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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:37 am 
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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 710.x/full

The city of Washington, District of Columbia (DC) will face flooding, and eventual geographic changes, in both the short- and long-term future because of sea level rise (SLR) brought on by climate change, including global warming. To fully assess the potential damage, a linear model was developed to predict SLR in Washington, DC, and its results compared to other nonlinear model results. Using geographic information systems (GIS) and graphical visualization, analytical models were created for the city and its underlying infrastructure. Values of SLR used in the assessments were 0.1 m for the year 2043 and 0.4 m for the year 2150 to model short-term SLR; 1.0 m, 2.5 m, and 5.0 m were used for long-term SLR. All necessary data layers were obtained from free data banks from the U.S. Geological Survey and Washington, DC government websites. Using GIS software, inventories of the possibly affected infrastructure were made at different SLR. Results of the analysis show that low SLR would lead to a minimal loss of city area. Damages to the local properties, however, are estimated at an assessment value of at least US$2 billion based on only the direct losses of properties listed in real estate databases, without accounting for infrastructure damages that include military installations, residential areas, governmental property, and cultural institutions. The projected value of lost property is in excess of US$24.6 billion at 5.0 m SLR.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:04 pm 
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Won't really matter much, by 2045 or so, the country, or what is left of it will have begun a rapid population decline. The buildings of DC will eventually erode or be inundated in an ever hotter world of few people, then even fewer people until none are left.
The seeds for failure of a once great Republic are in place, as the seeds of overpopulation, pollution and depletion planted long ago, keep growing. :cry: :-({|=

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 6:57 pm 
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It will take imposition of dramatic changes in our society. As now structured politically there is
no hope. Perhaps catastrophic events or economic ruin will provide opportunity to change
the system before social meltdown.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:00 pm 
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I agree. There are catastrophic events that are due; Cascadia, the Azores slide/tsunami, and the large eruption due from Iceland that could cause a cooling and large crop loss. If they happen before AGW gets greater than the cooling effect, or the population crashes from cumulative depletion and pollution effects, they could be changers of the eventual outcome. :-k

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PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2013 4:55 pm 
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The Union of Concerned Scientists site offers an interesting mixture of data and graphs(Which can be enlarged) to show you the origins of ocean rise and its varied effects, which include one of particular concern to our Monterey Bay area, the increased salination of the coastal ground water and its threat to agriculture. One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/sc ... -rise.html


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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 8:04 am 
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Dingo wrote:
One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.


What variation? Global rise would be the same. Affected population in any given locale is a factor of its density, distribution, and land mass height relative to the new sea level.

Are you talking about projection variation?

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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 8:19 am 
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Fosgate wrote:
Dingo wrote:
One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.


What variation? Global rise would be the same. Affected population in any given locale is a factor of its density, distribution, and land mass height relative to the new sea level.

Are you talking about projection variation?


Actually, there is a regional varaiation in sea level rise due to factors such as land elevation change, prevailing winds and currents, or salinity and temperature change the relative sea level rise in different locations. Just as the global temperature is an average so is the global sea level rise.

http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_secret ... gion/2255/

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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 8:48 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
Fosgate wrote:
Dingo wrote:
One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.


What variation? Global rise would be the same. Affected population in any given locale is a factor of its density, distribution, and land mass height relative to the new sea level.

Are you talking about projection variation?


Actually, there is a regional varaiation in sea level rise due to factors such as land elevation change, prevailing winds and currents, or salinity and temperature change the relative sea level rise in different locations. Just as the global temperature is an average so is the global sea level rise.


Yes, I know that, but didn't catch anything in the article alluding to what the variation actually was in terms other than affected population. Maybe I missed it.

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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 12:11 pm 
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Fosgate wrote:
Dingo wrote:
One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.

What variation? Global rise would be the same.


From the article:
Quote:
From 1880 - 2009, Miami faced 12 inches of local sea level rise; Boston, New York, and Charleston, SC, 13 to 16 inches; Virginia Beach, 30 inches; and Galveston, TX, nearly three feet.


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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 1:18 pm 
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Dingo wrote:
Fosgate wrote:
Dingo wrote:
One set of measurements that caught my attention is the extreme variation in ocean rise in different localities.

What variation? Global rise would be the same.


From the article:
Quote:
From 1880 - 2009, Miami faced 12 inches of local sea level rise; Boston, New York, and Charleston, SC, 13 to 16 inches; Virginia Beach, 30 inches; and Galveston, TX, nearly three feet.


If it were a snake, it would have bit me. Thanks. I suppose my next question would be--extreme relative to what?

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