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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:31 pm 
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http://fortune.com/2014/12/21/why-the-n ... over-food/

The world has a massive food crisis on its hands. The crisis is so big that organizations like theWorld Bank and the United Nations say there won’t be enough food to feed the global population when it jumps from the current seven billion people to nine billion by 2050.

Some research even suggests a food scarcity crunch as early as 2030 – just 15 years from now.

The reasons? Severe weather events like droughts and floods, economic hardships, and political unrest in underdeveloped countries, as well as agribusiness expansion.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:35 pm 
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Even with the population stable, there won't be enough food as aquifers deplete and irrigation stops, as soils turn to sterile sand, floods, early and late frosts, high winds, and disrupted distribution, along with more expensive factory farming.
The actual peak food was in the 1990s to 2000s, a very rounded 'peak'. By mid century the food output will be about half of that for 6 billion people, or well under the sedentary starvation level with even distribution. Sure, people will fight for food and water, turn cannibal and even drink their own urine.
Wars increase, along with malnutrition and low immunity with diseases more fatal. The increasing heat itself will cause more hostility along with more crowding.
The death rate increases to greater than the birth rate, with a very steep population decline.
Starting before 2030 and finishing just after mid century, followed by thermal max effects.
Unless a 'natural' disaster precipitates an earlier crash. Perhaps early enough to bring down emissions 90%+ in the next decade.
I think Cascadia or the La Palma slide could easily ruin the USA and cause world depression and mass starvation. If Katla causes a volcanic winter, the same.
After 2030 will be too late for anything but a Yellowstone eruption to change it from the thermal max trajectory, and after around 2100, it will be too late for even that to stop GTE.
Ruin of the biosphere could also happen with a nuclear war well over nuclear winter size.
Major bad things will happen in the lives of those living in 15 years. The party will be over. :-k :shock: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: =; :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 4:15 pm 
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I imagine if you have enough water and energy you can batch together something that will pass as food and even get it distributed. Potable water appears to be key. The thing about the rich countries taking food from the poor is the food ties up most of the useable water supply. In the long run trading most of your food for railroads and electrical grids does not appear to be a very good bargain or for that matter giving up biodiversity to grow coffee for foreign cash.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 8:22 pm 
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These wild ass predictions never come to pass. Ever. Yet, people just jump on them hook, line, and sinker every time one is barfed up by some crackpot. I stopped reading here:

Quote:
To address food security, we need a shift in the way we address poverty and inequality in the world,” Stephen Scanlan, a professor of sociology at Ohio University. “There should be a reframing of food as a fundamental human right in a way that governments actually stand by.


More fabricated crisis in the name of redistribution and the grabbing of power. Same old leftist tactics. But, it got the old usual suspects here all worked up. :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 8:36 pm 
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You want to fix this problem export capitalism around the world.

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We did this with high tech, high yield agriculture. In 1800 it took 74 percent of the population to grow the food. Today, with many more mouths to feed, it takes just 2.7 percent of the population to grow the food. Before high yield techniques 50 percent of the world population has faced the possibility of hunger. Today that number is down to 5 percent. To do this we vastly improved many varieties of food plants. This was done to a certain extent by farms taking seeds from their best plants. This led to many improvement and a hybrid corn variety. Then we began to understand plant genetics. This led to a new genetically engineered strain of wheat and rice with built in disease resistance that won a Nobel Peace Prize for Dr. Norman Borlaug. The new wheat and rice thrives in the Third World. Africa for the first time is about to become rice self sufficient. Yields for corn for livestock have tripled, with 90 percent of the food value of non-fat dry milk. Shorter season strains have pushed the corn belt another 500 miles to the north. This greatly benefits Canada, Russia, and China.
New strains of sunflower, coffee, cassava, alfalfa, soybeans, and trees are starting up in India, Africa, and Central America. South America is looking to quadruple yields of palm oil, cocoa, rubber, and wood. Crops are being developed that can be irrigated with sea water. This will greatly benefit the Middle East.
Modern no till methods reduce erosion by 50 percent, and new irrigation techniques save water. Sprinkler, drip, and trailing tube irrigation systems double the efficiency of water use. New fertilizers and pesticides are very important to the equation. Informed use is very important. All of this technology has been exported in one form or another. We either sell it directly, or people from other countries attend our universities and take the knowledge back to their countries. These techniques are widely used in Canada, Europe, and now China. Today, the United States exports 37 million metric tons of wheat, and over 40 million metric tons of corn.


Modern agriculture is mankind's greatest achievement of the 20th century. History indicates more advancements will improve it in the future. I think we'll fix this problem and be just fine.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 8:46 pm 
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Just another thought. If this is such a big problem than perhaps we should stop putting food (corn) into petroleum (gasoline) to burn in our cars. [-(

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:48 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
Just another thought. If this is such a big problem than perhaps we should stop putting food (corn) into petroleum (gasoline) to burn in our cars. [-(

It must be a nice feeling to make sense for once. =D>

Now back to your usual.

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You want to fix this problem export capitalism around the world.

What you quoted made no mention of capitalism.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:33 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
These wild ass predictions never come to pass. Ever. Yet, people just jump on them hook, line, and sinker every time one is barfed up by some crackpot. I stopped reading here:

Quote:
To address food security, we need a shift in the way we address poverty and inequality in the world,” Stephen Scanlan, a professor of sociology at Ohio University. “There should be a reframing of food as a fundamental human right in a way that governments actually stand by.


More fabricated crisis in the name of redistribution and the grabbing of power. Same old leftist tactics. But, it got the old usual suspects here all worked up. :mrgreen:


Perhaps you can explain exactly how we can continue to feed an increasing human population? The fact is that we have already seen nations prohibit food exports because of internal food shortages and those nations needing food have very little to loose if they are starving.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:40 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
You want to fix this problem export capitalism around the world.

Quote:
We did this with high tech, high yield agriculture. In 1800 it took 74 percent of the population to grow the food. Today, with many more mouths to feed, it takes just 2.7 percent of the population to grow the food. Before high yield techniques 50 percent of the world population has faced the possibility of hunger. Today that number is down to 5 percent. To do this we vastly improved many varieties of food plants. This was done to a certain extent by farms taking seeds from their best plants. This led to many improvement and a hybrid corn variety. Then we began to understand plant genetics. This led to a new genetically engineered strain of wheat and rice with built in disease resistance that won a Nobel Peace Prize for Dr. Norman Borlaug. The new wheat and rice thrives in the Third World. Africa for the first time is about to become rice self sufficient. Yields for corn for livestock have tripled, with 90 percent of the food value of non-fat dry milk. Shorter season strains have pushed the corn belt another 500 miles to the north. This greatly benefits Canada, Russia, and China.
New strains of sunflower, coffee, cassava, alfalfa, soybeans, and trees are starting up in India, Africa, and Central America. South America is looking to quadruple yields of palm oil, cocoa, rubber, and wood. Crops are being developed that can be irrigated with sea water. This will greatly benefit the Middle East.
Modern no till methods reduce erosion by 50 percent, and new irrigation techniques save water. Sprinkler, drip, and trailing tube irrigation systems double the efficiency of water use. New fertilizers and pesticides are very important to the equation. Informed use is very important. All of this technology has been exported in one form or another. We either sell it directly, or people from other countries attend our universities and take the knowledge back to their countries. These techniques are widely used in Canada, Europe, and now China. Today, the United States exports 37 million metric tons of wheat, and over 40 million metric tons of corn.


Modern agriculture is mankind's greatest achievement of the 20th century. History indicates more advancements will improve it in the future. I think we'll fix this problem and be just fine.


Clueless as ever I see. Fewer people work to produce food because we use fossil fuels, you know that finite resource you seem to believe will never be depleated. Export the increased consumption and that will "solve" the problem? How will we continue to produce the wheat and corn in the mid-west after we sufficiently deplete the aquafers? The fights over water rights are only legal at this point in time, but as the reservoirs are also depleted, what then? California is pulling every drop of water form any source it can now and any increase in drought cycles will easily overpower those efforts.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:42 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
Just another thought. If this is such a big problem than perhaps we should stop putting food (corn) into petroleum (gasoline) to burn in our cars. [-(


True, but they will still need to have fuel for the mechanization you touted as being the way to feed the planet.

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PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:53 pm 
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In 1804 there were 1 billion people

In 1927 there were 2 billion people

In 1959 there were 3 billion people

In 1974 there were 4 billion people

In 1987 there were 5 billion people

In 1999 there were 6 billion people

In 2012 there were 7 billion people

Today 1/3 of the world's ~7.25 billion population live in China and India alone ........

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:14 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
In 1804 there were 1 billion people
In 1927 there were 2 billion people

In 1959 there were 3 billion people

In 1974 there were 4 billion people

In 1987 there were 5 billion people

In 1999 there were 6 billion people

In 2012 there were 7 billion people

Today 1/3 of the world's ~7.25 billion population live in China and India alone ........



When something increases every year, even by a small amount, it eventually doubles in size...this is exponential growth. Anything that experiences this type of growth (even 1%or less/yr)will have shorter and shorter doubling periods as time goes on, this is mathematical fact. Many many people can not grasp this concept. Please explain this to politicians who in this day still hold the view all growth is always a good thing!

We can not support even one more doubling of world population with our current food production and distribution system without accepting severe human suffering or massive redistribution of resources from rich to poor. This is assuming farmers can maintain current production levels in a changing climate, with dwindling resources, a risky bet.
Either of these two possibilities is a recipe for massive conflict.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:11 pm 
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"You can always trust them(Americans) to do the right thing. You just have to wait until they have exhausted all their other options first"

This is an old video of Gwynne Dyer,author of Climate Wars, however I think it is appropriate seeing how so many of the senarios described here are coming to fruition now.The news almost always describes conflicts over water and food as "ethinc conflicts". We rarely get to the root of the issues.
The Q,A session is just as interesting as the talk.
"because they are relatively cheap almost any government can do this(geo engineering)"
"Albertans are placing much of their beef research into growing meat in tubes"
My appologies if this specific info. has already been covered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NYSsLJ87UY


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:42 pm 
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Climate Wars: What People Will Be Killed For in the 21st Century Hardcover – January 24, 2012
by Harald Welzer (Author)

"Struggles over drinking water, new outbreaks of mass violence, ethnic cleansing, civil wars in the earth’s poorest countries, endless flows of refugees: these are the new conflicts and forces shaping the world of the 21st century. They no longer hinge on ideological rivalries between great powers but rather on issues of class, religion and resources. The genocides of the last century have taught us how quickly social problems can spill over into radical and deadly solutions. Rich countries are already developing strategies to garner resources and keep ‘climate refugees’ at bay."
The other one is from 2010.
Yes, they called WWI one thing and WWII another, always dodging the overpopulation bullet as a major root cause. I usually just generalize on the horrors involved in overpopulation, but do include the factual cannibalism. People getting killed by some lazy shitheads who want your canned food, or even your body, until the gangs eye each other as food when the rest is gone. The agonies of thousands of ways to die, from malnutrition and resultant diseases, to the swelled black tongues of those whose faucets quit running. Over flowing toilets, and trash 4 feet deep in all the cities. Poached rats and warthogs, with house cats a delicacy. Everything edible and burnable gone for miles and miles, with the stench of a half billion deaths per year filling the clearing and hotter skies. In a thousand years, deep in a fortress, the last man faces having to go to the surface for some form of food. A surface devoid of life and over a hundred degrees average hotter, going quickly toward a thermal max of +200*C, until the sun melts it during nova in 4.5 billion years. A wonderful gift from God shit on by the majority of greedy, ignorant, and lustful humans.
Don't blame me, I'm one of the very small minority, but will die unable to have changed anything, except my own afterlife as we watch, tears in Heaven, and realize the unlived lives of billions of children of the future who will now never be. The beauty destroyed. Untold billions who will never have an afterlife of beauty, because of religions, cultures, ethnicities, greed and dire need, politics---blame everything except overpopulation.

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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:14 pm 
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Wars of the past and local fighting have happened a lot in the past over water;

Washington State Declares Drought Emergency

The Huffington Post | By Lydia O'Connor
Posted: 05/15/2015 6:26 pm EDT
WASHINGTON YAKIMA VALLEY
The Windy Point Vineyards in Wapato, Yakima River Valley. | Bernt Rostad | Flickr

"Drought isn't just a California problem, folks. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee declared a statewide drought emergency on Friday, with snowpack and stream flows dramatically below normal.

“We’re really starting to feel the pain from this snowpack drought," Inslee said at a press conference. "Impacts are already severe in several areas of the state. Difficult decisions are being made about what crops get priority water and how best to save fish. ... We have some tough, challenging months ahead of us. We’re ready to bring support and relief to the hardest hit areas of the state. We’re going to do everything we can to get through this."

The drought in Washington, famous for lush greenery and rainy weather, is less severe than what California has endured since 2011. Data released by the National Drought Mitigation Center on Thursday shows how conditions have worsened in Washington over the last year."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/1 ... 94654.html
There is even a website with articles on the CA drought;
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/california-drought/

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