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EstellePage
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:21 am 
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Well as anyone who lives in the UK knows, we haven't actually had a summer this year. Just cold weather and tons of rain. Now I know global warming = more rain (my geography teacher back in school went on and on about how it should really be called 'global warming and wetting') and I get that, with warmer air leading to more sea being evaporated (which kind of goes against sea levels rising doesn't it? Not that I'm saying they're not) and hence more rain. But isn't it supposed to be wetter and warmer? Where's all the sunshine??? :-k

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Johhny Electriglide
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:19 pm 
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Maybe you will eventually warm up!
https://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/fil ... rected.png

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Fosgate
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:03 pm 
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EstellePage wrote:
Well as anyone who lives in the UK knows, we haven't actually had a summer this year. Just cold weather and tons of rain. Now I know global warming =


Look at it in terms of "climate change" and it may make more sense. Some places will get cooler, some warmer. Some more rain than usual, some less. Is the amount of rain or the temperature this season any different that past ones, statistically?

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Ann Vole
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:49 pm 
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Temperate rain forests exist here in Canada. They make great places for ski resorts because they snow so much. All summer the temperature does not get warmer then about 12 degrees C. It is still a rain forest. You might find this to be the result on many parts of the world in a warmer globe. Here in the Canadian prairies, two years ago we had 4 years of rain in one summer and two years worth in one month. Since then, I have seen lots of giant rodents in the grass and I figure they are the bog lemmings that normally only live in... bogs. I think all that flooding killed off the regular vole species and the various mouse species and provided the perfect weather for bog lemmings to multiply. This is also an expected result of climate change... a new set of wildlife to take over.
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warmair
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:31 pm 
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EstellePage wrote:
Well as anyone who lives in the UK knows, we haven't actually had a summer this year. Just cold weather and tons of rain. Now I know global warming = more rain (my geography teacher back in school went on and on about how it should really be called 'global warming and wetting') and I get that, with warmer air leading to more sea being evaporated (which kind of goes against sea levels rising doesn't it? Not that I'm saying they're not) and hence more rain. But isn't it supposed to be wetter and warmer? Where's all the sunshine??? :-k

Estelle Page


Have a look at the UK met office site
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/
set
Climate variable
daily maximum temperature
Year
2012
month
as required
Map type
1971-2000 for Jan to June anomaly
1981-2010 July to present anomaly

You will see that Jan Feb and March were dramatically warmer and June and July were cooler and much wetter.
The first point should be obvious and that is more cloud in summer means lower temperatures due to the reduction in solar heating reaching the surface.
On the other hand in winter the cloud actually reduces the the rate of cooling and therefore temperatures stay above average.
This is easily confirmed by the observation that on clear nights the temperature drops much quicker than on cloudy nights.
Green house gases simply raise the average temperature everywhere but as they work primarily by reducing the rate at which cooling at the surface occurs, their effects show up most clearly in winter and at night.

The higher temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more water which in turn implies heavier rainfall in some areas. This appears to be happening with flash flooding and extreme rainfall events being reported in recent times.

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Snowy123
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:42 pm 
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I think there is still no solid link between increased variances in precipitation events and Climate Change. Natural Variability from the NAO/AO/AMO play a major role in the UK's Weather, and are probably more likely responsible for your summer's unusual weather than Climate Change.

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spot1234
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 1:38 pm 
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In simple terms its all due the position of the jet stream, how climate change affects that is not simple but I disagree with Snowy.

The Met office also seems to disagree with Snowy so I will link to their site and let people make up their own minds.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012 ... te-change/

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Is climate change playing a role?

In the long term, most climate models project drier UK summers – but it is possible there could be other influences of a changing climate which could override that signal on shorter timescales.

If low levels of Arctic sea ice were found to be affecting the track of the jet stream, for example, this could be seen as linked to the warming of our climate – but this is currently an unknown.

The Met Office Hadley Centre, working with climate research centres around the world, is making strides in determining how the odds of extreme weather happening have been influenced by climate change.

Taking into account this effect, perhaps it’s not surprising new records like those for this April and June are being set. In fact, the wettest July and November in the records dating back to 1910 happened in 2009, making a total of four record wettest months in the past four years. If wet months occurred randomly, we would expect only one record to have been broken since 2006.

For temperature, April (2011), May (2008), July (2006), September (2006) are all recent warmest records. Again, this is much more frequent than would be expected if temperatures were not rising.
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Snowy123
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:46 pm 
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spot1234 wrote:
In simple terms its all due the position of the jet stream, how climate change affects that is not simple but I disagree with Snowy.

The Met office also seems to disagree with Snowy so I will link to their site and let people make up their own minds.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012 ... te-change/

Quote:
Is climate change playing a role?

In the long term, most climate models project drier UK summers – but it is possible there could be other influences of a changing climate which could override that signal on shorter timescales.

If low levels of Arctic sea ice were found to be affecting the track of the jet stream, for example, this could be seen as linked to the warming of our climate – but this is currently an unknown.

The Met Office Hadley Centre, working with climate research centres around the world, is making strides in determining how the odds of extreme weather happening have been influenced by climate change.

Taking into account this effect, perhaps it’s not surprising new records like those for this April and June are being set. In fact, the wettest July and November in the records dating back to 1910 happened in 2009, making a total of four record wettest months in the past four years. If wet months occurred randomly, we would expect only one record to have been broken since 2006.

For temperature, April (2011), May (2008), July (2006), September (2006) are all recent warmest records. Again, this is much more frequent than would be expected if temperatures were not rising.


Like I said, Natural Variability is responsible for large variances in temperatures, and the NAO is a primary source of jet stream and pressure variability. I find it rather difficult to pin one event on Climate Change.

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EstellePage
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:31 am 
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Quote:
Look at it in terms of "climate change" and it may make more sense. Some places will get cooler, some warmer. Some more rain than usual, some less. Is the amount of rain or the temperature this season any different that past ones, statistically?


Yeah I'd never thought of it like this. Definitely the climate here is changing! Everyone goes on and on about 'global warming' though so I had it in my head everywhere would be hotting up.

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This is also an expected result of climate change... a new set of wildlife to take over.


Nothing that will outrank humans on the food chain I hope :p Maybe we'll all grow gills from all this rain...

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The first point should be obvious and that is more cloud in summer means lower temperatures due to the reduction in solar heating reaching the surface.
On the other hand in winter the cloud actually reduces the the rate of cooling and therefore temperatures stay above average.


Interesting... again I'd never thought of it this way. Thinking of it though, we had a huge heatwave here in April/May and I think the same was true last year as well, in spring time anyway before it normally gets hot.
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ralfy
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:34 pm 
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This might help:

"Is extreme weather caused by global warming?"

http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme ... arming.htm
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Johhny Electriglide
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:41 pm 
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"The 30 major droughts of the 20th century were likely natural in all respects", however THIS year's drought has gone beyond historic, which is one of the first effects of AGW. It also has pushed the jet stream into further oscillation, which is a big bringer of climate fluctuation beyond historic. This effect on crops gets to be a failure in one out of 3 years at any given location. One of the horsemen of the human population crash.
Another horseman, that rides in with continued fossil fuel burning, is self perpetuating methane releases to AETM and ELE. THAT could be stopped, maybe, IF humanity cuts HGHG emissions 90% by 2020 or before. After, the chance of stopping it decreases toward zero, rapidly. Lots of luck doing that with people like snowy and other denialists who throw all caution to the wind with tired rehashed debunked pseudo science garbage, and the fact it is easiest to do the wrong thing.
Half measures will avail us nothing. We stand at the turning point. One way is difficult, the other is easy at first, but becomes hell on Earth for future generations.

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EstellePage
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:12 am 
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After, the chance of stopping it decreases toward zero, rapidly.


That doesn't sound good :shock:

I just find the idea of everyone (or even 50% of people, or 25%) in the world suddenly becoming eco-friendly enough to save the planet. Let's face it, the vast majority of the world is too lazy, or just doesn't care :/ We can run these big campaigns and get people becoming more eco-friendly bit by bit (just heard that in the EU incandescent bulbs are now banned outright, expected to save 39 trillion watt-hours of energy - but they're still used everywhere in the US) but I don't see anything happening soon enough. Only when people are melting will they realise global warming exists and want to stop it, and then it'll be too late. Hubby doesn't think the planet will survive another 1000 years and I kind of have to agree with him (well, humanity anyway, the planet will probably right itself out eventually when we're gone!)
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