Tim the Plumber wrote:
1880 is not all that long ago.
A prediction which takes into account things other than the factor being discused and allows for them.....;
If there is some means to accurately predict those other factors, yes. If there is no way to accurately predict the others factors. For example volcanic eruptions will affect a climate model as will particulate emissions and even economic up or downturns.
Well any multi-variable experiment.
Any decent high school experiment. Let's try this extreemly simple one;
Take a test tube half filled with seeds and stopped at the top with a rubber stopper which has a tube of glass in it which has a section of water in it. The water will move in or out depending on the seeds using or expelling air/gas.
Leave it a week and see what result you have.
Answer NONE AT ALL!!!!! The experiment needs a control to compair it to. Atmospheric pressure or temperature of the test tube will cause the water to move as well.
Where do you propose we get a control planet with which to use in our experiments?
All weather predictions have to take into account lots of factors. All economic predictions also do this.
Yes, WEATHER predictions can do so for a short term because the factors different directions become unpredictable at a certain point. The ten day weather prediction limit is very short term compared to climate prediction of decades or century levels. What will be the ecnomic activity during the next century? What will be the total carbon emission of humanity per year during that time? Those are two factors which will impact any climate predictions. If you cannot give an accurate prediction both would have to be kept stable for the prediciton.
What is the global economic prediciton for the year and the next decade? How accurate have these predictions been in the past for comparison?
It's very basic science!!!
Yes and basic climate predictions have to maintain certain factors as constant because they cannot be predicted accurately due to their being impacted by other unpredicted factors. That is very basic science too.