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2014 one for the record books ...
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Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:29 pm ]
Post subject:  2014 one for the record books ...

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12


Global Highlights

The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).


The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average.


The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12


Global Highlights

The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).


The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average.


The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.


GISS saw the second warmest December ever on record, and the warmest year ever on record as well. December 2014 came in at +0.72. 2014 came in at +0.68. Warmest year on record without a strong +ENSO event and with low solar activity. Extremely impressive. How warm do you think we would have gotten Wayne if we saw higher solar activity/a strong +ENSO event on top of the anthropogenic warming trend?

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

Also of note, I didn't do too badly "predicting" the GISS temperature anomaly. Median "prediction" was +0.76. Came in as +0.72.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=24787

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12


Global Highlights

The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).


The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average.


The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.


GISS saw the second warmest December ever on record, and the warmest year ever on record as well. December 2014 came in at +0.72. 2014 came in at +0.68. Warmest year on record without a strong +ENSO event and with low solar activity. Extremely impressive. How warm do you think we would have gotten Wayne if we saw higher solar activity/a strong +ENSO event on top of the anthropogenic warming trend?

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

Also of note, I didn't do too badly "predicting" the GISS temperature anomaly. Median "prediction" was +0.76. Came in as +0.72.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=24787


I suspect that when solar activity picks up again that we will wish for cool years like 2014 .... which is scary enough as it is, but it does not appear to be addressed in any real fashion by the governments.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12


Global Highlights

The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).


The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average.


The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.


GISS saw the second warmest December ever on record, and the warmest year ever on record as well. December 2014 came in at +0.72. 2014 came in at +0.68. Warmest year on record without a strong +ENSO event and with low solar activity. Extremely impressive. How warm do you think we would have gotten Wayne if we saw higher solar activity/a strong +ENSO event on top of the anthropogenic warming trend?

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

Also of note, I didn't do too badly "predicting" the GISS temperature anomaly. Median "prediction" was +0.76. Came in as +0.72.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=24787


I suspect that when solar activity picks up again that we will wish for cool years like 2014 .... which is scary enough as it is, but it does not appear to be addressed in any real fashion by the governments.


I know Lean and Rind show the solar variability contribution to be something on the order of 0.1 Degrees C from minimum to peak (Figure 1). ENSO impacts it by 0.1 to 0.2 Degrees C. So if those two come together alongside the secular trend, we could be seeing some very high numbers on GISS/NCDC soon.

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL038932.pdf

Image

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12


Global Highlights

The December 2014 average combined global land and ocean surface temperature was record high in the 135-year period of record, at 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).


The December 2014 globally-averaged land surface temperature was the third highest on record, at 1.36°C (2.45°F) above average. The globally-averaged ocean surface temperature was also third highest for December on record, at 0.55°C (0.99°F) above average.


The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–December 2014 was the highest on record among all years in the 135-year period of record, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.


GISS saw the second warmest December ever on record, and the warmest year ever on record as well. December 2014 came in at +0.72. 2014 came in at +0.68. Warmest year on record without a strong +ENSO event and with low solar activity. Extremely impressive. How warm do you think we would have gotten Wayne if we saw higher solar activity/a strong +ENSO event on top of the anthropogenic warming trend?

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... s+dSST.txt

Also of note, I didn't do too badly "predicting" the GISS temperature anomaly. Median "prediction" was +0.76. Came in as +0.72.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=24787


I suspect that when solar activity picks up again that we will wish for cool years like 2014 .... which is scary enough as it is, but it does not appear to be addressed in any real fashion by the governments.


Snowy123 wrote:
I know Lean and Rind show the solar variability contribution to be something on the order of 0.1 Degrees C from minimum to peak (Figure 1). ENSO impacts it by 0.1 to 0.2 Degrees C. So if those two come together alongside the secular trend, we could be seeing some very high numbers on GISS/NCDC soon.

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL038932.pdf

Image


Yes, and I can only imagine the longer term trend.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Wayne Stollings wrote:

Yes, and I can only imagine the longer term trend.


I think there's a good chance we also see Ocean Heat Content and Sea Levels set new record highs for 2014 when the data for October-December is released by the NODC.

Author:  Milton Banana [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

2008 wasn't the hottest year. 2010 wasn't the hottest year. Are you beginning to see a pattern develop here?

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpre ... -the-data/

Quote:
Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released Wednesday by researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

The two years differed by less than 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit. The difference is smaller than the uncertainty in comparing the temperatures of recent years, putting them into a statistical tie.


Quote:
2) NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but a different baseline period. They also employ their own methods to estimate global temperatures.

This refers to the NCDC dataset. What is interesting is their reference to “estimating global temperatures”. This is a clear admission that measuring global temperatures is not the exact art sometimes inferred, but largely guesswork.



3) This is the latest in a series of warm years, in a series of warm decades

This has, of course, been the get out clause since the pause started. But why should we be surprised that temperatures have remained stable for the last decade or so?

It simply shows that the Earth has found a new equilibrium. I would suggest that there really would be concern if global temperatures started to tumble back to 1970 levels.


As has been said elsewhere, with satellite temperatures indicating that 2014 was nowhere near a record, the divergence between actual temperatures and those scary models becomes ever greater and important.

That is why the likes of Gavin Schmidt has to resort to misrepresenting the data.


So, as usual climate science has to find a way to misrepresent the data. Claim a splash of a conclusion (that is really within the margin of error) to get a big headline. Pathetic fail as usual. But you guys go on patting each other on the back so you can appear concerned.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Milton Banana wrote:
2008 wasn't the hottest year. 2010 wasn't the hottest year. Are you beginning to see a pattern develop here?

So, as usual climate science has to find a way to misrepresent the data. Claim a splash of a conclusion (that is really within the margin of error) to get a big headline. Pathetic fail as usual. But you guys go on patting each other on the back so you can appear concerned.


I don't think 2008 was ever the warmest year on any dataset.

I agree that the numbers are not significantly different from each other, and thus it's fair to say that there is a statistical tie between all of the years (2005, 2010 and 2014). However, numerically, it was the highest ever recorded.

Though we should not have even approached such high levels with a neutral ENSO phase and weak solar activity.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Milton Banana wrote:
2008 wasn't the hottest year. 2010 wasn't the hottest year. Are you beginning to see a pattern develop here?

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpre ... -the-data/

Quote:
Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released Wednesday by researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

The two years differed by less than 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit. The difference is smaller than the uncertainty in comparing the temperatures of recent years, putting them into a statistical tie.


Quote:
2) NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but a different baseline period. They also employ their own methods to estimate global temperatures.

This refers to the NCDC dataset. What is interesting is their reference to “estimating global temperatures”. This is a clear admission that measuring global temperatures is not the exact art sometimes inferred, but largely guesswork.



3) This is the latest in a series of warm years, in a series of warm decades

This has, of course, been the get out clause since the pause started. But why should we be surprised that temperatures have remained stable for the last decade or so?

It simply shows that the Earth has found a new equilibrium. I would suggest that there really would be concern if global temperatures started to tumble back to 1970 levels.


As has been said elsewhere, with satellite temperatures indicating that 2014 was nowhere near a record, the divergence between actual temperatures and those scary models becomes ever greater and important.

That is why the likes of Gavin Schmidt has to resort to misrepresenting the data.


So, as usual climate science has to find a way to misrepresent the data. Claim a splash of a conclusion (that is really within the margin of error) to get a big headline. Pathetic fail as usual. But you guys go on patting each other on the back so you can appear concerned.


Misrepresent the data? Not as much as you and your sources do, but then again that is why the people you quote have not been published in any peer reviewed scientific journals and the people you claim are "wrong" have been .... repeatedly. There is a small statistical problem with comparing temperatures over the global scale in the short term, but when that only means you are left with one of the last few years being the warmest on average while also trying to claim there is no warmest year ... really.

Author:  Milton Banana [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Okay, lets use your guys.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/ ... re2014.pdf

Quote:
James Hansena, Makiko Satoa,b, Reto Ruedyc, Gavin A. Schmidtb, Ken Loc

Abstract. Global surface temperature in 2014 was +0.68°C (~1.2°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period in the GISTEMP analysis, making 2014 the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, but the difference from the prior warmest year (2010), less than 0.02°C, is within uncertainty of measurement. The eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States was persistently cool in 2014, cooler than the 1951-1980 average in all seasons.


Within the margin of error. This study PROVES nothing.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Milton Banana wrote:
Okay, lets use your guys.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/ ... re2014.pdf

Quote:
James Hansena, Makiko Satoa,b, Reto Ruedyc, Gavin A. Schmidtb, Ken Loc

Abstract. Global surface temperature in 2014 was +0.68°C (~1.2°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period in the GISTEMP analysis, making 2014 the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, but the difference from the prior warmest year (2010), less than 0.02°C, is within uncertainty of measurement. The eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States was persistently cool in 2014, cooler than the 1951-1980 average in all seasons.


Within the margin of error. This study PROVES nothing.



It provides EVIDENCE the recent temperature is WARMER on a global scale than it was in the past century of measurements. A FACT you consistently try to hide in your references.

Author:  Milton Banana [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Global? Except for the eastern United States and only a warming (according to this one study) and only .02. Yes, lets go off half cocked over that. Complete desperation is unbecoming.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Milton Banana wrote:
Global? Except for the eastern United States and only a warming (according to this one study) and only .02. Yes, lets go off half cocked over that. Complete desperation is unbecoming.


Yes global, as in the global average. "Global surface temperature" was the first phrase your quote, just after the word "Abstract". Perhaps you should either become better educated or mor honest before trying to hold such a discussion in the future.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

Milton Banana wrote:
Global? Except for the eastern United States and only a warming (according to this one study) and only .02. Yes, lets go off half cocked over that. Complete desperation is unbecoming.


The Eastern United States is an infinitesimally small portion of the globe, and doesn't disprove 2014 being a record warm year numerically on a global scale. Especially when you look at how the Eastern United States fared compared with the rest of the globe.

Image

The point still stands though. We should not have gotten nearly this warm with a neutral ENSO phase and with one of the weakest solar cycles in one hundred years. Natural factors cannot fully explain why 2014 was as warm as it was. That in conjuncture with the magnitude of ocean heat content increase and the temperature trends in the stratosphere are a silver bullet argument for anthropogenic forcing being dominant now.

Author:  Milton Banana [ Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2014 one for the record books ...

And, as usual when some say hang on a minute a bunch of people start back tracking.

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/201 ... ability-2/

Quote:
Gavin is playing his usual game, trying to cover his ass with “uncertainty” that wasn’t mentioned in the NASA press release.


The following is a tweet put out by Gavin Schmidt.

Image

Quote:
They get the propaganda out there for the White House and major news outlets, then try to generate implausible deniability through back channels like twitter. None of this was mentioned in the NASA press release.


Oh, now we're not so sure about our facts now are we. You see NOAA and NASA are a full 10 percentage points different about their certainty if 2014 was the warming year. Sounds like great climate science to me. We're only 38 percent sure 2014 was the warmest year on record. Good God this is exactly why the majority of the population don't believe a bleeping word you people say.

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