EnviroLink Forum

Community • Ecology • Connection
It is currently Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:36 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 78 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:59 pm 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:


My younger son got married last year and has been house hunting. Of the five offers he made on homes, he was outbid on four of them in sequence. Home sales are still down and the inventory period is still extending, but the average sale price is rising.


Ah, and yet some more anecdotal evidence.


Some was but not all of it. The rising prices came from a couple of discussions with real estate professionals and a report on the area.

Quote:
Well, maybe in your area the sales prices are rising but nationally the Case Shiller report shows home prices are still falling as recent as this past quarter.


Yes, one of the prime drivers of real estate is location.


Quote:
New York, May 31, 2011 – Data through March 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S.
National Home Price Index declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6% in the
fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index hit a new recession low with the first quarter’s data and
posted an annual decline of 5.1% versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to
their mid-2002 levels.


http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us

Are you going to discount that evidence as some sort of conspiracy blog?


No, it is not a blog. It is not a pay subscription opinion site nor is it populated with unknown sources.

Quote:
As to your response above this post I do not have time today to respond except to say there is more than enough evidence, including main stream media reports, to show Clinton did indeed change how the formula for the CPI is calculated.


I can agree with that, as did Bush and several other presidents, but more of the whole story was really required to avoid the implications of that being the only change and of the changes not being justified by economists.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:04 pm 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Quote:
Not especially. I have seen too many people take data from studies and present it in ways the study data nor their authors supported. I take such unsupported claims with a couple of grains of salt as a result.


There's nothing complicated about any of those graphs. Let's take the food stamp one. Do you actually believe that graph has been manipulated, or its even possible to manipulate without easily discrediting it?


I do not know if it has been manipulated or not, but I do know it is very easy to manipulate it. To be able to discredit the manipulation one must first have the initial data source and the data used, otherwise one may just be discussing a strawman.

Quote:
You don't believe food stamp issuance is at an all time high?


It very well could be at an all time high given the severe economic situation. Of course, that does not show there is no recovery underway either. There is a lag time between application, acceptance, and removal from the program.

The question is where did you arrive at the conclusion I was saying something other than what is quoted here:

"A thought based on a blog source? After claiming the governmental sources are wrong, I find it odd that you accept such sources as references."

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 6:13 pm 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
I had lunch with the commercial real estate advisor today and while the commercial property values are still rather flat here, there are several commercial projects being started nearby. He also informed me that it was reported in the real estate trade report that we had 18 houses sold in this area this past month for prices in excess of 1 million dollars. I know this is anecdotal and does not reflect the national trends, but those can be manipluated by the government, right?

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 7:17 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:16 pm
Posts: 2453
Location: The only hole built above ground
Wayne Stollings wrote:
c



The question is where did you arrive at the conclusion I was saying something other than what is quoted here:

"A thought based on a blog source? After claiming the governmental sources are wrong, I find it odd that you accept such sources as references."



Ah, that one had me a bit confused to the point of going back to read what I posted previously. You must be referencing the following remark I made : "never use statistics straight from the kool aid pitcher!"

Mia culpa. One should never say never :-) It is perfectly acceptable to use the govt's own statistics either for or against whatever point one is trying to make. :lol:

_________________
I can have oodles of charm....... when I want to.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 7:34 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:16 pm
Posts: 2453
Location: The only hole built above ground
Quote:
I do not know if it has been manipulated or not, but I do know it is very easy to manipulate it. To be able to discredit the manipulation one must first have the initial data source and the data used, otherwise one may just be discussing a strawman.


Uh Wayne, most of those graphs cited what the data source was and the SNAP data was straight from the USDA's own site!

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

And the CBO's graph on Monthly Payroll Growths to Keep Pace With Population Growths had the source data stated on the graph......straight from the CBO

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039KeyAssumptionsPotentialGDP_110125.xls

Geez Wayne, do your own homework!

_________________
I can have oodles of charm....... when I want to.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2011 8:54 pm 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Quote:
I do not know if it has been manipulated or not, but I do know it is very easy to manipulate it. To be able to discredit the manipulation one must first have the initial data source and the data used, otherwise one may just be discussing a strawman.


Uh Wayne, most of those graphs cited what the data source was and the SNAP data was straight from the USDA's own site!

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm


As I said, that was the claim, but there was no reference to what data was actually used in the chart. If the graph had been from the USDA's site that would be another thing, but it was from a secondary and unknown source to me. The credibility of such sites is not taken for granted, especially when they claim the need to hide their identities in order to be effective.

Quote:
And the CBO's graph on Monthly Payroll Growths to Keep Pace With Population Growths had the source data stated on the graph......straight from the CBO

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039KeyAssumptionsPotentialGDP_110125.xls


As I stated, I have seen too many cases where the claimed source data was not as described, especially when the graph is from a biased site. I tend to take them with a grain of salt as a result.

Quote:
Geez Wayne, do your own homework!


I do. I asked that you did the same in providing the supporting evidence for your claims.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 5:37 am 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Quote:
I do not know if it has been manipulated or not, but I do know it is very easy to manipulate it. To be able to discredit the manipulation one must first have the initial data source and the data used, otherwise one may just be discussing a strawman.


Uh Wayne, most of those graphs cited what the data source was and the SNAP data was straight from the USDA's own site!

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm


I suppose you did not actually check the data to see if it graphed the same?


Quote:
And the CBO's graph on Monthly Payroll Growths to Keep Pace With Population Growths had the source data stated on the graph......straight from the CBO

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039KeyAssumptionsPotentialGDP_110125.xls


I know you did not follow the link to check this data, correct?

Hint:

Quote:
Server Error404 - File or directory not found.
The resource you are looking for might have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable.


Quote:
Geez Wayne, do your own homework!


Like how the changes in the formula President Clinton's administration caused the inflation rate to diverge from your "acceptable" source in 1983? The track seems follow up to a point in the administration of President Reagan.


SiberD wrote:
Oh Wayne, never use statistics straight from the kool aid pitcher! Real inflation, as computed via the formulas before Clinton changed them all around, is over 10% annualized and the trend is still on an upwards basis. And, the higher fuel costs and grain costs(animal feed) hasn't fully manifested it's full effect.....yet.

Image

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 6:10 am 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:16 pm
Posts: 2453
Location: The only hole built above ground
Quote:
I suppose you did not actually check the data to see if it graphed the same?


Actually, I did. Well, not every single point only the yearly February points. It tracked.

Quote:
I know you did not follow the link to check this data, correct?


Again, I did and checked a few of the data points. It was an excel spread sheet and maybe I messed up the cut and paste on the addy. Sue me.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/KeyAssumptionsPotentialGDP_110125.xls

Quote:
Like how the changes in the formula President Clinton's administration caused the inflation rate to diverge from your "acceptable" source in 1983? The track seems follow up to a point in the administration of President Reagan.


Oh, cut the crap Wayne. Yes, there is a small divergence during the Reagan years but notice how wide it becomes after 1993. I'm done with this as your objections over the data presented has become silly and without merit.

_________________
I can have oodles of charm....... when I want to.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 6:42 am 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Quote:
I suppose you did not actually check the data to see if it graphed the same?


Actually, I did. Well, not every single point only the yearly February points. It tracked.


Good for you.

Quote:
Quote:
I know you did not follow the link to check this data, correct?


Again, I did and checked a few of the data points. It was an excel spread sheet and maybe I messed up the cut and paste on the addy. Sue me.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/KeyAssumptionsPotentialGDP_110125.xls


Just pointing out the obvious, which does not include the reason this graph was important.

Quote:
Quote:
Like how the changes in the formula President Clinton's administration caused the inflation rate to diverge from your "acceptable" source in 1983? The track seems follow up to a point in the administration of President Reagan.


Oh, cut the crap Wayne. Yes, there is a small divergence during the Reagan years but notice how wide it becomes after 1993. I'm done with this as your objections over the data presented has become silly and without merit.


A small divergence? If the entire divergence is ~7%, as your source seems to claim, the ~2.5% divergence is ~1/3 of the total. Not to mention the changes made in the later administration, but that may only take it to about half the adjustment credited to one administration.

I still have difficulty in seeing how that proves there is no recovery underway, especially since there are so many references to it in reports, media, and even the blogosphere.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 8:47 am 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:16 pm
Posts: 2453
Location: The only hole built above ground
Quote:
I still have difficulty in seeing how that proves there is no recovery underway, especially since there are so many references to it in reports, media, and even the blogosphere.


Well Wayne, we know the main stream media always tells the truth, eh? You can believe all the propaganda you want. Everything is all rainbows, flowers and unicorns crapping candy out their ....

I still say that food stamp participation rate tells the story. Its on an uphill climb every month. Why is that? Inflationary pressures on food prices? You'd have to be blind not to see the increases in food costs either directly or less and less product in the packages but at the same price as before.

Maybe those increases in jobs you've talked about are low paying, or part time, where the income received is not enough to pay for necessities?

You explain it away by calling it a lagging indicator, eh? I hope you're right but until that number starts decreasing I don't see your so called road to recovery.

_________________
I can have oodles of charm....... when I want to.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 9:20 am 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2003 9:27 am
Posts: 5776
Location: USA
SiberD wrote:
Everything is all rainbows, flowers and unicorns crapping candy out their ....


You caught it the last couple of days? They're crapping but candy isn't coming out.

_________________
TANG SOO!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 10:11 am 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!

Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 5:17 am
Posts: 9576
Well, there goes halloween....


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:30 pm 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
SiberD wrote:
Quote:
I still have difficulty in seeing how that proves there is no recovery underway, especially since there are so many references to it in reports, media, and even the blogosphere.


Well Wayne, we know the main stream media always tells the truth, eh?


No, but it is less likely to survive the review. Of course, I would not count the Faux news sources in that probability.

Quote:
You can believe all the propaganda you want. Everything is all rainbows, flowers and unicorns crapping candy out their ....


:eh:

Quote:
I still say that food stamp participation rate tells the story.


Not unless you have a lot of addendums to the chart. The number of those elligble exceede those who had applied, which should be the case now, but the circumstances are not known.

Quote:
Its on an uphill climb every month. Why is that?


More people are making the application who are eligble?

Quote:
Inflationary pressures on food prices?


Like rising fuel costs being passed on to the consumer?

Quote:
You'd have to be blind not to see the increases in food costs either directly or less and less product in the packages but at the same price as before.


That means there is no recovery how?

Quote:
Maybe those increases in jobs you've talked about are low paying, or part time, where the income received is not enough to pay for necessities?


Maybe, or maybe they are some of the families who report changes in their situation to SNAP authorities on quarterly or on a semi-annual basis and will not change status until then.

Quote:
You explain it away by calling it a lagging indicator, eh?


No, I point to the aspects you seem to overlook in the rush to claim that data proves there is no recovery.

Quote:
I hope you're right but until that number starts decreasing I don't see your so called road to recovery.


I somehow wonder if you would see it then.

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 8:29 am 
Offline
EnviroLink Volunteer
EnviroLink Volunteer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 10:45 pm
Posts: 20551
Location: Southeastern US
Image

_________________
With friends like Guido, you will not have enemies for long.

“Intellect is invisible to the man who has none”
Arthur Schopenhauer


"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."
Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2011 1:57 pm 
Offline
Member with over 1000 posts!
Member with over 1000 posts!
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
Posts: 2281
Location: Central Colorado
Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Thanks for the charts Siber D. I agree with most of the Tea Party ideals, and hate to see RINOs hide on the bandwagon. They are for border security and control, but fail to realize that >>>if all the illegals(30 million) were deported after paying fines owed and/or doing hard labor equivalent building the border barrier, and if the millions in the minority(10 million, incl. orgs.) who are encouraging(aiding, abetting, hiring, etc.) them paid the fines they owe by law (and/or do the time), it would be over 10 times the National Debt!!<<<< >>Just enforcing laws, and the Constitution, Art.4 Sec. 4, because we HAVE been invaded, is absolutely necessary.<< >>>The jobs recovery will not happen until ALL the illegals are deported, and immigration is stopped.<<
Conservatism has to get rid of the ridiculous compassion and tolerance of anti-Americanism in America. Gov't pay is up to double civilian, and has to come down. >>The budget MUST be balanced and the National Debt paid off.<< >>Those guilty of treason in Washington(600) and elsewhere must pay(city,and state officials in sanctuary areas), because they allowed the invasion and did not obey their solemn Oaths of Office to uphold the Constitution. :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: =D>

The solution to paying off the debt and getting Americans back to work is so simple. Placing a bounty on the ones owing the fines would help, like 10% for the bounty. The law also calls for confiscation of their property and selling it off. Remember Title8USC1324 iv, and Title8USC1325, and the laws on use of phoney IDs. Enforce the laws with an Eisenhower Sweep and bounty men. 8) :x

lowball 30 million illegals to 20 million times half owing the 5K fine plus 10K fine for phony IDs, or 10K average. That equals 200 billion in fines at the lowest.
Then you take the 10 million or double that, who have encouraged illegals in any way. They owe a 5K fine by law for each illegal or 10 million times 5K times 20 million illegals minimum. That is well over the National Debt. Let's start collecting and deporting, NOW!!!!
Politicians and activist judges against enforcing the laws are guilty of encouragement themselves and owe the fines. Not stopping an invasion that has been documented as killing many thousands of Americans each year, during a time of war, like now, is high treason with a death sentence. As far as I'm concerned we should dig up Reagan and Ted Kennedy and hang their bodies, too!!!

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 78 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Yahoo [Bot] and 11 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group