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EnviroLink Forum • View topic - How are you persudaed?

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 Post subject: How are you persudaed?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2012 2:48 pm 
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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyR ... commenttop

comment 109

The difficulty of a huge problem with viewpoints so far seemingly far apart. I enjoyed reading this summation of a science view of itself vs a non science view persuaded by other means.


"Many scientists, trained in a discipline of evidence-based knowledge generation, fall naturally to presenting evidence-based arguments, with the idea that ultimately the evidence-based argument will be convincing beyond reasonable doubt. In many ways this invites an argument more suitable to our approach to legal problems. We the scientist will present the evidence base. This will stand in contrast to the arguments of the non-scientist. There will, ultimately, be judgment in favor of the evidence base, because, well, it becomes self evident. This form of argument does not recognize that we often look at evidence and make decisions that deny the existence of that evidence. We make decisions that align with, our desires, our beliefs and what we want to believe." ........ I think this fairly accurately sums up the rest. The science is what it is. Science shows no bias, takes no sides and is not influenced by emotions. People, on the hand are biased, will take sides and are influenced by emotions. Without an understanding of the science then a person's belief is allowed to become their driving influence on anything concerning the science. You are correct, Barefoot. Charts, insults, graphs, coddling, pictures of ice and snow, taking ones hand to guide them through the chaos or anything else will not change a person's belief until it becomes self evident that they held the wrong belief. ... Science is an understanding and not a belief. Any belief held does not have to be based on any facts that are known. "Beliefs" will be nurtured and strengthened until the facts become self evident and these beliefs are cast aside.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:22 am 
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Since the "consensus" facts(IPCC's 4th report + other stuff) are that there is no danger of any catastrophy due to CO2 in the next centuary I will need to see something with a very strong evidence base to convice me that there is anything to worry about.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:21 am 
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:30 am 
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My point exactly. Tim is certainly entitled to his own views of what the report says: but it would be helpful if he notes that his conclusions are his own, and not those of said report.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:00 am 
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IPCC:-

Worst case scenario 6.4 degree c temperature rise by 2100 resulting in a 59cm sea level rise.

This has since been revised down to 3.2c temp gain. Presumably the sea level change has droped as well.

Sounds nice to me.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:18 am 
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:39 am 
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 2:32 pm 
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I think we should build walls to prevent the coastal people from moving inland. Let them go out to sea, while we on our burning mountaintops wave goodbye, and the inland desert takes over below.....Dim the Dumber has 'persudated' me that all will be fine and the heat is "droping". I guess that is good. :crazy: Think only of now and don't think about the future. #-o "ShaLa LaLa LaLa live for today, let's not worry about tomorrow hey, hey, hey." (The Grass Roots) :- :-({|= =; :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 4:31 am 
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:30 am 
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:34 am 
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 Post subject: The correct figures
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:38 am 
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Given the Netherlands currently spends ~$1 billion dollars USD a year on sea-level control for 451 km of coastline and there are 1,634,701 km of coastline in the world, there is ~3625 times the coastline to control. That would be a minimum of ~$3625 billion USD in cost if the numbers are extrapolated.

Given the GDP of the world in 2011 was $6,966 billion this would be a minimum of ~52% of the world GDP each year to deal with sea level rise. This, of course could be higher in some areas and lower in others where the land is just given up to the sea. This also assumes all countries would bear the cost, which is not correct as those with coastlines will pay those costs. That is also only the cost of sea level rise and does not touch on the impacts on current agriculture or infrastructure. Most countries will not be able to afford this hit.

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 Post subject: Re: The correct figures
PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 5:37 am 
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