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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:35 pm 
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Ruh roh! Sometimes the statistics don't give the full picture. About that auto production. Yes, production has steadily been climbing. Thing is.....so is dealer inventory!

Image

Get ready for Cash for Clunkers II

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:09 pm 
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SiberD wrote:
Get ready for Cash for Clunkers II


That program was downright comical. So I swap an older, inefficient vehicle for a newer one that gets better mileage. Okay, so what about the monthly payments I've now incurred that far exceed any savings on gas I would have observed? Plus, everyone who participated just cycled through another round of virgin raw material to make all those new cars they didn't actually need. Why not just swap for a used vehicle that got better mileage? You know, the reuse part of the 3 R's? For that matter, why not the option of reduction by eliminating a vehicle altogether and just cutting me a check for my clunker?

Sounds like a ploy to me. I'm not buyin', but I did sell my '93 "clunker". It's still running strong, as it should be. What a waste it would have been to trash it. How many perfectly good, reliable vehicles were lost? Stupidity.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:30 pm 
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Not only was that a foolish program, like all governmental programs, it was supported by your tax dollars.

We bought a used 2006 VW Jetta TDI last year and couldn't be happier with it. We've recorded a high of 50mpg with it and a low of 44 mpg.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 6:53 pm 
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All I can say is that as a business owner I've seen an absolute uptick in deals being done that started back in August of last year. This is after at least two years of absolute paralysis to sign new contracts for software. We're now trying to hire to double our size in order to meet the needs of our already signed customers.

Obviously this is just one observation from the trenches, but all of my intuition tells me that things are starting to improve. I certainly hope that it improves for everyone else, too.

-josh


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:27 pm 
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SiberD wrote:
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You can believe anything you wish. There are those who believe we never landed on the moon and those who believe we did.


Wayne, hate to destroy your conspiracy theory but we DID land on the moon.


That still does not preclude people from the belief we did not land even with the supporting evidence from NASA. Their belief, in turn, states those who oppose that belief is only an opposing belief and not proof.

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HighER than it could be, but not that high given the history and the impact of fuel costs.


Oh Wayne, never use statistics straight from the kool aid pitcher! Real inflation, as computed via the formulas before Clinton changed them all around, is over 10% annualized and the trend is still on an upwards basis. And, the higher fuel costs and grain costs(animal feed) hasn't fully manifested it's full effect.....yet.


Exactly how did Clinton "change them all around" to make them incorect? I do not find a pay perscription economist newsletter proof in and of itself. The whole thing sounds very much like the anti-landing folks claiming NASA faked it when you look at it objectively.
Quote:
Image


Any supporting evidecne this it THE correct inflation rate ... other than folks paying him to tell them it is?

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Which would be called "priming the pump" type actions by those who understand the need for pumps to be primed.


Golly gee, I sure wish that I was one of those! So, are we getting our money's worth out of all this pump priming? Anything that is really sustainable without continued support of tax money?


The ecnomic free fall did stop. That would have been a nasty ride on down and the money would have been useless after a while.

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Which will be the case until we have recoverED by definition. The Great Depression impacts were not completely overcome until the advent of spending for WWII.


Huh? Are you advocating another world war then?


No, just pointing out the recovery takes time and requires a significant boost to do so when the depression is that deep.

Quote:
Would that rekindle another manufacturing demand? Too bad we've shipped out our manufacturing base to China and others, eh?

That is about the only way to get the cheaper products the consumers want and the higher profits the companies want.


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It seems the governmental areas where balanced budgets are required were where the losses in employment offset the general upturn.


The general upturn? From your link:

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 13.7 million, changed little in
April. The unemployment rate edged up from 8.8 to 9.0 percent over the
month but was 0.8 percentage point lower than in November. The labor
force also was little changed in April. (See table A-1.)


Yes, the general upturn in the private sector was partially offset by the losses in the state and local governmental sector. That is how you can add a quarter of a millin jobs and not have a positive impact in the employment rate.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and the private sector added 268,000 jobs.

Quote:
You have to remember also that it takes over 120,000 jobs a month just to stay even with the population growth. Thank goodness McDonalds is helping out in that area via a hiring spree :lol:


The figures showed twice that amount in new jobs so that would be an upturn in the general overview.

Quote:
Image


Sorry, but I find blogs to be poor sources of supporting data, even more so when the posters are anonymous.

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Don't confuse a small uptick in employment anything but noise when you're bouncing around the bottom.


Employment is not the whole story as far as the trend goes.

Quote:
Image


Another blog source?

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Buying incentives which worked are not indicative of a recovery in that market?


Well, lets look at housing....

New York, May 31, 2011 – Data through March 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index hit a new recession low with the first quarter’s data and posted an annual decline of 5.1% versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back


And from that same article:

The US economy had been showing a better than forecast recovery but the Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 60.8 in May from a revised 66.0 in April, well below economists' forecasts for 66.5. A third survey also suggested that growth could be slowing.

Ken Goldstein, Conference Board economist, said the figures were evidence that consumers were worried about jobs, food prices and housing. "These are not good numbers, we are back to where we were two month ago. But I think we are bobbing along the waves, not sinking further."



Quote:
I'd guess not. I wonder how the people feel that bought houses with those incentives now realizing their house has gone down in worth more than the incentives??


It seems you are guessing based on partial data, which approaches cherry-picking if the article is any clear indication.

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And automobiles? Yes, there actually is a very slow recovery going on there but until the housing crisis and unemployment improves, and coupled with tighter lending standards it will be a very long time before reaching the all time high of 16 million sold in 2007.


Which would e the difference in recovery and recovered would it not?

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I don't think you can consider this a recovery until such time as this number starts to see a decline instead of steadily rising....

Image


A thought based on a blog source? After claiming the governmental sources are wrong, I find it odd that you accept such sources as references.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:30 pm 
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SiberD wrote:
Ruh roh! Sometimes the statistics don't give the full picture. About that auto production. Yes, production has steadily been climbing. Thing is.....so is dealer inventory!

Image

Get ready for Cash for Clunkers II


Especially when the statistic for one company is confused with the industry statistics. That is the problem with using unconventional sources for your data.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:34 pm 
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josh knauer wrote:
All I can say is that as a business owner I've seen an absolute uptick in deals being done that started back in August of last year. This is after at least two years of absolute paralysis to sign new contracts for software. We're now trying to hire to double our size in order to meet the needs of our already signed customers.

Obviously this is just one observation from the trenches, but all of my intuition tells me that things are starting to improve. I certainly hope that it improves for everyone else, too.

-josh



I have seen the same situation and with my client base, they also see the pulse of many other industries. Those other industries also seem to be on the uptick.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:48 am 
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Exactly how did Clinton "change them all around" to make them incorect? I do not find a pay perscription economist newsletter proof in and of itself. The whole thing sounds very much like the anti-landing folks claiming NASA faked it when you look at it objectively.


Under Clinton three adjustments were made, "all downward and all dubious," according to Phillips.Product substitution allowed one product to be substituted for another if consumers would buy the other product if the original product rose in price. (For example, hamburger could be substituted for steak if steak became too costly.)

Geometric weighting permitted a lower weighting to goods and services that were seeing a rapid price rise because with the rise in price there is a presumed reduction in consumption.


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JZS/is_13_24/ai_n27888066/pg_2/?tag=content;col1

It has been estimated that up to 30% of the United States Federal Budget is based upon changes in the Consumer Price Index. During the 1990's, when Bill Clinton served as President, the CPI was changed to reflect "buying habits" rather than serving as a true inflation index.

It has been estimated that up to 30% of the United States Federal Budget is based upon changes in the Consumer Price Index. During the 1990's, when Bill Clinton served as President, the CPI was changed to reflect "buying habits" rather than serving as a true inflation index.


http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/inflationrate/a/What-Is-An-Inflation-Index.htm

The Clinton administration and some congressional leaders have been trying to find some way to reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustments in federal benefits programs as part of their drive to balance the federal budget.

The experimental index, which is based on a formula called a geometric mean, would be a small step in that direction.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/cpi/cpi.htm

The Committee recommended changes in the method of calculating the CPI that would increase taxes and reduce entitlements. This would make it easier for President Clinton to balance the budget.

The Boskin report reflected the political environment in which public servants in the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed the lead of their political bosses.


http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/investment-essays/fiddling_cpi.html

Quote:
Any supporting evidecne this it THE correct inflation rate ... other than folks paying him to tell them it is?


No, only that he uses the old formula for calculating the CPI and one can see the clear divergence after Clinton changed it but since you don't believe the CPI calculation was changed during the Clinton era even when there is clear evidence he did...well, just keep taking that blue pill Wayne.

Quote:
The ecnomic free fall did stop. That would have been a nasty ride on down and the money would have been useless after a while.


At what cost?

Image

The National debt is already to the point where we have only two choices, default or devaluation. With the way Ben is printing dollars we know which way we're headed...

Image

What were you saying about money being worthless after awhile if nothing were done?

Quote:
Sorry, but I find blogs to be poor sources of supporting data, even more so when the posters are anonymous.


Uh, Wayne, if you were to look really close at all of those graphs I posted you would see the sources came from official gov't agencies. The BLS, CBO, and SNAP. That one from SNAP on food stamps is really inconvenient for you , eh? Attack me to discredit it? Shame on you.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 7:32 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
josh knauer wrote:
All I can say is that as a business owner I've seen an absolute uptick in deals being done that started back in August of last year. This is after at least two years of absolute paralysis to sign new contracts for software. We're now trying to hire to double our size in order to meet the needs of our already signed customers.

Obviously this is just one observation from the trenches, but all of my intuition tells me that things are starting to improve. I certainly hope that it improves for everyone else, too.

-josh



I have seen the same situation and with my client base, they also see the pulse of many other industries. Those other industries also seem to be on the uptick.


And now for my anecdotal evidence. I live and work in a upper/upper middle class community of about 18,000 people. In the early and mid 2000's we were seeing, on average, 250 homes a year being built and sold. For the last three years that average has fallen to 50 homes per year and those are homes being built in existing developments and one here and there on vacant lots. What is disconcerting is that there is not one development in the planning stages. It takes a good two years from conception, to planning, design, and the building of infrastructure before homes can even start so, this ain't good.

Yeah, the housing bubble burst. There is a glut of existing homes via foreclosures and that isn't looking to turn around soon. Housing was one of the major drivers of our economy in this century and what I would like to know is, what industry is going to take the place of that?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 7:56 am 
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HVAC took a hard kick in the ass when the housing market collapsed. We surely haven't recovered and one would be hard pressed to say that we are in the process of doing so. Sure, there's been an uptick in production and we actually made money last quarter for the first time in several years. It's a good sign, but I wouldn't necessarily call it an indication of recovery. It's more like a spike to the positive after having flopped around in the red for a long time. Keep the trend going, if we can even call it that at this point, let's see it another 2 or 3 quarters, then we can reasonably talk about recovery from where I'm standing.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:27 am 
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SiberD wrote:
Quote:
Exactly how did Clinton "change them all around" to make them incorect? I do not find a pay perscription economist newsletter proof in and of itself. The whole thing sounds very much like the anti-landing folks claiming NASA faked it when you look at it objectively.


Under Clinton three adjustments were made, "all downward and all dubious," according to Phillips.Product substitution allowed one product to be substituted for another if consumers would buy the other product if the original product rose in price. (For example, hamburger could be substituted for steak if steak became too costly.)

Geometric weighting permitted a lower weighting to goods and services that were seeing a rapid price rise because with the rise in price there is a presumed reduction in consumption.


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JZS/is_13_24/ai_n27888066/pg_2/?tag=content;col1


I find it telling the same article claimed an adjustment of similar level by President G.W. Bush with no reference to that impact. That is why supporting evidence for claims are better in such cases.

Under George W. Bush, the CPI has been tweaked further.

<snip>

Economic analyst John Williams points out, "If you were to peel back changes that were made in the CPI going back to the Carter years,


Quote:
It has been estimated that up to 30% of the United States Federal Budget is based upon changes in the Consumer Price Index. During the 1990's, when Bill Clinton served as President, the CPI was changed to reflect "buying habits" rather than serving as a true inflation index.

It has been estimated that up to 30% of the United States Federal Budget is based upon changes in the Consumer Price Index. During the 1990's, when Bill Clinton served as President, the CPI was changed to reflect "buying habits" rather than serving as a true inflation index.


http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/inflationrate/a/What-Is-An-Inflation-Index.htm


Considering the base "basket" for this is reviewed and changed each decade, it would seem to be more of a relative buying habit comparison in that regard. More people are buying chicken than beef for health reasons in later years.

In any case it was the result of the review of economists who made the recommendations.

Some economists believe this drastically understates the real rate of inflation. Others think it is more accurate because it reflects what real families do when confronted with higher prices of a specific commodity.

Quote:
The Clinton administration and some congressional leaders have been trying to find some way to reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustments in federal benefits programs as part of their drive to balance the federal budget.

The experimental index, which is based on a formula called a geometric mean, would be a small step in that direction.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/cpi/cpi.htm


The reason for the change is given in the article but not referenced:

Many economists say the official CPI overstates yearly increases in the true cost of living by 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percentage points. A small portion of that overstatement stems from failing to take substitutions into account.

Quote:
The Committee recommended changes in the method of calculating the CPI that would increase taxes and reduce entitlements. This would make it easier for President Clinton to balance the budget.

The Boskin report reflected the political environment in which public servants in the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed the lead of their political bosses.


http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/investment-essays/fiddling_cpi.html


More conspiracy theory quoting that actual article based on another bloggish source.

Quote:
Quote:
Any supporting evidecne this it THE correct inflation rate ... other than folks paying him to tell them it is?


No, only that he uses the old formula for calculating the CPI and one can see the clear divergence after Clinton changed it but since you don't believe the CPI calculation was changed during the Clinton era even when there is clear evidence he did...well, just keep taking that blue pill Wayne.


Odd you leap to such a conclusion when your claims are unsupported by any evidence and that evidence is requested. The fact you picked over certain aspects of the mainstream reports and used individual opinions in blogs as factual is telling. I believe you may have more experience with taking that blue pill than I since you have followed a similar path as the moon landing conspiracy groups.

Quote:
Quote:
The ecnomic free fall did stop. That would have been a nasty ride on down and the money would have been useless after a while.


At what cost?

Image


It seems you are unfamiliar with the concept of cost-benefit analysis. To claim the cost of the action was too high, the cost of the alternative action would have to be accurately compared.

Quote:
The National debt is already to the point where we have only two choices, default or devaluation. With the way Ben is printing dollars we know which way we're headed...


So you also do not understand the fallacy of false dilemma?

Quote:
What were you saying about money being worthless after awhile if nothing were done?


Yes, and you are claiming it will be worthless?

Quote:
Quote:
Sorry, but I find blogs to be poor sources of supporting data, even more so when the posters are anonymous.


Uh, Wayne, if you were to look really close at all of those graphs I posted you would see the sources came from official gov't agencies.


The sources claim the data comes from the agencies, but anonymous claims are not the most trustworthy when data is manipulated into a graph.

Quote:
The BLS, CBO, and SNAP. That one from SNAP on food stamps is really inconvenient for you , eh?


Not especially. I have seen too many people take data from studies and present it in ways the study data nor their authors supported. I take such unsupported claims with a couple of grains of salt as a result.

Quote:
Attack me to discredit it? Shame on you.


I did not attack you, I questioned your choice of references and I question the unsupported sources of data and especially so when the sources seem to have agendas.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:40 am 
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SiberD wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
josh knauer wrote:
All I can say is that as a business owner I've seen an absolute uptick in deals being done that started back in August of last year. This is after at least two years of absolute paralysis to sign new contracts for software. We're now trying to hire to double our size in order to meet the needs of our already signed customers.

Obviously this is just one observation from the trenches, but all of my intuition tells me that things are starting to improve. I certainly hope that it improves for everyone else, too.

-josh



I have seen the same situation and with my client base, they also see the pulse of many other industries. Those other industries also seem to be on the uptick.


And now for my anecdotal evidence. I live and work in a upper/upper middle class community of about 18,000 people. In the early and mid 2000's we were seeing, on average, 250 homes a year being built and sold. For the last three years that average has fallen to 50 homes per year and those are homes being built in existing developments and one here and there on vacant lots. What is disconcerting is that there is not one development in the planning stages. It takes a good two years from conception, to planning, design, and the building of infrastructure before homes can even start so, this ain't good.

Yeah, the housing bubble burst. There is a glut of existing homes via foreclosures and that isn't looking to turn around soon. Housing was one of the major drivers of our economy in this century and what I would like to know is, what industry is going to take the place of that?


My younger son got married last year and has been house hunting. Of the five offers he made on homes, he was outbid on four of them in sequence. Home sales are still down and the inventory period is still extending, but the average sale price is rising.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 10:37 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:


My younger son got married last year and has been house hunting. Of the five offers he made on homes, he was outbid on four of them in sequence. Home sales are still down and the inventory period is still extending, but the average sale price is rising.


Ah, and yet some more anecdotal evidence. Well, maybe in your area the sales prices are rising but nationally the Case Shiller report shows home prices are still falling as recent as this past quarter.

New York, May 31, 2011 – Data through March 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S.
National Home Price Index declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6% in the
fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index hit a new recession low with the first quarter’s data and
posted an annual decline of 5.1% versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to
their mid-2002 levels.


http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us

Are you going to discount that evidence as some sort of conspiracy blog? As to your response above this post I do not have time today to respond except to say there is more than enough evidence, including main stream media reports, to show Clinton did indeed change how the formula for the CPI is calculated. Over 3 million sites are referenced on Google for "Clinton CPI".

I'll get back to it later.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 12:09 pm 
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Not especially. I have seen too many people take data from studies and present it in ways the study data nor their authors supported. I take such unsupported claims with a couple of grains of salt as a result.


There's nothing complicated about any of those graphs. Let's take the food stamp one. Do you actually believe that graph has been manipulated, or its even possible to manipulate without easily discrediting it? You don't believe food stamp issuance is at an all time high?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 1:41 pm 
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Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Thanks for the charts Siber D. I agree with most of the Tea Party ideals, and hate to see RINOs hide on the bandwagon. They are for border security and control, but fail to realize that >>>if all the illegals(30 million) were deported after paying fines owed and/or doing hard labor equivalent building the border barrier, and if the millions in the minority(10 million, incl. orgs.) who are encouraging(aiding, abetting, hiring, etc.) them paid the fines they owe by law (and/or do the time), it would be over 10 times the National Debt!!<<<< >>Just enforcing laws, and the Constitution, Art.4 Sec. 4, because we HAVE been invaded, is absolutely necessary.<< >>>The jobs recovery will not happen until ALL the illegals are deported, and immigration is stopped.<<
Conservatism has to get rid of the ridiculous compassion and tolerance of anti-Americanism in America. Gov't pay is up to double civilian, and has to come down. >>The budget MUST be balanced and the National Debt paid off.<< >>Those guilty of treason in Washington(600) and elsewhere must pay(city,and state officials in sanctuary areas), because they allowed the invasion and did not obey their solemn Oaths of Office to uphold the Constitution. :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: =D>

The solution to paying off the debt and getting Americans back to work is so simple. Placing a bounty on the ones owing the fines would help, like 10% for the bounty. The law also calls for confiscation of their property and selling it off. Remember Title8USC1324 iv, and Title8USC1325, and the laws on use of phoney IDs. Enforce the laws with an Eisenhower Sweep and bounty men. 8) :x

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