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PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:14 pm 
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"Methane clathrate, also known commonly as methane hydrate, is a form of water ice that contains a large amount of methane within its crystal structure. Potentially large deposits of methane clathrate have been found under sediments on the ocean floors of the Earth"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
The huge Siberian methane blowholes of 2014 were Methane Clathrate Guns in its smaller effect. I used to make silver fulminate in my youth, and methane clathrate is VERY similar. Without ignition it is 100 times the heat trapping of CO2 for the first 20 years. Its stability is only with lower temperature and depth. It explosively releases with seaquakes, or as little as a 2*F temperature rise. The Siberian deposits are legendary, and 50GTs of it are ready to release, it very rapidly expands to 169 times its volume. That is just the beginning.......
Like nitroglycerin without fire. Arctic surface temperature goes +5*C or more and it starts below the surface. It is now +6*C over in the Arctic. The 50GTs of it are equivalent to 5000GTs of CO2, compared to the HGHG annual of ~33GT. Then the tundra total with all the ocean deposits is another 1000GTs, or 100K GTs of CO2, and the H2O vapor, and nitrous gases, among others. That puts the surface temperature beyond the boiling point of water. As a worst case scenario, but even an 80% turnover would would eliminate all but thermal vent life. :-({|= :-({|= :-({|= :-({|= :cry: 8-[ :-k :- :mrgreen:
http://guymcpherson.com/2015/03/for-tho ... of-humans/
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/02 ... -2031.html
http://planetextinction.com/planet_exti ... hrates.htm
http://planetextinction.com/documents/M ... rvival.pdf
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/2015/ ... -2015.html

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:43 pm 
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There is around 105,000 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. Humans have put out less than 5,000 billion tons, to change the temperature 2*F at minimum, accounting for momentum. Well, if it was linear that would be another 42*F, but it is not. Remember water vapor and a few other HGHGs. So 44*F becomes 200*C. Increase over interglacial average, of only 10*F in a few hundred years is still too much for most life. People have to realize just how dangerous these methane hydrates are over a longer term than 10 years. We have less time than that to stop fossil fuel use and slash and burn ignorant farming, and turn green, plant trillions of trees, and reduce population almost as much as the crash will.
Ecocide is what it was called. I think it is also mass murder of all species. The suicide by over-indulgence, and done by clathrate gun.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:30 pm 
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Methane as a ghg is a concern but some kind of runaway caused by a clathrate gun probably is not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change

Quote:
Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely. It is suggested that at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists worldwide.[26] Furthermore, there are believed to be another 400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions [27] with 10,000 to 11,000 gigatonnes worldwide.[27] This is large enough that if 10% of the stored methane were released, it would have an effect equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.[28] Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a higher global warming potential than CO2.

Worries about the release of this methane and carbon dioxide is linked to arctic shrinkage. Recent years have seen record low Arctic sea ice. It has been suggested that rapid melting of the sea ice may initiate a feedback loop that rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[29][30] Methane clathrates on the sea-floor have also been predicted to destabilise, but much more slowly.[27]

A release of methane from clathrates, however, is believed to be slow and chronic rather than catastrophic and that 21st-century effects of such a release are therefore likely to be 'significant but not catastrophic'.[28] It is further noted that 'much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere',[31] as it can be dissolved into the ocean and be broken down biologically.[31] Other research[32] demonstrates that a release to the atmosphere can occur during large releases.[clarification needed] These sources suggest that the clathrate gun effect alone will not be sufficient to cause 'catastrophic'[28] climate change within a human lifetime.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:38 pm 
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According to Wayne's sources in the 'runaway' thread, we have been in runaway since 2007. Methane releases are going up geometrically, if you read my links.
I don't like the term clathrate gun, for the whole process. The clathrates explode out in various deposits at various times, increasing with time, but not all at once. The 50+GT ready to release is when the methane turnover effect is passed the tipping point of self generation or the completion of the positive feedback loop. You will see it, and maybe I will, too.
We can no more stop it than we can stop the poles melting. Some see a 50% hope in stopping Thermageddon to GTE, and slowing, then decreasing, CAGW to AGW, back to 350ppm CO2. Although the oceans are releasing large amounts of methane, at the present +1*F it dissolves to saturation, and it goes to the atmosphere explosively at +2*F or 1 to 5 pounds of kinetic pressure.
I consider a single formation of methane hydrate, suddenly releasing from a seaquake to sink any vessels above, is what I call the gun effect. It is the fastest releasing 50GT that will also be like a gun, heating the Arctic above the 6*C it already is, and geo-historically this is beyond the methane turnover point from records of PETM and the End Permian (5*C from other links).
Methane turnover is the better term, and is happening faster than at any point in geo-history. (back to wunderground, and away from wiki)

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PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 11:27 am 
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Michael G. O'Brien; Earth will still exist even without life. As new data and events happen, the trajectory can change. We once had a long interglacial from the fact the orbital perturbation and axis tilt wobble do not exactly always coincide close enough. So it is with this; "The next big chill may be overdue. If humans hadn’t boosted levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Earth’s next frosty bout of glacial growth probably would have already started, new research suggests.

For the last 11,700 years, Earth has been on a break between periods of ice expansion called glaciations. A similar interglacial period occurred around 790,000 years ago. A new climate reconstruction based on sediments from an ancient Italian lake shows that this historical interglacial lasted only about 10,800 years. The result suggests that the current interglacial should be wrapping up — but it’s not" https://www.sciencenews.org/.../next-ic ... -be-hold...

Next icy era may be on hold

Carbon emissions from humans may have postponed Earth’s next glaciation, new research suggests.


sciencenews.org
..
However, this time the axis tilt wobble is near maximum and so is the ellipticity of orbit, which would normally lead to increasing snow and nice and albedo change which cools the planet further and keeps it in an ice age until axis tilt minimum and orbital circularity coincide roughly. Volcanic events can change albedo and have an atmospheric cooling effect and ash fall changes albedo for more melt . If the population crash is triggered by a combination of due geologic events like Cascadia, La Palma, and Katla, then the emissions would also lower dramatically. Perhaps to the point that when Yellowstone goes in 2K+ years, it could trigger the ice age at a later date. Only if emissions are decreased enough within a decade or so, otherwise even mighty Yellowstone could not stop the GTE Events. IMEO
On the chance that Cascadia, La Palma, or Katla do not happen within a decade or so, the human population will crash from overpopulation and CAGW effects by the early 2040s, which is too late. It is possible that a nuclear war could put up enough aerosols to cool the planet and kill off much of humanity with nuclear winter and radiation. This could change the trajectory. A one year volcanic or nuclear winter would crash the population, but not take care of momentum, so ten years later it could be hotter than ever. It all depends on when it happens. Not nice events at all, but certainly better than a total methane turnover, and the 'Venus Effect'.
See the Methane Clathrate Gun Time Bomb on Facebook.com

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PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2015 10:15 am 
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https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/2575

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Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego

In a research first, an international team of scientists used Carbon-14 (14C) to shed light on why many abrupt climate warming events through the past 100,000 years have been accompanied by increases in atmospheric methane concentration. Their findings suggest that huge meltdowns of frozen methane-which some scientists had proposed as the cause of the methane increases, as well as significant contributors to the warming itself-most likely did not occur during the warming events.

Methane is one of the most important greenhouse gases. Measurements of 14C concentrations in the gas can tell scientists how a sample of methane originated but the difficulty of applying the procedure to ancient air samples had long dissuaded researchers from attempting it. Over the course of five years, Vas Petrenko of Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and his colleagues collected glacial ice from the edge of the Greenland ice sheet that formed around the times of two abrupt climate change events that took place 11,600 years ago and 14,500 years ago. They extracted the ancient air trapped inside bubbles in the ice to analyze the methane they contained.

Every ton of glacial ice the team melted down yielded only about 20 micrograms of ancient methane, a sample size typically too small for 14C analysis. The tiny sample sizes they had to work with required that the team push the boundaries of 14C measurement procedures.



http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 112403.php

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The greenhouse gas, methane, has stopped growing in the global background atmosphere and could begin to decrease, CSIRO researchers announced today.
"Methane is the second most important gas after carbon dioxide. It is responsible for a fifth of the enhanced greenhouse effect over the past 200 years," says Dr Paul Fraser, a chief research scientist at CSIRO Atmospheric Research.

"Over the past four years there has been no growth in atmospheric methane concentrations compared to a 15% rise over the preceding 20 years and a 150% rise since pre-industrial times. This is a very exciting result," says Dr Fraser.

The results are from Cape Grim, Tasmania, Australia's important greenhouse gas monitoring facility operated by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.


http://news.psu.edu/story/205463/2006/0 ... ic-methane

Quote:
University Park, Pa. -- Icy chunks of frozen methane and water are not responsible for the periodic increases in atmospheric methane recorded in Greenland ice cores, according to a Penn State geoscientist.

The ice core samples from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project II cover the last 40,000 years and present a picture of the Earth's climate over that time span.


http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsre ... tlands.asp

Quote:
An expansion of wetlands and not a large-scale melting of frozen methane deposits is the likely cause of a spike in atmospheric methane gas that took place some 11,600 years ago, according to an international research team led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

Photo of Jeff Severinghaus
Scripps Institution of Oceanography geoscientist Jeff Severinghaus extracts blocks of ice from an ice sheet in Greenland. Severinghaus participated in an international analysis of methane trapped in the ice sheet to understand the origins of a sudden burst of atmospheric methane 11,600 years ago. Photo: Vas Petrenko, University of Colorado, Boulder

The finding is expected to come as a relief to scientists and climate watchers concerned that huge accelerations of global warming might have been touched off by methane melts in the past and could happen again now as the planet warms. By measuring the amount of carbon-14 isotopes in methane from air bubbles trapped in glacial ice, the researchers determined that the surge that took place nearly 12,000 years ago was more chemically consistent with an expansion of wetlands. Wetland regions, which produce large amounts of methane from bacterial breakdown of organic matter, are known to have spread during warming trends throughout history.

This is good news for global warming because it suggests that methane clathrates do not respond to warming by releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere,” said Vasilii Petrenko, a postdoctoral fellow at University of Colorado, Boulder, who led the analysis while a graduate student at Scripps.


This is good news for global warming because it suggests that methane clathrates do not respond to warming by releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere,”

http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1704

Quote:


(Santa Barbara, Calif.) –– Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is emitted in great quantities as bubbles from seeps on the ocean floor near Santa Barbara. About half of these bubbles dissolve into the ocean, but the fate of this dissolved methane remains uncertain. Researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara have discovered that only one percent of this dissolved methane escapes into the air –– good news for the Earth's atmosphere.
Coal Oil Point (COP), one of the world's largest and best studied seep regions, is located along the northern margin of the Santa Barbara Channel. Thousands of seep fields exist in the ocean bottom around the world, according to David Valentine, associate professor of Earth Science at UC Santa Barbara. Valentine along with other members of UCSB's seeps group studied the plume of methane bubbles that flows from the seeps at COP.

Their results will soon be published as the cover story in Volume 34 of Geophysical Research Letters. This research effort is the first time that the gas that dissolves and moves away from COP, the plume, has been studied.

The amount of methane release from COP seeps is around two million cubic feet per day, according to Valentine. About 100 barrels of oil oozes out of this area as well. Methane warms the Earth 23 times more than carbon dioxide when averaged over a century. Thus the fate of the methane bubbles from the seeps is an important environmental question.

"We found that the ocean has an amazing capacity to take up methane that is released into it –– even when it is released into shallow water," said Valentine. "Huge amounts of gas are coming up here, creating a giant gas plume. Until now, no one had measured the gas that dissolves and moves away, the plume."


Clathrates as the new sword of Damocles? Really the level of alarmist clap trap here takes clap trap to a new level.

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PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2015 12:22 pm 
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"Alaska’s Spring Is Becoming More Like California’s Summer

Climate change’s new normal is causing record-breaking heat and wildfire risk.

alaska temperature map
(Map: NOAA)
May 29, 2015 By Emily J. Gertz

Emily J. Gertz is TakePart's associate editor for environment and wildlife.

Following an abnormally warm winter, spring temperatures exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit across a broad swath of interior Alaska in May, breaking records for the earliest day with temperatures that high.

Eagle, a town east of Fairbanks with about 120 years’ worth of weather records, reported a daytime high of 91 degrees on May 23. This was the earliest day ever with a temperature of over 90 degrees and “smashed that location’s all-time record for May,” according to the National Weather Service.

“It was 30.1 degrees hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5 degrees), and 18.1 degrees warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year,” the agency reported, adding that as of May 29, daily temperatures in Eagle had set or tied 10 high-temperature records."
http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/05 ... pid=ait-fb

This goes right with it;
"From Siberia to British Columbia Arctic Wildfires Begin an Ominous Ignition :shock: #-o :cry: [-X :problem:

It’s abnormally warm today near Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territory. And the smell of smoke from massive fires to the west lingers in the air.

Temperatures there yesterday afternoon read 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Where I sat typing this blog in Gaithersburg, Maryland, it was a somewhat cooler 67. A north-south temperature flip-flop that has become all-too-common in recent years. A warming in the Arctic that sets the stage for gargantuan summer wildfires burning through some of the world’s greatest carbon stores. Vast and thawing permafrost deposits stretching in a great arc from Siberia through Alaska and on into Northern Canada. Immense loads of fuel for a newly forming ring of fire that is now an entirely human invention."
https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2 ... -ignition/

The question is only "which year will the Arctic tundra release its 52GTs of ready to erupt methane clathrate. Then it would only be a matter of a relatively short time geologically to release the other up to 5000GTs of methane in the permafrost and oceanic deposits. Not only is the melting permafrost and many hundreds of fires above the Arctic Circle a reaction to HGHGs, but soot from the fires is blocking solar heat but changing the albedo of the north to melt even more of the cap and ice sheets. So the first tipping point of open ocean warming in 2007 will be followed by the Arctic tundra initial release 2025-8, maybe even sooner. That will truly mark the beginning of the end of the "Anthropocene Epoch". Whether a war, or population crash from dollar or other currency failures, or geologic events of great disaster that are due, the crash will happen. After a certain point in the very near future, even a population crash of 95%, also reducing emissions 95%, will be too late to stop the trajectory to Global Terminal Extinction Events.
We should have started population reduction and quality control in the 1960s.

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Sun May 31, 2015 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 31, 2015 7:13 pm 
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"Sunday, May 31, 2015
Arctic Methane Skyrocketing

The map below shows observatories in the Arctic. ]]]MB"Clathrates as the new sword of Damocles? Really the level of alarmist clap trap here takes clap trap to a new level." Wouldn't that be wonderful if the measurements were back down to the safe 1250 range, instead of increasing with alarming surges. Clap trap, yeah, right{{{{

'Arctic methane skyrocketing' is the title of a video by Paul Beckwith discussing recent rises in methane levels in the Arctic.

Paul's description: "I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behavior will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years.""
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/05 ... eting.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2ckkxEnWpA

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:25 pm 
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Things that should have been done long ago, never were, like this;
http://www.cairco.org/news/how-1992-mor ... n-majority

Then necessary HGHG reductions probably just will not be enough or in time;
"Few economists are as versed in the global diplomatic effort to combat climate change as Nicholas Stern of Britain.

So it was particularly distressing to hear him say, at a debate in New York a few weeks ago, that the international effort to achieve a worldwide climate agreement in Paris next December is already falling short on its most critical goal. The various pledges by nations to cut their emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, he noted, will not be enough to prevent the Earth’s temperature from rising beyond the level scientists consider the tipping point to devastating environmental disruption."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/03/busin ... ience&_r=1

And we still have butt sucks in denial, LIKE "Milton banana"

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 19, 2015 9:38 am 
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This is astounding!
"A three-century lce loss in one day in the Arctic

Arctic Sea Ice Area Drops 320,000 Square Kilometers in Just One Day


Robertscribbler,

18 June, 2015

Sea ice researchers like to talk a lot about what they call ‘Century Drops.’ Days when Arctic sea ice area or extent values fall more than 100,000 square kilometers. In the past, daily Century Drops were relatively rare — with steepest rates of loss occurring during late June through early August and featuring, perhaps, a handful of days in which 24 hour losses exceeded 100,000 square kilometers. But the record melt years of 2007 and 2012 showed a proliferation of daily drops that exceeded the 100,000 square kilometers daily threshold.

Well, a couple of days ago a three Century Drop showed up in the Cyrosphere Today measure. And it may just be something we’ve never seen before. At the least, it’s an event that’s pretty amazingly rare — or it should be, without the heat added to the Arctic by human fossil fuel emissions.

On Tuesday evening, the Cryosphere Today site showed Arctic sea ice at about 8,966,000 square kilometers. The next day the measure stood at about 8,646,000 square kilometers. That’s an extraordinary loss of 320,000 square kilometers in just one day."
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/201 ... ay-in.html

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:24 pm 
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Fires are major in Alaska now, as they were before in Canada, and Siberia. Because of denialists and the constant debate that shouldn't be, not enough HGHG decrease, and too late. The clathrates blow out 52GTs of methane 2025-8 or even before. Then it will be exponential, which is something dummies do not get. Argumentative denialist bananas with astounding stupidity and lack of moral character. :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :razz: :evil: [-X :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:12 pm 
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http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/201 ... numum.html
The graph that shows actual Arctic sea ice volume, shows that it will reach the zero line 2021-2.
http://gtnp.arcticportal.org/
this was the source of some of the data. Both have a lot of graphs, and are current.

Well, 2021-2 the clathrate gun goes off in the Siberian continental shelf deposits. Actually it goes off with less than 250 feet of ice over the methane hydrate clathrate deposits. So 2020-21. That is only 5 or 6 years. Which correlates with other overpopulation problems that first collapse the economy, then the ecology, with increasing malevolent migrations, disease, malnutrition, and more warfare.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:28 am 
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Good news!! the boffins at Realclimate arent worried about this, although they are still worried about rising CO2 levels

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/how-much-methane-came-out-of-that-hole-in-siberia/


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In conclusion, despite recent explosions suggesting the contrary, I still feel that the future of Earth’s climate in this century and beyond will be determined mostly by the fossil fuel industry, and not by Arctic methane. We should keep our eyes on the ball.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:57 am 
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realclimate certainly isn't looking at paleoclimate evidence of the methane turnover reaction. They do not refer to PETM or the Permian Great Dying. The loss of the Arctic ice is in real data, and so is methane releasing. Methane hydrate requires pressure and freezing cold, which will disappear when the ice is gone off the Siberian Shelf. Those of us alive in six years will see what begins to happen with exponential warming. Even idiots will see, but it will be far too late to stop. Some of the Global Terminal Extinction Events will happen after mid century, but right now we have one indicator----the explosive expansion of jellyfish. Crossing the tipping point of open ocean warming in the Arctic was 2007, and the acceleration of loss and warming since, also show indications of a methane self release 'event'.
realclimate boffins have been in denial, along with the UN. It is natural for humans to deny awful things like the population crash and the extinction of most or all species from Earth because of human over-pollution from overpopulation.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:19 pm 
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The East Siberian Arctic Shelf: towards further assessment of permafrost-related methane fluxes and role of sea ice

Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Valentin Sergienko, Leopold Lobkovsky, Vladimir Yusupov, Anatoly Salyuk, Alexander Salomatin, Denis Chernykh, Denis Kosmach, Gleb Panteleev, Dmitry Nicolsky, Vladimir Samarkin, Samantha Joye, Alexander Charkin, Oleg Dudarev, Alexander Meluzov, Orjan Gustafsson
Published 7 September 2015.DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0451
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 40451.long
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist
http://paulbeckwith.net/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRW45eaw28g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNSatd1ZDTs

We are definitely nearing an abrupt phase of malevolent climate change, and probably even rapid decarbonization with its rapid population decline, will not be enough in time. That's IF there is any time left to stop the progression of Global Terminal Extinction Events.

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