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Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration
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Author:  Snowy123 [ Sun May 26, 2019 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

The paper is here.

Quote:
Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.


Image

Author:  Iowanic [ Mon May 27, 2019 4:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Snowy! Glad to hear from ya! :clap:

Author:  Snowy123 [ Wed May 29, 2019 7:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Iowanic wrote:
Snowy! Glad to hear from ya! :clap:


Thanks Iowanic! Hope everything is well. Doing Masters research on improving predictability with thunderstorm forecasts, but haven't closed the door on a Ph.D afterward.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Wed May 29, 2019 11:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Snowy123 wrote:
Iowanic wrote:
Snowy! Glad to hear from ya! :clap:


Thanks Iowanic! Hope everything is well. Doing Masters research on improving predictability with thunderstorm forecasts, but haven't closed the door on a Ph.D afterward.


Good luck with your studies. It seems like just yesterday when you were a high schooler trying to research on line.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Thu May 30, 2019 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
Iowanic wrote:
Snowy! Glad to hear from ya! :clap:


Thanks Iowanic! Hope everything is well. Doing Masters research on improving predictability with thunderstorm forecasts, but haven't closed the door on a Ph.D afterward.


Good luck with your studies. It seems like just yesterday when you were a high schooler trying to research on line.


Appreciate that Wayne. Google Scholar is a great resource to use to find papers to reference. Sometimes you read through twenty papers to write one sentence in an article, the entire process is very painstaking.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Thu May 30, 2019 7:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:

Thanks Iowanic! Hope everything is well. Doing Masters research on improving predictability with thunderstorm forecasts, but haven't closed the door on a Ph.D afterward.


Good luck with your studies. It seems like just yesterday when you were a high schooler trying to research on line.


Appreciate that Wayne. Google Scholar is a great resource to use to find papers to reference. Sometimes you read through twenty papers to write one sentence in an article, the entire process is very painstaking.


I always saw promise in your abilities, even when we did not quite agree. I don't know how much we would disagree now, but I expect there is much more promise than there was at that time.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Wayne Stollings wrote:

I always saw promise in your abilities, even when we did not quite agree. I don't know how much we would disagree now, but I expect there is much more promise than there was at that time.


Appreciate that. I would have to imagine not very much at this point with the main points related to anthropogenic climate change.

One of the points outlined in the National Academies of Sciences extreme weather report from 2016 is that there is low confidence in how tornado outbreaks will evolve with warming temperatures (but the overall environment for tornado outbreaks may become more conducive with future warming). I would imagine there is more disagreement with climate scientists in general with how much we can link those outbreaks to a longer term warming trend. That's probably a great place for further research to disentangle any long term warming trend impacts on that kind of extreme weather.

Author:  Wayne Stollings [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

I always saw promise in your abilities, even when we did not quite agree. I don't know how much we would disagree now, but I expect there is much more promise than there was at that time.


Appreciate that. I would have to imagine not very much at this point with the main points related to anthropogenic climate change.

One of the points outlined in the National Climate Assessment is that there is low confidence in how tornado outbreaks will evolve with warming temperatures (but the overall environment for tornado outbreaks may become more conducive with future warming). I would imagine there is more disagreement with climate scientists in general with how much we can link those outbreaks to a longer term warming trend. That's probably a great place for further research to disentangle any long term warming trend impacts on that kind of extreme weather.


The last few weeks have given some data for the increasingly evolving tornado occurrences. The movement eastward from "Tornado Alley" seems to be getting much more support in the data. I know we have moved an entire USDA hardiness zone in less than 30 years and with that increase in temperature there seems to be an increased instability in the atmosphere when storms are included in the equation. The long term effects will be hare to winnow from the data sets for some time still.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Wayne Stollings wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

I always saw promise in your abilities, even when we did not quite agree. I don't know how much we would disagree now, but I expect there is much more promise than there was at that time.


Appreciate that. I would have to imagine not very much at this point with the main points related to anthropogenic climate change.

One of the points outlined in the National Climate Assessment is that there is low confidence in how tornado outbreaks will evolve with warming temperatures (but the overall environment for tornado outbreaks may become more conducive with future warming). I would imagine there is more disagreement with climate scientists in general with how much we can link those outbreaks to a longer term warming trend. That's probably a great place for further research to disentangle any long term warming trend impacts on that kind of extreme weather.


The last few weeks have given some data for the increasingly evolving tornado occurrences. The movement eastward from "Tornado Alley" seems to be getting much more support in the data. I know we have moved an entire USDA hardiness zone in less than 30 years and with that increase in temperature there seems to be an increased instability in the atmosphere when storms are included in the equation. The long term effects will be hare to winnow from the data sets for some time still.


Professor Victor Gensini had a pretty good Twitter thread on the recent severe weather outbreak in the context of a longer term warming trend.

The National Academies had an extreme weather report back in 2016, which outlines rough benchmarks on how confident scientists are with attribution of various extreme weather events to a longer term warming trend. Among the most confident were temperature and precipitation extremes. The least confident was how severe convective storms would evolve with warming. Figure S.4 from the report is below.

Image

But as Dr. Marshall Shepherd noted,

Quote:
It is important to point out that just because an event is low on the scale that doesn't mean there is no climate change influence. It simply means scientific evidence is not strong enough at this time to draw stronger conclusions. Severe convective storms, including tornadoes, falls into this category.


Dr. Mann is more confident on a climate link, since a persistent overall weather pattern helped lead to the overall environmental conditions that produced the outbreak. His research shows that persistent weather patterns will be made more likely with future warming.

Author:  Snowy123 [ Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nerem et al. 2018 Detect Post 1993 SLR Acceleration

Professor Gensini has also published research on what you touched upon Wayne with the eastward shift of these kinds of severe storms.

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