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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:14 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
I think that most of the warming in the Arctic is probably due to regional climate change up there amplified by Arctic Amplification, but you can not denythat natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. Various studies that I have read estimate the contribution from natural variability to sea ice decline to be around 40-50% or so.


You can deny that natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. I will post this again


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Remember if that graph stopped in the present it would be down to 4.10 million square kilometers.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:03 pm 
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spot1234 wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
I think that most of the warming in the Arctic is probably due to regional climate change up there amplified by Arctic Amplification, but you can not denythat natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. Various studies that I have read estimate the contribution from natural variability to sea ice decline to be around 40-50% or so.


You can deny that natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. I will post this again


Image

Remember if that graph stopped in the present it would be down to 4.10 million square kilometers.


Assuming this study's reconstruction is correct, when many other studies violently disagree with it clearly indicates a huge bias on your part.

Also, assuming that this study's reconstruction is right does not mean that natural variability has not played a large role in sea ice decline during recent decades.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:08 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
spot1234 wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
I think that most of the warming in the Arctic is probably due to regional climate change up there amplified by Arctic Amplification, but you can not denythat natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. Various studies that I have read estimate the contribution from natural variability to sea ice decline to be around 40-50% or so.


You can deny that natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. I will post this again


Image

Remember if that graph stopped in the present it would be down to 4.10 million square kilometers.


Assuming this study's reconstruction is correct, when many other studies violently disagree with it clearly indicates a huge bias on your part.

Also, assuming that this study's reconstruction is right does not mean that natural variability has not played a large role in sea ice decline during recent decades.


What are the "many other studies" which "violently disagree" specifically? You posted one based on models that agreed to a great deal with this one, so that give support for this reconstruction. It would also seem to show your bias if the same criteria were used for both determinations.

The studies do not indicate a natural variation aspect, but anything is possible. So the natural variation aspect is highly improbable based on the studies referenced.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2012 12:12 am 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Ozone may have contributed to the cooling of Antarctica, but I think that we need to understand all of the processes first, before we say things with absolute certainty.


I think that if you demand that we say things with absolute certainty, then you risk the logical collapse to solipsism, the idea that only one's own mind is sure to exist.

If you want to live in the world, you need to find a way to say things with not absolute certainty, but to the best of our scientific understanding.

Snowy123 wrote:
Stratospheric Temperatures have started increasing recently (since 1995) which could represent a recovery in the Ozone Layer (Liu and Weng 2009).


With reference to your comment above about stating things with absolute certainty: Did you know that the RSS measurement of the Temperature of the Lower Troposphere is still decreasing?

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Snowy123 wrote:
I also think that Ozone Depletion is far more complicated than what most people make it out to be. Anthropogenic CFCs had played a major role in Ozone Depletion, but there were also major natural components like Solar Proton Storms that also depleted the Ozone layer.


Also, for the deep Antarctic, stratospheric cooling contributes, because that causes de-nitrification.

Snowy123 wrote:
I think that most of the warming in the Arctic is probably due to regional climate change up there amplified by Arctic Amplification, but you can not deny that natural variability has played a significant role in Arctic Sea Ice depletion. Various studies that I have read estimate the contribution from natural variability to sea ice decline to be around 40-50% or so.


I think that the various studies that you are reading are not mainstream science. Have you checked the number of citations?


Last edited by Bored Wombat on Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2012 12:19 am 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Assuming this study's reconstruction is correct, when many other studies violently disagree with it clearly indicates a huge bias on your part.


This study was published in Nature, which is a reasonably high bar. Would you like to point us to some of these "many other studies" that "violently disagree with it"?


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:00 am 
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http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/...0-11-0589a.pdf

(Article starts close to the bottom of the first column and continues on the second).

Quote:
The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds



This must have been very worrying for some in 1922 when this was reported.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:26 pm 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/...0-11-0589a.pdf

(Article starts close to the bottom of the first column and continues on the second).

Quote:
The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds



This must have been very worrying for some in 1922 when this was reported.


Tell me what are current conditions in the same location?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:05 am 
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Quote:
Tell me what are current conditions in the same location?


I don't know but I would imagine that since the general climatic conditions are a bit warmer than then; that the ice has retreated a bit further.

The point I was making is that small changes in climatic conditions often results in very dramatic emotional responces from people.

The climate changes. It varies naturally. The present warmish period is not at all exceptional.

It might be due to CO2. I don't know. I do know that the small effects predicted by the IPCC will never result in the fall of civilisation.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2012 2:05 pm 
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Blowin' out sewage again, eh?
From skeptical science;
"It is wishful thinking to believe that the Arctic sea ice death spiral could simply be due to natural variability. The scientific literature clearly shows that human-caused warming is the main driver behind this exceptionally rapid decline."

http://www.skepticalscience.com/record- ... ennia.html



"(chart in article) summer sea ice extent

Figure 1: Average July through September Arctic sea ice extent 1870-2008 from the University of Illinois (Walsh & Chapman 2001 updated to 2008) and observational data from NSIDC for 2009-2011 (blue), with a fourth order polynomial fit (black soiid line). Black vertical dashed lines indicate the years 1938-43."
It also shows your 1922 lowering from previous decade, but the whole thing shows a huge drop from AGW.

and here for any further arguments from the denialists;
http://bravenewclimate.com/spot-the-rec ... al-series/

And to go with the 'death spiral';
http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 06484.html

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:58 am 
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Quote:
Blowin' out sewage again, eh?


Exactly what I mean by dramatic emotional reactions.

I don't care if the Arctic ocean is ice free.

There have been predictions of such for a long time.

It has not happened so far.

"Sceptical Science" is not sceptical and not at all scientific. It is a 100% biased blogg. The sort of thing I was drided for posting a quote from when the quote is now embarasing for the warmists.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 1:25 pm 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
Tell me what are current conditions in the same location?


I don't know but I would imagine that since the general climatic conditions are a bit warmer than then; that the ice has retreated a bit further.

The point I was making is that small changes in climatic conditions often results in very dramatic emotional responces from people.

The climate changes. It varies naturally. The present warmish period is not at all exceptional.

It might be due to CO2. I don't know. I do know that the small effects predicted by the IPCC will never result in the fall of civilisation.


So you spent all that time looking through newspaper clippings from 1922 and never bothered to look at a map and a satellite image telling you where current sea ice is.

Facts aren't very important when you make decisions are they Tim?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2012 3:39 pm 
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spot1234 wrote:
Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
Tell me what are current conditions in the same location?


I don't know but I would imagine that since the general climatic conditions are a bit warmer than then; that the ice has retreated a bit further.

The point I was making is that small changes in climatic conditions often results in very dramatic emotional responces from people.

The climate changes. It varies naturally. The present warmish period is not at all exceptional.

It might be due to CO2. I don't know. I do know that the small effects predicted by the IPCC will never result in the fall of civilisation.


So you spent all that time looking through newspaper clippings from 1922 and never bothered to look at a map and a satellite image telling you where current sea ice is.

Facts aren't very important when you make decisions are they Tim?



Just facts that support the pre-determined position need apply ....

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 3:48 pm 
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Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
Blowin' out sewage again, eh?


Exactly what I mean by dramatic emotional reactions.

I don't care if the Arctic ocean is ice free.

Do you care if the weather is too unstable to reliably grow the food that feeds most of the world's 7 billion population? Because the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice has coincided with the breakdown of normal weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 10 to 20 years. And now that multi-year sea ice has disappeared, and the Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers in just a matter of a few more years, it appears that we have our answer to the increasing extremes in heat and precipitation -- it appears that the Arctic ice plays a large role in the formation of an upper atmospheric current called the Polar Vortex or North Polar Jet Stream...that's what George Monbiot apparently calls it in this article on the recent record-breaking Arctic sea ice minimum: http://www.monbiot.com/2012/08/27/the-h ... he-moment/
Without the Polar Vortex separating the warm winds from the south, and the cold air in the frigid Arctic, air currents are free to flow back and forth, so temperate latitudes can be bombed by sub-zero temperatures, while Eastern Arctic regions like Baffin Island experience previously unheard of winter thaws. As for the effects on our lives -- well, if you start noticing food prices climbing to record levels in the coming years, and increasing wars and mass migrations in the southern latitudes, don't say you weren't warned!

Quote:
There have been predictions of such for a long time.

It has not happened so far.

Sounds like the joke about the guy calling out:"so far, so good!" after he jumps off a tall building.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:51 pm 
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right to left wrote:
Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
Blowin' out sewage again, eh?


Exactly what I mean by dramatic emotional reactions.

I don't care if the Arctic ocean is ice free.

Do you care if the weather is too unstable to reliably grow the food that feeds most of the world's 7 billion population? Because the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice has coincided with the breakdown of normal weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 10 to 20 years. And now that multi-year sea ice has disappeared, and the Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers in just a matter of a few more years, it appears that we have our answer to the increasing extremes in heat and precipitation -- it appears that the Arctic ice plays a large role in the formation of an upper atmospheric current called the Polar Vortex or North Polar Jet Stream...that's what George Monbiot apparently calls it in this article on the recent record-breaking Arctic sea ice minimum: http://www.monbiot.com/2012/08/27/the-h ... he-moment/
Without the Polar Vortex separating the warm winds from the south, and the cold air in the frigid Arctic, air currents are free to flow back and forth, so temperate latitudes can be bombed by sub-zero temperatures, while Eastern Arctic regions like Baffin Island experience previously unheard of winter thaws. As for the effects on our lives -- well, if you start noticing food prices climbing to record levels in the coming years, and increasing wars and mass migrations in the southern latitudes, don't say you weren't warned!

Quote:
There have been predictions of such for a long time.

It has not happened so far.

Sounds like the joke about the guy calling out:"so far, so good!" after he jumps off a tall building.


The Arctic Sea Ice declining may have led to changes in the weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.. or the changing weather patterns led more MYI to be flushed out of the Fram Straight, and therefore resulting in a thinner Arctic. We still don't know the answer today.

Arctic Sea Ice has been much lower in the past, and we have survived. Relax, my friend.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:24 pm 
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right to left wrote:
Tim the Plumber wrote:
Quote:
Blowin' out sewage again, eh?


Exactly what I mean by dramatic emotional reactions.

I don't care if the Arctic ocean is ice free.

Do you care if the weather is too unstable to reliably grow the food that feeds most of the world's 7 billion population? Because the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice has coincided with the breakdown of normal weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 10 to 20 years. And now that multi-year sea ice has disappeared, and the Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers in just a matter of a few more years, it appears that we have our answer to the increasing extremes in heat and precipitation -- it appears that the Arctic ice plays a large role in the formation of an upper atmospheric current called the Polar Vortex or North Polar Jet Stream...that's what George Monbiot apparently calls it in this article on the recent record-breaking Arctic sea ice minimum: http://www.monbiot.com/2012/08/27/the-h ... he-moment/
Without the Polar Vortex separating the warm winds from the south, and the cold air in the frigid Arctic, air currents are free to flow back and forth, so temperate latitudes can be bombed by sub-zero temperatures, while Eastern Arctic regions like Baffin Island experience previously unheard of winter thaws. As for the effects on our lives -- well, if you start noticing food prices climbing to record levels in the coming years, and increasing wars and mass migrations in the southern latitudes, don't say you weren't warned!

Quote:
There have been predictions of such for a long time.

It has not happened so far.

Sounds like the joke about the guy calling out:"so far, so good!" after he jumps off a tall building.


Snowy123 wrote:
The Arctic Sea Ice declining may have led to changes in the weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.. or the changing weather patterns led more MYI to be flushed out of the Fram Straight, and therefore resulting in a thinner Arctic. We still don't know the answer today.

Arctic Sea Ice has been much lower in the past, and we have survived. Relax, my friend.



We still do not know the answer on one hand, BUT you can make a solid claim on another with the same level of real uncertainty .... there is a term for that situtation and it is less than flattering.

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