Meeting two degree climate target means 80 per cent of world's coal is unburnable, study says
Posted on 6 February 2015 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Roz Pidcock at Carbon Brief
"More than 80 per cent of the world's known coal reserves need to stay in the ground to avoid dangerous climate change, according to new research. Thirty per cent of known oil and 50 per cent of gas reserves are unburnable and drilling in the Arctic is out of the question if we're to stay below two degrees, the new research notes.
That vast amounts of fossil fuels must go unused if we're to keep warming in check isn't a new idea. What's novel about today's paper is that it pinpoints how much fuel is unburnable in specific regions of the world, from Canadian tar sands to the oil-rich Middle East.
Unburnable carbon
In its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculatedhow much carbon we can emit and still keep a decent chance of limiting warming to two degrees above pre-industrial levels. This is known as a carbon budget. Two degrees is theinternationally-accepted point beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high.
As of 2010, we could release a maximum of about 1000 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide and still have a 50:50 chance of staying below two degrees, according to the IPCC."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/meeting ... nable.html
From the previous post we know that even that is NOT enough to stop CAGW to GTE. I would say people will just not do it. Too much sacrifice from their selfishness, and too little care about the children of the future. I think not more than 1.8*C, rounded up to 2 is not going to happen and the 2 was a mistake in science. In the past a 1.5*C gain did not start a runaway, but a 5*C Arctic warming DID, both with PETM and the Permian ELE.
We just don't see it as a species, so are doomed to extinction and taking probably every species with us. The extremophobes near volcanic vents would only make it if it is 'just' a high percentage and not complete methane 'turnover'.
Both the Permian and PETM were partial turnovers, and PETM was not a true ELE(30% and not the 50% for the definition), but took 30 million years to completely heal. The heating is going up 10 times faster than PETM and is accelerating toward 40 times faster and more.
It is hard to admit that we are in a runaway right now and it will progress to assisting our population crash then eventually killing all the survivors.
I do believe that drilling mile deep holes every 4 or 5 miles around the Yellowstone magma chamber, 1/4 mile away, and at least 120 total MGT devices are simultaneously detonated is feasible to stop the process of CAGW to GTE. It would probably be a long enough winter of ten years and a ten degree F reduction in temps until the sun shines again through the settled aerosols. The population bottleneck would ensure most and our own species survival, and of course cut down the HGHGs to near zero. There is a time limit for this to work, too.
For links and more info look at the thread "the Fourth Tipping Point".
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