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EnviroLink Forum • View topic - Pre-coal anthropogenic climate factors

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:46 am 
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:32 pm 
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The basic idea of AGW is that;

1 Human activity produces CO2 (absolutley)

2 CO2 increases greenhouse warming of the atmosphere (Beyond me, let's assume so). The important question here is to what degree (sensitivity).

3 That increased temperature results in ice melting at the poles which increases sea level. Again how sensitive is this to temperature change being the key question.

If the pre-industrial activity of humans resulted in increased sea levels as a result of increased temperature (3-4 degrees c), as has been suggested,and the increase in sea level is demonstrated by the e3xistance of submerged villages off the coast of lots of places, then the sea level must have been of the order of 4m. That requires a melting of 1.4 million cubic killometers of ice.

Where was the big ice sheet which has disapeared in the last 7,000 years?

Or perhaps the land has a tendancy to move up and down. This could explain the drouned cities.

If humans have changed the climate by pre-industrial CO2 release then what we are doing now should have extreemly obvious results, the sort of thing which is quoted by the more insane alarmist types who speak of boiling seas etc.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:03 pm 
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The land does move up and down. Sometimes due to the impact of another tectonic plate and sometimes due to the weight of ice being added or removed from it.

The increase in sea level is not only due to less grounded ice, but also thermal expansion.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:34 pm 
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Getting back on subject;
"New(2005) evidence suggests that concentrations of CO2 started rising about 8,000 years ago, even though natural trends indicate they should have been dropping."
The average CO2 ppm for over a million years varied from 180 to 280 ppm, averaging 230 ppm. At the start of the use of fossil fuel in large amounts it had risen to near the upper variable, 275 ppm. Since then it has risen to now over 395 ppm. The agricultural plant hardiness zone map from the USDA in a separate thread showed a +5*F change from 1993 to 2012 (add 1/2*F rise from 1980 to 1993).
Human inputs or causes may have lead to perhaps a 40 ppm or more increase in CO2 in thousands of years, but in the past 180 years or so it has gone up geometrically another 120 ppm from human fossil fuel burning, and increasing slash and burn agriculture.
This lead to a stimulated mammal population crash curve during this recent period, and not in the past pre-coal era. In the pre-coal era human causes were an average increase per year of only ~.005 ppm, then once coal (then other fossil fuel) was burned profusely it accelerated to the present ~+3 ppm per year. :shock: [-X =;

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:21 am 
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Well, if the ice starts to melt it will increase sea level so the methane ice will be at higher pressure making it less able to melt/evaporate/boil.

When the CO2 was at 12% or more in the triasic the earth did not boil. It was hot, fair comment but it did not get silly.

Strange that the plumber and the IPCC agree that this run-away scenario will not happen.


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