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 Post subject: El Nino
PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2015 7:41 pm 
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Here we go again ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32704506

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 7:56 pm 
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Currently we have higher amounts of equatorial upper ocean heat content than last year and a favorable wind forecast for continued blossoming of the Nino. I would say this has a good chance at peaking at strong territory.

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 8:58 pm 
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It makes it like Seattle here at 9K in central Colorado. So, just maybe, we won't have devastating forest fires this year. The future is not good, seeing we have 25 times the fire area of last century average per year. Extra vegetation up here means fire next year is a strong possibility. We hit 405ppm CO2 today. This is a day late;
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keeli ... k_zoom.png

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 3:05 am 
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IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.


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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 5:05 am 
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herlbert wrote:
IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.


They are the same as the climate change will intensify the El Nino effect over time.

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 4:58 am 
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Remembering the impact of the previous El Nino, all of this does give us an inkling of the potential long-term impact climate change could have on agriculture and wildlife.

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 10:46 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
herlbert wrote:
IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.


They are the same as the climate change will intensify the El Nino effect over time.


I would say this is debatable.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... e-headache

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In short, if you are someone who wants more or stronger ENSO events in the future, I have great news for you–research supports that. If you are someone who wants fewer or weaker ENSO events in the future, don’t worry–research supports that too.


Quote:
It’s not surprising then that the IPCC report issued in 2013 takes a measured approach. The IPCC has LOW confidence in exactly what will happen to ENSO in the future even while they have HIGH confidence that ENSO itself will continue (IPCC, 2013).

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 11:53 pm 
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El nino has only weak effect on part of US just as the article said.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... -for-2015/


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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:53 am 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
herlbert wrote:
IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.


They are the same as the climate change will intensify the El Nino effect over time.


I would say this is debatable.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... e-headache

From the link:

Quote:
In short, if you are someone who wants more or stronger ENSO events in the future, I have great news for you–research supports that. If you are someone who wants fewer or weaker ENSO events in the future, don’t worry–research supports that too.


Quote:
It’s not surprising then that the IPCC report issued in 2013 takes a measured approach. The IPCC has LOW confidence in exactly what will happen to ENSO in the future even while they have HIGH confidence that ENSO itself will continue (IPCC, 2013).


However, what is not debatable is that with a increasing base temperature the addition of the El Nino effect will magnify that increase over time. The addition of the El Nino to the "normal" increases will continue to be related to the record breaking temperature years. Thus, the cause will be both El Nino and the warming trend for those records.

I probably should have gone into a better explanation in the first post, but that is now corrected.

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:47 pm 
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I agree, Wayne, that stronger El Ninos will happen. Just not after another century. By then the ocean currents warm enough to set off clathrate deposits will be different than present. Then the currents will keep changing as the atmosphere keeps getting hotter. Eventually to the ocean surface boiling, the currents will keep changing until only pockets of boiling water are left. At the rate of change with acceleration, that is just a few thousand years.
Geologically, and meteorologically, faster and greater change than ever before, after the accretion phase was over. :-k :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: El Nino
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:39 pm 
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If the El Nino gets no stronger in intensity, if the cycle does not accelerate, and if the base temperature continues to increase, the net effect will be new record high temperatures. The El Nino and the base increase are still one and the same in the new record temperature just as they were in 1998. When we see record average temperatures with a weak effect, we know there will be significant records set when there is a strong effect.

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