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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 4:15 pm 
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Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
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Location: Central Colorado
"Tubes of Probability" were my specialty for a long time. It is too bad that I personally could not stop overpopulation and pollution, while all my efforts were negated by deniers and their big fossil fuel money.
The tundra and ocean methane releases as a positive feedback loop are very close, compared to open ocean warming and the tundra self release. We already have substantial methane releases from the warming oceans plus more going into solution. The Arctic methane releases are not quite self sustaining yet, but the heat up there is very close to causing it.
It was incredible to fly from CoSpgs to Buffalo, NY and back last week and Sunday. As far as I could see in all directions from 38K' was solid white like Venus, from the record forest fires in the USA and Canada.
The last tipping point of CO2 self release will not be for over two thousand years. The last surface creatures will be dead by 2150 to 2200. That is with only a 10*C rise. By one thousand years from now, the oceans will start boiling off. For a thousand years. Final stasis several thousand years later as a 200*C thick clouded, CO2/Nitrogen/acids/O2 and other rare gases planet superficially similar to Venus.
It can maybe be stopped, but probably won't be without Divine Intervention. IMEO
No 30 million year recovery like PETM and the Permian partial methane turnover episodes from many years of huge volcanism. Humans have become as powerful as volcanism, causing atmospheric changes 40 times as fast as PETM. The major heat gain of PETM was found to only be in 13 years, after massive methane self release, and seismic caused massive methane hydrate explosive discharges. The Siberian Traps have definitely been shown to be the cause of the Permian Great Dying, with tripping the methane self release. PETM has also been shown to be from 30K years of heavy volcano eruptions. This one from human overpopulation and industrial pollution from mostly the past 100 years. The real exponential heating, even with the 'hockey stick', is not yet beginning. That will be not later than 2043 and possibly as early as 2028. Many or most alive today will see the end of civilisation and the mass death of most of the human population, from a combination of effects.
It is a sad thing to have observed so long, and was preventable last century. I do not consider 50% to be good odds IF humanity reduces emissions three times as much and twice as fast as all recent proposals. I believe it is logistically now impossible to reduce emissions enough and therefore a 100% probability of a thermal max extinction episode with no geologists left to document it. It is really something to pray for something to happen that will stop the mad rush to extinction.

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"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:56 am 
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Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:59 am
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Location: Central Colorado
Here is a group of pictures from this year's record methane releases.
http://www.weather.com/slideshows/news/ ... ne-bubbles
Here is more;
New Study — Risk of Significant Methane Release From East Siberian Arctic Shelf Still Growing
"Large plumes of methane bubbling up from the Arctic Ocean sea-bed, saturating the water column, venting into the air, adding significantly more heat forcing to an already dangerous, fossil fuel-based, accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s a nightmare scenario. One in which human-forced warming, already at 1 C above 1880s levels, is further amplified through the feedback release of ancient carbon stored over the past 8 million years of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. And a recent study by the now famous Semiletov and Shakhova team provides still more reason for appropriate concern that such an event may be in the works."
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/09/10/n ... l-growing/
Here are some good presentations;
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/201 ... se-of.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=4&v=L19JBY0kNmo

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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