Global oil demand may peak by 2030, but natural gas timeline shifts as climate progress slows

The world could see oil consumption reach its highest point around 2030 before beginning a decline, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook released Wednesday. However, the report reveals a more sobering picture for overall climate progress, with the timeline for transitioning away from fossil fuels extending longer than previously anticipated.

While renewable energy continues its impressive growth trajectory, the IEA now projects that natural gas demand will peak five years later than forecast in last year’s report. This delay reflects slower-than-expected policy implementation and changing geopolitical dynamics that have affected energy markets globally. The agency’s analysis is based on countries following through with their current “stated policies” rather than more ambitious climate commitments.

The mixed findings highlight the complex nature of the global energy transition. On one hand, the projected peak in oil demand within this decade represents a significant milestone, driven by accelerating adoption of electric vehicles, improved energy efficiency, and growing renewable energy capacity. On the other hand, the extended timeline for reducing natural gas consumption suggests that achieving net-zero emissions targets will require more aggressive policy action.

The report underscores the critical gap between current policy trajectories and the rapid decarbonization needed to limit global warming. While renewable energy deployment continues to break records, the slower overall transition timeline emphasizes the urgency for governments to strengthen their climate policies and accelerate the shift away from all fossil fuels to meet international climate goals.