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 Post subject: THE FOURTH TIPPING POINT
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 5:00 pm 
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Yet Another Tipping Point Coming
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate ... oming.html
I have talked about coming tipping points of nature that human emissions are leading to, with numerous links in other threads here.
One was the fact that we are losing the Arctic Polar Ice Cap and the resulting more and more open water takes in more and more heat until it doesn't need more human emissions to keep warming.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/less-ic ... rming.html
Two is the fact that we are very close to Arctic tundra methane self release, which was first pointed out by field scientists in 2009, and we were given a time to reduce emissions 90% to prevent it. Hansen said 2016 and McKibben with others in a more exhaustive study said 2023. This represents about 2.5 times the carbon going into the atmosphere that humans put there.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -time-bomb
Three is the tipping point of ocean warming where the methane hydrate deposits at various depths self release from warming and cause more warming and more releases, until the entire ocean has released an equal or probably 20% greater amount of methane than the tundras do. This happens sooner than originally thought with recent ocean warming measurements.
Fourth is this one in the above article on the water and land itself putting out CO2 instead of taking it in with the natural absorption we've had for millions of years. :-k

We know that methane breaks down into CO2 and water vapor over a short period of 12 to 15 years and that clouds are a net small warming factor, along with the greater warming effect of CO2. At the rate peope are using slash and burn farming, and fossil fuel burning, until the inevitable population crash and most resources depletion in the late 2040s the CO2 will be at 470ppm, and the tundras will add another 500ppm or more and the oceans 600ppm or more. In 300 to 500 years the CO2 level will be 470 plus 500 plus 600 plus whatever the CO2 is released from the water itself and the ground, at least another 400ppm in my educated opinion. That is a world with a CO2 atmospheric amount of somewhere around 2000ppm. The warming of another 30*F is possible by this thermal maximum, too fast for adaptation of most species, and ecosystems we need to survive.
This is a phenomenon that will take several million years to recover from for the biosphere. That is, without a runaway greenhouse effect which could well happen, especially if the survivors of the population crash continue to burn fossil fuels until the last bit that is recoverable, according to Hansen, a guarantee.
That is the worst thing, because there would be no recovery and the Earth would lose its biosphere completely with oceans evaporated and ground heated to hot down hundreds of feet. Called the Venus Effect, that I hope humanity does not cause.
Personally, and I'm sure the majority also, would not even want to see the thermal maximum let alone even worse. So now is the time to spread the word to everyone to reduce emissions somehow 90% by 2023, by reducing demand with lower standard of living, lowering population, replacing all coal burners with GenIV nuclear, solar, wind, non-emissions made hydrogen, tidal and wave generators, and anything else that can be implemented fast. :thumbup:
No matter what, by before that time, even if they are not replaced yet, all coal and fossil fuel plants must shut off. Slash and burning should be punishable by death. Vehicles must be reduced and all small hybrids or electric, and the rest shut off permanently. If houses have to use fuels to heat, then that means they emit and must be lessened to that 10% of former. Super insulation and solar thermal gain and geothermal will help, but people will not be able to be as comfortable as previously. Some have called it a medieval type existence, and others a return to the stone age. WE have reduced the amount necessary for well over a decade and don't live in the stone age, with our solar power. We had one child to carry on, and hopefully not suffer any more from overpopulation (jobs taken by illegals and over-immigration)and CAGW. His education has so far shown him the way of reduced emissions living, and he is careful not to contribute to overpopulation, but rather help like we did. Everyone on Earth must help and punish those that selfishly do not help. The new medieval world should not be kind to greed, from genetic greed to food greed, to other types harmful to the whole. The accumulation of all of the human knowledge must be kept viable, until such time that the biosphere has healed, and as long as there are people and their descendants. :wave: O:) [-o< :mrgreen:

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Sat Aug 10, 2013 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:20 pm 
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Why argue about little stuff like Monsanto corn and animal welfare, when it takes away from doing anything about lowering emissions and population. The worst environmental problems there are.

"Personally, and I'm sure the majority also, would not even want to see the thermal maximum let alone even worse. So now is the time to spread the word to everyone to reduce emissions somehow 90% by 2023, by reducing demand with lower standard of living, lowering population, replacing all coal burners with GenIV nuclear, solar, wind, non-emissions made hydrogen, tidal and wave generators, and anything else that can be implemented fast." :thumbup:

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2013 7:34 pm 
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Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Yet Another Tipping Point Coming
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate ... oming.html
I have talked about coming tipping points of nature that human emissions are leading to, with numerous links in other threads here.
One was the fact that we are losing the Arctic Polar Ice Cap and the resulting more and more open water takes in more and more heat until it doesn't need more human emissions to keep warming.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/less-ic ... rming.html
Two is the fact that we are very close to Arctic tundra methane self release, which was first pointed out by field scientists in 2009, and we were given a time to reduce emissions 90% to prevent it. Hansen said 2016 and McKibben with others in a more exhaustive study said 2023. This represents about 2.5 times the carbon going into the atmosphere that humans put there.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -time-bomb
Three is the tipping point of ocean warming where the methane hydrate deposits at various depths self release from warming and cause more warming and more releases, until the entire ocean has released an equal or probably 20% greater amount of methane than the tundras do. This happens sooner than originally thought with recent ocean warming measurements.
Fourth is this one in the above article on the water and land itself putting out CO2 instead of taking it in with the natural absorption we've had for millions of years. :-k

We know that methane breaks down into CO2 and water vapor over a short period of 12 to 15 years and that clouds are a net small warming factor, along with the greater warming effect of CO2. At the rate peope are using slash and burn farming, and fossil fuel burning, until the inevitable population crash and most resources depletion in the late 2040s the CO2 will be at 470ppm, and the tundras will add another 500ppm or more and the oceans 600ppm or more. In 300 to 500 years the CO2 level will be 470 plus 500 plus 600 plus whatever the CO2 is released from the water itself and the ground, at least another 400ppm in my educated opinion. That is a world with a CO2 atmospheric amount of somewhere around 2000ppm. The warming of another 30*F is possible by this thermal maximum, too fast for adaptation of most species, and ecosystems we need to survive.
This is a phenomenon that will take several million years to recover from for the biosphere. That is, without a runaway greenhouse effect which could well happen, especially if the survivors of the population crash continue to burn fossil fuels until the last bit that is recoverable, according to Hansen, a guarantee.
That is the worst thing, because there would be no recovery and the Earth would lose its biosphere completely with oceans evaporated and ground heated to hot down hundreds of feet. Called the Venus Effect, that I hope humanity does not cause.
Personally, and I'm sure the majority also, would not even want to see the thermal maximum let alone even worse. So now is the time to spread the word to everyone to reduce emissions somehow 90% by 2023, by reducing demand with lower standard of living, lowering population, replacing all coal burners with GenIV nuclear, solar, wind, non-emissions made hydrogen, tidal and wave generators, and anything else that can be implemented fast.

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic ... permafrost
http://www.wunderground.com/climate/PETM.asp?MR=1
http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-Loomi ... nt-us.html
http://www.wunderground.com/news/meltin ... e-20130927
The Four Horsemen and links, too!!

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 11, 2013 4:36 pm 
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Interesting read from the previous post. It shows a robust debate by experts on the question of sudden versus gradual release of large quantities of methane, in the arctic region particularly, as the earth warms.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -time-bomb


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 pm 
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Hiya, Dingo! There's a lot of debate with emotions running against acceptance of facts and their projections.
It is terrible to think of sometimes. So different than our comfortable lives (unless already a victim of climate fluctuation beyond historic). So an emotional wall has to be available to look at the practicalities. Do the job, fly the mission, on instruments pay attention to your scan and don't let fear or physical feelings get in the way of professionally and safely flying the aircraft. Or in science follow procedures and keep recording data, and analyze it later, but soon.
The slow versus fast in this particular debate are not exactly like normal people's version of it. Fast is still up to a thousand years and slow is up to 20K years!
Each one has conditions that may make it right.
The slow could still happen if human population drops sooner, the Katla Eruption(and its size) and Cascadia "Rip" occur within a decade, or a nuclear war, extremely fast and deadly disease, general criminality and many local wars.
The fast is the probability with "business as usual", insufficient reduction in time of emissions, and the die-off at mid century or after.

The measurements of some critical data show a very fast trip to AETM on a geologic scale. The oceans are warming far faster than previously thought possible. Last year's CO2 was 31.6GTs versus 5GTs/year before PETM. The rate of warming was .025*C per century, and now it is 1*C/century accelerating toward 4*C per century. PETM took 17 to 20K years to warm 16*F over the already 10*F warmer climate than now, and AETM is well over that amount in less than a thousand years from the beginning of the industrial age. It could very well hit +25*F or more in 500 years!
Katla and an earlier die-off, but with insufficient emissions reductions in time may just be a short several year delay to AETM.
People over-react and think of AETM or thermageddon as if it is leading to "the Venus Effect", when a study showed that was highly unlikely, and that we'd need 8 times more carbon.
So most likely humans and most present life will go extinct soon, geologically, and bountiful new life will again be the norm in 3 million years. Whether a new form of intelligent life on Earth, or an alien space-fairing explorer discovers and studies our fossils and remains of various materials and pollution, is open for dreaming about. :-k :mrgreen:

Note; this year it is 36 billion tons of CO2 let off by human activity---a substantial rise from 31.6GT in a year. In a time when humans know the should and must reduce emissions, they rise with impure desires of greed .

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:33 pm 
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Johhny Electriglide wrote:
Fast is still up to a thousand years


In your link they describe it in decades.

Quote:
A 2010 scientific analysis led by the UK's Met Office in Review of Geophysics recognised the plausibility of catastrophic carbon releases from Arctic permafrost thawing of between 50-100 Gt this century, with a 40 Gt carbon release from the Siberian Yedoma region possible over four decades.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:14 pm 
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Well, Dingo, they are both right. It is already accelerating in releases. After the 2023 tipping point is passed, lowering human caused emissions will no longer stop the tundras from warming by self release without more human input.
It is estimated that the carbon just from the Arctic tundras is 2.5 times the carbon humans put in the atmosphere from the industrial age start to the crash of 2050. After and with that, the oceans will also be self warming and reach the methane hydrates there deeper until it is all in the atmosphere, another 25% or so larger amount(3 times the human amount added on to the 2.5=5.5 times as much HGHGs as will be in 2050 unless emissions change ). The top report says it will even release from ground and water for even more warming. I estimate +32*F by 2,500AD, gradually reducing to 20th century average by around 222,000AD, then 20M species again by 3,000,000AD.
The rate of ocean warming had cut the time to AETM from 3000AD to 2500AD or sooner. That is when the ELE will be occurring.
I still like to think humanity will reduce emissions 90% in 9 years. You know, hope for the best, and there is no real adaptation or preparation for the second worst(AETM ELE). #-o Or the improbable first worst "Venus Effect". :cry:

From Sushi, I agree:
"Industrialization was the biggest crime on earth.
Agrarian society was the limit for man on earth.
Cities are the Graveyards of Nature, Urban Dwellers the Executioners."
(to the music of Cream, "Deserted Cities of the Heart")

Quote of the Week

“In terms of global warming and ocean acidification,” Professor Olsen* said, the rate of change during the end-Triassic extinction “was comparable to what we’re doing today.”

*Paul E. Olsen, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2013 3:34 pm 
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Originally, before the ocean warming acceleration was recognized, it was figured that AETM would be 2500 to 3500, or 3000AD. Then this was reduced to 2300 to 2500AD if emissions are not reduced 90% by 2016 to 2023, hoping for the later date. Now, there is a possibility it could be faster;
http://americablog.com/2013/09/climate- ... -2100.html
This was a link from SkS's weekly report.
Of course, most still think, so what, I won't be alive, so business as usual as long as possible with misinformation campaigns and heavy money to lobbyists and politicians, to keep it too little too late, for the profits! Plus dying rich and happy, until they meet a not amused Creator and get what is coming to them. Hell for a while then non-existence. IMEO

3 registered users here besides me :mrgreen: ---Bing[Bot], Exabot[Bot] and Google[Bot]!!! Registered users??? :twisted: How can a robot register??? :?:
21 guests. We need a regular revolution in actions and morals and what do we get? Robots and hiding guests 8-[ . Fear :crazy: and greed [-X , lust =P~ and jealousy :problem: , and utter stupidity :eh: . :x :evil: 8) :lol:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... CMP=twt_fd

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:04 pm 
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Looks like Milton and his ilk forgot to, or could not, read this thread!!!!
No excuse for bad memory or low intelligence if you've got a computer and internet...IMHO :twisted: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 2:58 pm 
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Humans are stopping the glacial cycle, and many would say, "Great!". They fail to see the population crash rushing at them or the slower, but very fast geologically, 30*F heat buildup over a 500 or so year period. From #2 SKS Weekly Digest;
Quote of the Week

Even today, "there is some degree of uncertainty about natural variability," acknowledged Mark McCaffrey, programs and policy director of the National Center for Science Education based in Oakland, Calif. "If it weren't for the fact that humans had become a force of nature, we would be slipping back into an ice age, according to orbital cycles."

But earth's glacial rhythms are "being overridden by human activities, especially burning fossil fuels," McCaffrey noted. The stories about global cooling "are convenient for people to trot out and wave around," he said, but they miss the point:

"What's clear is we are a force of nature. Human activity – the burning of fossil fuels and land change – is having a massive influence. We are in the midst of this giant geoengineering experiment."

Of help in reducing emissions 90& in 9 years, are alternative energy batteries;

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bat ... e-93287133
Excerpt; "A new battery that relies on cheap organic molecules could help stockpile energy from renewable sources such as solar and wind power for use on cloudy and breezeless days.

Scientists have grappled with ways to bank power from intermittent energy sources because municipal power grids demand a continuous flow.

The new battery relies on quinones, common chemicals found in many forms of life that help hold energy for later use, Harvard researchers report in the Jan. 9 Nature. Previous designs of similar batteries have used metal compounds, which can be expensive, rather than quinones.

The device is a type of flow battery, in which two separated liquids pass in and out of a cell with electrodes. A membrane in the middle of the cell prevents the two solutions from mixing but allows ions to travel between them. To charge the battery, electricity causes a quinone-carrying liquid to accept electrons from the current and protons from the other liquid, containing bromide. The liquids then flow out of the cell and into storage containers. To extract energy from the battery, the liquids pass back though the cell and undergo the reverse chemical reaction."

Cool 8) :mrgreen:

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2014 1:50 pm 
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Bump above idiot fence sitters thread :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Customizable Global Warming Widget Metrics
Posted on 17 February 2014 by Bob Lacatena

The Skeptical Science Heat Widget was introduced almost three months ago, to demonstrate our planet's continuing build up in heat using a variety of measures.

To add more variety to the many presentations of the widget across the web, it can now be configured by the host to present any of the five available metrics as the starting metric. To host the widget, visit the Skeptical Science Widgets page, configure your widget (use the new Metric button to select your starting metric), click the Generate button, and follow the instructions to install your widget.

The heat widget continues to be picked up by more and more blogs, and to be seen by more and more people — more than two million so far. It was created to help convey the rate at which the planet's climate system continues to accumulate heat, even as cold snaps strike central North America, heatwaves hit Alaska and Australia, and unprecedented floods hit the UK. It does so by using measurements of the total heat increase in recent decades in the oceans, land, and atmosphere as well as the heat going into permanently melting ice.

The rate is 2.5 x 1014 Joules per second, a number that is meaningless to most people. To help people understand, by putting this number into human terms, the widget translates this into values of large expenditures of energy that are within the range of human experience. Primary among these metrics is the Hiroshima atomic bomb, which people can easily visualize as unleashing a tremendous amount of energy. (4 per second heat gain, and accelerating...)
http://www.skepticalscience.com/customi ... trics.html

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:03 am 
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The end is nigh!

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:28 pm 
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Fosgate wrote:
The end is nigh!
:shock:
:mrgreen: Not for us, but for the human and millions of other species. We are already in an extinction episode from man as per Leakey's 1996 book. The increase in less than 500 years will be worse than the K=T Event. :cry:
What is "nigh" is the ability to stop the process. #-o Some think we are already too late with the momentum in the system, but that was taken into account with the "2023" study in a link above :idea: , and the 2016 was a figure given only for fossil fuel 90% reduction from 2000, not including the 30% from agriculture. #-o
For those of us with extensive observation and experience along with high intelligence and caring, and large education, it is not hard to see ahead or behind in time, or on to cosmology and physics. :angel: :-k
I won't be here, except maybe in spirit, when the crash followed 400 years later or so by thermageddon. To a geologist that is very quickly indeed, or "nigh". I don't like the facts at all. :x
It seems to me that people could have been more far sighted and less greedy, but they just are not. :oops: Most are like another herd type species, or very bad monkeys :thumbdown: , to me, IMEO. Too bad there is was not enough time or effort to speciate. :mrgreen:
It is possible those that can escape underground with breeder Gen IV reactors, grow lights and supplies, could speciate into something different :sick: :wtf: :crazy: :eh: , if they can last the millions of years to biosphere recovery, or at least until most sequestration of CO2 is done in a couple of hundred thousand years.

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:15 pm 
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:06 pm 
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^BUMP over milt garbage

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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