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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:06 am 
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Is this due to global warming. THere are several angles to look at this. One is the odds of this happening without AGW. From James Hansen's point of view, which would be a whole earth point of view, this is in the background of a warmer earth, we received the loaded dice of extreme weather.

Heat Wave Peaks After Breaking Thousands of Records


The June to July heat wave finally began to ebb on Saturday, but not before breaking thousands of warm temperature records across the country. In many cases, records that had stood since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s have been equaled or exceeded, and this event is likely to go down in history as one of America's worst early summer heat waves.

It is also shining a spotlight on the role that human activities may be playing in this event, since studies have shown that manmade global warming increases the odds of extreme heat events and may make them warmer and longer lasting.



Surface temperatures on Saturday afternoon, July 7. Credit: UCAR.

On Saturday, high temperatures in the triple-digits could still be found in cities such as Baltimore, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Detroit, Philadelphia, Raleigh, and Washington, D.C., among others. However, cooler conditions were moving, or forecast to move, into those areas.

As of 4 p.m,, Washington Reagan National Airport had peaked at 104°F, which broke the daily record, but was 2 degrees shy of that location’s all-time record of 106°F.

The dangerous heat has already begun to lose its grip on parts of the Midwest, but not before shattering all-time high temperature records and causing several heat-related deaths. In Chicago, O’Hare Airport hit 103°F on Friday, 2 degrees shy of its all-time high, while Midway Airport reached 105°F. The string of three consecutive days of 100°F or higher temperatures (102°F on Wednesday, and 103°F on Thursday and Friday) is just one of three such strings in Chicago’s history, dating back to 1871.

According to the WGN TV weather blog, the period from July 1-7 had an average temperature of 87.4°F in Chicago, which is 13.8°F above normal.

Indianapolis hit 105 °F on Friday, while Cincinnati reached 104°F and St. Louis a remarkable 106°F.

On Friday, relief could not be found farther north, either. Lansing, Mich., had a high of 103°F, which was its all-time highest temperature. Lansing’s weather records date back to 1863. Also on Friday, Grand Rapids hit 104°F, which was its third-highest temperature ever recorded. According to the National Weather Service, Muskegon and Holland, Mich., both tied their all-time record highs as well.

Across the Lower 48 states on Friday, 322 daily record high temperatures were set or tied, along with 192 records for the warmest overnight low temperature. Of these records, 22 were all-time records.

During the period from July 1-6, 1,916 daily record high temperatures were set or tied, along with 1,034 records for warmest overnight lows. And since June 7, which is about when the heat first began to build in the West and the High Plains, there have been an astounding 7,693 warm temperature records set or tied in the U.S. These numbers are likely to increase as more information comes in to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

For the year, warm temperature records have been outpacing cold temperature records by a ratio of 7-to-1. In a long-term trend that demonstrates the effects of a warming climate, daily record-high temperatures have recently been outpacing daily record lows by an average of 2-to-1, and this imbalance is expected to grow as the climate continues to warm. According to a 2009 study, if the climate were not warming, this ratio would be expected to be even.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:14 am 
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K61qGvKl ... r_embedded


http://climatecrocks.com/2012/07/08/met ... erecho-is/


Add to the extreme record breaking heat the derecho


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:06 pm 
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No. It's called summer.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 4:48 am 
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The jet stream has moved to a different position than normal. The USA is having a heat wave whilst northern Europe is getting lots of rain.

Overall we will have to wait to see if this results in higher than average temperatures for the earth as a whole.

Is a deviation of the jet stream one of the perdictions of the AGW theory? Can you sight such a theory in any paper?


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:49 am 
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Milton Banana wrote:
No. It's called summer.


A record breaking summer to be sure. We tied the all time highest temperature recorded here while it was still spring.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:04 am 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
The jet stream has moved to a different position than normal. The USA is having a heat wave whilst northern Europe is getting lots of rain.

Overall we will have to wait to see if this results in higher than average temperatures for the earth as a whole.

Is a deviation of the jet stream one of the perdictions of the AGW theory? Can you sight such a theory in any paper?


http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n ... 07.38.html

Some of the earliest unequivocal signs of climate change have been the warming of the air and ocean, thawing of land and melting of ice in the Arctic. But recent studies are showing that the tropics are also changing. Several lines of evidence show that over the past few decades the tropical belt has expanded. This expansion has potentially important implications for subtropical societies and may lead to profound changes in the global climate system. Most importantly, poleward movement of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, such as jet streams and storm tracks, could result in shifts in precipitation patterns affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. The implications of the expansion for stratospheric circulation and the distribution of ozone in the atmosphere are as yet poorly understood. The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century, which suggests that there is still much to be learned about this aspect of global climate change.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:36 am 
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Here it rained throughout June, continued raining into July, with a month's worth of rain falling early on Saturday morning, culminating in the worst flooding here in living memory...
And still no sign of summer!

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 12:54 pm 
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If the science is right we only are experiencing temperatures 0.7 above average so I'm sorry to say we ain't seen nothing yet. In fact if you wan't to be pedantic (which many do) you could say that you can't prove that this is due to climate change. Climate change makes extreme events more likely an individual extreme event (extreme heat, record breaking summer floods) might be down to sheer luck.

I think that The very hot weather in some places and cool very wet conditions in other places is more that there is more energy in the atmosphere playing havoc with the jet-stream.


http://planet3.org/2012/04/08/the-inesc ... certainty/


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:45 pm 
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Global warming should in theory lead to:-

1 More severe Storms, as more water vapour in the atmosphere means that more latent heat is added to the atmosphere and so increasing the energy available those storms.

2 More severe droughts, heavier rainfall and increased frequency of flash flooding due to higher rates of evaporation leading to a more powerful water cycle.

3 Large local changes in climate due to changes in the path of the jet streams, as a result of a reduction in the difference between polar and equatorial temperatures.

4 A loss of Ice cover.

5 Rising sea level.

6 Shifts in the growing season.

7 Shifts in the tree line.

8 Altered animal behaviour in some cases leading to extinctions.

9 Altered plant responses for example changes in rates of transpiration.

10 Low lying coastal areas becoming inundated.

11 Rising sea temperatures causing coral bleaching

12 Increasing numbers of record hot days and fewer record cold days.


All these items have been observed over the last decade or more, and were predicted in most cases decades ago.

There is no doubt that global warming is occurring and recent weather patterns have been more extreme.

As examples we have the Pakistan floods. The heat waves of 2003 in Europe. The 2010 Russian heat wave. The recent North American heat wave. All these events lie a long way outside historical weather patterns.

http://environment.yale.edu/news/article/americans-connecting-extreme-weather-to-climate-change/

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