EnviroLink Forum

Here we go again ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32704506

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'Where mercy, love and pity dwell, there God is dwelling too'

http://holy-lance.blogspot.com

Currently we have higher amounts of equatorial upper ocean heat content than last year and a favorable wind forecast for continued blossoming of the Nino. I would say this has a good chance at peaking at strong territory.

It makes it like Seattle here at 9K in central Colorado. So, just maybe, we won't have devastating forest fires this year. The future is not good, seeing we have 25 times the fire area of last century average per year. Extra vegetation up here means fire next year is a strong possibility. We hit 405ppm CO2 today. This is a day late;
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keeli ... k_zoom.png

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.

They are the same as the climate change will intensify the El Nino effect over time.

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With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein

Remembering the impact of the previous El Nino, all of this does give us an inkling of the potential long-term impact climate change could have on agriculture and wildlife.

_________________
'Where mercy, love and pity dwell, there God is dwelling too'

http://holy-lance.blogspot.com

I would say this is debatable.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... e-headache

From the link:

El nino has only weak effect on part of US just as the article said.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... -for-2015/

However, what is not debatable is that with a increasing base temperature the addition of the El Nino effect will magnify that increase over time. The addition of the El Nino to the "normal" increases will continue to be related to the record breaking temperature years. Thus, the cause will be both El Nino and the warming trend for those records.

I probably should have gone into a better explanation in the first post, but that is now corrected.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein

I agree, Wayne, that stronger El Ninos will happen. Just not after another century. By then the ocean currents warm enough to set off clathrate deposits will be different than present. Then the currents will keep changing as the atmosphere keeps getting hotter. Eventually to the ocean surface boiling, the currents will keep changing until only pockets of boiling water are left. At the rate of change with acceleration, that is just a few thousand years.
Geologically, and meteorologically, faster and greater change than ever before, after the accretion phase was over.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein

If the El Nino gets no stronger in intensity, if the cycle does not accelerate, and if the base temperature continues to increase, the net effect will be new record high temperatures. The El Nino and the base increase are still one and the same in the new record temperature just as they were in 1998. When we see record average temperatures with a weak effect, we know there will be significant records set when there is a strong effect.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein