EnviroLink Forum

The paper is here.

Snowy! Glad to hear from ya!

Thanks Iowanic! Hope everything is well. Doing Masters research on improving predictability with thunderstorm forecasts, but haven't closed the door on a Ph.D afterward.

Good luck with your studies. It seems like just yesterday when you were a high schooler trying to research on line.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein

Appreciate that Wayne. Google Scholar is a great resource to use to find papers to reference. Sometimes you read through twenty papers to write one sentence in an article, the entire process is very painstaking.

I always saw promise in your abilities, even when we did not quite agree. I don't know how much we would disagree now, but I expect there is much more promise than there was at that time.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein

Appreciate that. I would have to imagine not very much at this point with the main points related to anthropogenic climate change.

One of the points outlined in the National Academies of Sciences extreme weather report from 2016 is that there is low confidence in how tornado outbreaks will evolve with warming temperatures (but the overall environment for tornado outbreaks may become more conducive with future warming). I would imagine there is more disagreement with climate scientists in general with how much we can link those outbreaks to a longer term warming trend. That's probably a great place for further research to disentangle any long term warming trend impacts on that kind of extreme weather.

The last few weeks have given some data for the increasingly evolving tornado occurrences. The movement eastward from "Tornado Alley" seems to be getting much more support in the data. I know we have moved an entire USDA hardiness zone in less than 30 years and with that increase in temperature there seems to be an increased instability in the atmosphere when storms are included in the equation. The long term effects will be hare to winnow from the data sets for some time still.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer

"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein

Professor Victor Gensini had a pretty good Twitter thread on the recent severe weather outbreak in the context of a longer term warming trend.

The National Academies had an extreme weather report back in 2016, which outlines rough benchmarks on how confident scientists are with attribution of various extreme weather events to a longer term warming trend. Among the most confident were temperature and precipitation extremes. The least confident was how severe convective storms would evolve with warming. Figure S.4 from the report is below.



But as Dr. Marshall Shepherd noted,



Dr. Mann is more confident on a climate link, since a persistent overall weather pattern helped lead to the overall environmental conditions that produced the outbreak. His research shows that persistent weather patterns will be made more likely with future warming.

Professor Gensini has also published research on what you touched upon Wayne with the eastward shift of these kinds of severe storms.