Every five-year delay in reaching net zero will make deadly heatwaves worse for centuries

A groundbreaking study reveals the stark consequences of delaying global climate action: every five years we postpone reaching net zero emissions will result in more intense, longer-lasting, and frequent heatwaves that will persist for over 1,000 years.

Researchers from Australia’s ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and CSIRO conducted an unprecedented analysis spanning the next millennium, modeling how heatwave patterns would evolve based on different timelines for achieving net zero emissions between 2030 and 2060. Their findings paint a sobering picture of the long-term climate legacy we’re creating with each year of delay.

The study’s most alarming revelation is that once we finally reach net zero emissions, heatwaves will not simply return to pre-industrial conditions. Instead, the elevated temperatures, extended duration, and increased frequency of extreme heat events will remain locked in for at least 1,000 years – meaning multiple generations will inherit the consequences of today’s climate decisions.

This research underscores the critical importance of immediate climate action, as the window for limiting long-term heat impacts is rapidly closing. The findings suggest that the difference between reaching net zero in 2030 versus 2035, 2040, or later will determine the severity of heatwaves that our children, grandchildren, and dozens of future generations will endure. For policymakers and world leaders, the message is clear: delaying emissions reductions today commits humanity to centuries of increasingly dangerous heat extremes tomorrow.