Wayne Stollings wrote:
IMHO, sometimes it is hard to tell that the weather we are experiencing now is cause by climate change or el nino.
They are the same as the climate change will intensify the El Nino effect over time.
I would say this is debatable.http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... e-headache
From the link:
In short, if you are someone who wants more or stronger ENSO events in the future, I have great news for you–research supports that. If you are someone who wants fewer or weaker ENSO events in the future, don’t worry–research supports that too.
It’s not surprising then that the IPCC report issued in 2013 takes a measured approach. The IPCC has LOW confidence in exactly what will happen to ENSO in the future even while they have HIGH confidence that ENSO itself will continue (IPCC, 2013).
However, what is not debatable is that with a increasing base temperature the addition of the El Nino effect will magnify that increase over time. The addition of the El Nino to the "normal" increases will continue to be related to the record breaking temperature years. Thus, the cause will be both El Nino and the warming trend for those records.
I probably should have gone into a better explanation in the first post, but that is now corrected.