html

The problem is that video was 2007. It is worse now. It is improbable that people will reduce emissions even close to 90% of 1998 level, unless they are hit by due geologic and financial events which start a population crash in time. Otherwise the only way to save the biosphere then will be to cause a super-volcanic eruption.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Wed Dec 31, 2014 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estiy concern is mate of Global Temperature from C

Johhny Electriglide wrote:

The problem is that video was 2007. It is worse now. It is improbable that people will reduce emissions even close to 90% of 1998 level, unless they are hit by due geologic and financial events which start a population crash in time. Otherwise the only way to save the biosphere then will be to cause a super-volcanic eruption.


That would be horrible for portions of the biosphere if we saw a huge volcanic eruption.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

2014 was the warmest year ever on record according to the JMA.

Author:  herlbert [ Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Yeah, it's true. However, I read in one article that temperature is getting hotter.

http://mic.com/articles/107760/one-char ... is-getting

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estiy concern is mate of Global Temperature from C

Snowy123 wrote:
Johhny Electriglide wrote:

The problem is that video was 2007. It is worse now. It is improbable that people will reduce emissions even close to 90% of 1998 level, unless they are hit by due geologic and financial events which start a population crash in time. Otherwise the only way to save the biosphere then will be to cause a super-volcanic eruption.


That would be horrible for portions of the biosphere if we saw a huge volcanic eruption.

Yes, but not as bad as another thermal max event and one that is a worse ELE than ever seen.
All Toba did was cause a 10*F temperature drop for 10 years and it killed off 99.9% of humans,
a bottleneck, but not an ELE. Because there is substantially more sequestered carbon than ever before,
a thermal max could even go to full turnover with eventual "Venus Effect".
The end of a positive feedback loop caused by human overpopulation and extreme pollution.
Nothing like it except the cyanobacteria that changed the world to animal friendly! :mrgreen:
Its a hell of a thing to kill a world.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Roughly 2/3 of January is now in the record books, so we should be starting to get a rough idea how this month will shape up. There are still twelve days of the month to go, so there are uncertainties with this estimate. So far, the CFSv2 is putting January at a +0.14 anomaly. That means we can expect a GISS temperature anomaly this month to be between +0.69 and +0.74. It is implausible that January 2015 will be the warmest on record, since January 2007 was ridiculously warm at +0.92 on GISS. It is likely however, that January 2015 will place as one of the top five warmest Januaries on record on GISS. It is extremely likely that 2015 will start off well above the 20th Century average on GISS.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

March so far is at a +0.16 on the WeatherBell CFS. Daily numbers have skyrocketed to +0.4.

That number will go up.

February will probably be the second warmest month on record on GISS.

March has a shot at one of the top five warmest Marches this year.

Even if we maintain 2014's warmth from April onward, we would still finish with a record warm year.

And with a Kelvin Wave promoting warmer water temperatures in ENSO subsurface regions, if we do get a stronger +ENSO event later this year, this year will be that much warmer.

Image

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Snowy123 wrote:
March has a shot at one of the top five warmest Marches this year.



Sorry, I had to point out this minor faux pas. Every March is the warmest one they have that year because we have only one March not five .... :razz: \:D/

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Rough Estimate of Global Temperature from CFSv2

Right now the CFSv2 is at +0.58 for the month. That would support a GISS equivalent of +1.18 to +1.28, the highest anomaly ever recorded on GISS.

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