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PostPosted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:57 pm 
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Hi, I just found this website and forum and it looks pretty good with a lot of information. However, I don't see anything mentioned about the main reason that we're having environmental problems: Too many damn people on the planet.

About two years ago I was wondering why gasoline was getting so expensive and did some digging on the web. I found several sites like http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net http://www.peakoil.com http://theoildrum.com and more. All very interesting, and I've become somewhat of an amateur expert on oil and other energy sources, both conventional and alternative. Suffice it to say, in my humble opinion we're cooked (pardon the global warming pun) and we're all going to be forced into a power-down fairly soon, and it's not going to be pretty. And no, there's no alternatives, singly or in combination, that will allow us to live at anything near the current standard of living. As a matter of fact, an 1850s standard of living might be an attainable goal by 2050, if you're lucky and start preparing now!.

Along the way, I was re-introduced to the main cause of peak oil, peak natural gas, peak fish, peak grain, global warming and all the other problems seemingly ready to come to a head in the near future: human overpopulation. I say re-introduced because I had read The Population Bomb by Paul Erlich way back when, and pretty much forgot about it, like most people. My first re-introduction was a version of Aritmetic, Population and Energy, a talk by Dr. Albert Bartlett in which he talks about the dangers of constant growth in a finite environment. Next I read Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond. One day someone pointed me to http://dieoff.com which is a pretty scary website, and then the real kicker, Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change by William R. Catton, Jr. Right now I'm reading Limits to Growth: A 30 Year Update after having re-read (25 years later) Limits to Growth.

All this information pretty much convinces me that we're headed for a population crash within the next couple of decades, and perhaps doing something today about this constantly growing population issue might be the first step toward making that crash somewhat less severe than it needs to be. Certainly continuing our constant growth will make it worse. Along the way, alleviating population pressure can also help animal and plant populations to rebound, or at least stop shrinking since one of the main causes of extinction today is habitat loss from human encroachment.

What say you all, is human population control/reduction a goal of this forum/website, or am I going to hear all about that oxymoron "sustainable development"?

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The Dismal Theorem "If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth." - Kenneth E. Boulding


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:22 am 
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Hi Joep and Welcome!

haven't had time to review any of the website-links you posted but
will do at a later time when it becomes available.

if you check out the Environmental Forum you'll see alot of postings
, mainly by Johhny Electriglide, where he has posted numerous
threads about global population/energy issues...USA legal-illegal immigration problems.
(disregard the porn threads those will be removed by one of the moderators or admin).

there's one particular thread from Johhny E. about Roy Becks Video
Gumball if you're interested in checking that out.

you'll see alot of stuff on there about global warming/energy and human population issues.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 am 
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So what are we going to do about it? Cull all the stupid ones out? That would reduce it by 90% right there.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:09 am 
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Archer wrote:
So what are we going to do about it? Cull all the stupid ones out? That would reduce it by 90% right there.


Who'd get to decide who was stupid and who wasn't? And are you related to Peter Singer or whatever that AR guy's name is?


Welcome to the Board Joep!

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:53 am 
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Origam wrote:
Archer wrote:
So what are we going to do about it? Cull all the stupid ones out? That would reduce it by 90% right there.


Who'd get to decide who was stupid and who wasn't? And are you related to Peter Singer or whatever that AR guy's name is?


Welcome to the Board Joep!


Noooo, I was just being smart.

But if we did do that, I could decide. Of course, it would be a full time job, so I would require a six figure salary, full benefits, and a very good 401k. Lots of vacation and no limit on sick leave too.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:56 pm 
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Thanks for the welcomes, folks.

I wasn't talking about culling (although nature seems to be doing that now) but education. If everybody realized the dire straits the world is in, we might have a chance of reducing or eliminating population growth, maybe even reversing it. Who would want to bring a kid into this world who knew about the increasing evidence of the acceleration of global climate change, or the imminent prospect of declining energy supplies? I certainly wouldn't.

I think the problem needs to be talked about locally, because as energy, especially transportation energy, becomes scarce, our lives will necessarily become more local. I have made some inroads in my local area, although the growth machine is resisting. People are at least more aware of how development hurts the current residents of my town, just to enrich developers from out of town. It's a start, anyway.

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The Dismal Theorem "If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth." - Kenneth E. Boulding


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:31 pm 
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Hi, Joep! I wrote an extensive term paper a year before Ehrlich in 1967, and accurate to this day--"Mammal Populations in Ecological Niches, Including Humans". Lindsey Grant has written a number of good books.
Few do the completion curve, which is the classic "half bell". If you do the math, we are too far into "overshoot" to do much except to let nature take its course. No one or group has the power to stop it, unless God wants to step in and violate his own Laws of Nature.
The CO2 emissions, counting in any reasonable time to reduce them 75%, is also past the point where a livable biosphere for humans will be here 50 years after the"crash" of 2048 to 58. Which means Prof. Leakey was right in that humans will go extinct. Due to methane releases, unforeseen.
We also have some real geological whoppers due, and astronomical ones, too. Cascadia, Yellowstone, magnetic weakening, and Milky Way supernova radiation.
The main thing at the top of the curve is that death rate rapidly exceeds birth rate from ecological collapse effects. Preceded by years of horror, and the stench during the plunge of 800 million deaths per year for a decade. From malnutrition, lowered immunity, diseases, wars, starvation, lack of water, environmental poisons, or cannibalism.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:36 pm 
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hey Johhny..thought you and Joep would have alot in common.

8)

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if I could wake up tomorrow morning and push a button and all the AR's would be gone, I would lay awake tonight in anticipation of pushing the button.~~OHIOSTEVE


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:06 am 
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I think you're right Denni. :)

Johhny, it seems you're a little older than me (I was in 7th grade in 1967), and definitely wiser. Your post sent me on a web surfing session last night in which I discovered Mr. Grant, npg.org and a few other sites involved in population and resource/environment issues. I agree we're too far into overshoot to do much about it as a species, but I think individuals and small communities can certainly do something to increase their chances for survival in the short and long terms.

I do disagree with you on the timing. I think the die-off will start happening much sooner than 2048, perhaps even as early as the next decade. Oil production is going to peak soon, and that's going to throw a real monkey wrench into industrial agriculture, severely reducing food production and drastically increasing food prices. Not only that, people will start freezing or "heating" to death as energy for heating and cooling becomes more expensive.

And the most amazing this is, most people don't even have the slightest clue that the excrement is about to collide with the ventilating device. Sometimes I wish I had taken the blue pill too. :-#

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The Dismal Theorem "If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth." - Kenneth E. Boulding


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:33 am 
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Joep wrote:
And the most amazing this is, most people don't even have the slightest clue that the excrement is about to collide with the ventilating device.


Actually, fans just circulate the air, they don't ventilate. Sorry, I had to. :D

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:32 pm 
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Joep wrote:
I think you're right Denni. :)

Johnny, it seems you're a little older than me (I was in 7th grade in 1967), and definitely wiser. Your post sent me on a web surfing session last night in which I discovered Mr. Grant, npg.org and a few other sites involved in population and resource/environment issues. I agree we're too far into overshoot to do much about it as a species, but I think individuals and small communities can certainly do something to increase their chances for survival in the short and long terms.

I do disagree with you on the timing. I think the die-off will start happening much sooner than 2048, perhaps even as early as the next decade. Oil production is going to peak soon, and that's going to throw a real monkey wrench into industrial agriculture, severely reducing food production and drastically increasing food prices. Not only that, people will start freezing or "heating" to death as energy for heating and cooling becomes more expensive.

And the most amazing this is, most people don't even have the slightest clue that the excrement is about to collide with the ventilating device. Sometimes I wish I had taken the blue pill too. :-#
There is a definite possibility the peak could be sooner, my figures are conservative with probably an underlying hope and optimism--but to others it is total doomsday, unbelievable stuff. They are like Jews who really thought they were going to take a shower in 1942.
When you talk of the beginning of the population crash scenario---we've been in it for 20 years or more. Your curve is wrong in that we are at the beginning of an upside down reverse parabola as population growth slows from reducing birthrate and higher death rate. As poverty gets much worse and resources, water, and food scarcity hit, the death rate will increase drastically and regionally. I almost wish for an all out nuclear war---it would be more merciful. Remember that it is a half bell curve which will peak, no matter what, around mid-century or before.
The peak oil scenario is off because Venezuela and a couple places won't hit peak for 80 years, others peaked years ago. Looking at world averages throws you off the reality of cascading failure. I had thought of fully independent, remote, well-defended Earthship villages with a small manufacturing capacity and multi-talented strong people, could survive. Or underground huge fallout shelter type places with 100 years supply of food and water, these could survive nuclear winter. However, when the dust settles the warming will continue. Whether it will continue to +18*F in 100 years, depends on how soon(and if) this nuclear war starts and how many actually die(at least half have to go right now, increasing with time). Knowing the way of people, it will be too little, too late, as usual. Many believe God will intervene on our behalf. Maybe He will make the over-breeders of the world disappear, and keep alive only those who can live sustainably with knowledge of His Laws of Ecology. :D

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:53 pm 
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I wouldn't count on any supernatural beings intervening. They seem to get a big kick out of humanity screwing up.

And you're right, the population growth is slowing like a ball thrown up into the air right before it hits the top of its arc. Oil production growth is slowing like that too, it may have even stopped. Real oil production (not including ethanol and natural gas liquids) is on pace to be less in 2006 than 2005.

I don't hope for a nuclear "solution", it's too indiscriminate and doesn't give people who are aware of the problem a chance to survive, be it in "Earthship villages" or fallout shelters.

I try to tell people about the coming crisis on a local message board and I get mostly ignored. People don't want to hear that the lifestyle they're used to is coming to an end. The hardest part is finding like-minded people in my local area. After all, the American way of life is non-negotiable, isn't it? :roll:

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The Dismal Theorem "If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth." - Kenneth E. Boulding


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:50 am 
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Basic biology of a closed system, like some yeast in a jar of sugar water, will do the population increase until poisons of their byproducts or lack of food slows their reproduction rate. In a closed system they always rapidly drop to extinction because the finite resources end. If you have an input on a balanced system of plants and animals, the system can become sustainable but it is tricky as too much plants or too much animals and the system goes out of whack usually causing extinctions. Sustainability requires careful balancing of all lifeforms which is very tricky. The only way for one of the lifeforms to no longer be part of the equation and be allowed to increase without check is if that organism has no impact on the surrounding environment. This means turning the input (solar) into all the food and oxygen needed for all the processes and taking care of all toxins that might be created in the process. I think it is technologically feasible for individual humans to do just that and using low tech materials. My goal in life is to develop technologies and make educational materials to help people achieve complete self-sufficiency and prepare for everything that might happen (beyond the sun not shining... that is a possibility with dark clouds... winds should increase to provide energy in such a dire scenario, even that has to be considered). Those that follow this advice will be the teachers of the next generation when the population crashes and the "end of the world as we know it", forces everyone to change their lifestyle.

If you are looking for examples of supernatural involvement, Noah brought human kind through a good population crash. Joseph helped much of the middle east survive 5 years of famine (and turned Egypt into the first communistic state as everyone sold their land to Pharaoh to buy food). The interventions always involve prophecies of doom and death to those who do not prepare.


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