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Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:23 pm ]

Optimism Faces Grave Realities at Climate Talks

"WASHINGTON — After more than two decades of trying but failing to forge a global pact to halt climate change, United Nations negotiators gathering in South America this week are expressing a new optimism that they may finally achieve the elusive deal.

Even with a deal to stop the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn, the world will become increasingly unpleasant. Without a deal, they say, the world could eventually become uninhabitable for humans."
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/world ... 21197&_r=1

We're Kidding Ourselves on 2-Degree Global Warming Limit: Experts
By John Roach
"A temperature rise that could cause irreversible and potentially catastrophic damage to human civilization is practically inevitable, according to rising chatter among experts in the lead up to a year of key negotiations on a new climate change global accord.
"Given the world's historic emissions combined with a continued reliance on fossil fuels to power humanity for the foreseeable future, limiting the increase to 2 degrees Celsius is all but impossible, according to David Victor, a professor of international relations and an expert on climate change policy at the University of California, San Diego. "
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environm ... ts-n257006


Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:08 pm ]

Before getting to the series of deadly tipping points let us hope that humanity reduces HGHGs to 10% of 1998 level by 2024. Somehow this must be avoided.....

http://grist.org/climate-energy/these-f ... gn=climate

Actually, the TRUTH DOES hurt! :mrgreen:
With oceanic methane release coming sooner than expected, the heat buildup will be very fast when the tundra goes self releasing with its methane. I wonder if we really do have 8 years left to reduce HGHGs to 10% of 1998 level. Really, unless the population crashes within that time, the only thing to save the biosphere will be to use 1 MGT 1 mile deep and 1/2 mile away every ten miles around the Yellowstone magma chamber. Simultaneous detonation will cause the super eruption and we will go through a Toba-like bottleneck with 2/3 of the species. This will be followed by a return to the glacial cycle. Then, next interglacial, maybe humans will be smart enough to not overpopulate and use resources faster than replenished, or pollute faster than it can be absorbed.
It could lead to a worse than Permian extinction event, with a greater than 50 million year recovery, if any at all, and it does not run away to a cloudy 450*F planet with 100% methane 'turnover'.
It is unfortunate for the future of our biosphere that the usual too little too late tends to prevail, with the inertia of humanity to change. The only thing that could change it all is an immediate Cascadia event, or La Palma slide tsunami, or Katla volcanic winter eruption. All due now....and only IF before 2024. After that, it will take a forced Yellowstone super-eruption to stop CAGW and gross overpopulation at the same time, saving the biosphere for eventual future generations from humans to most other life. :mrgreen:

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:20 pm ]

"The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 2/abstract

A year ago, but last spring saw Arctic temperatures from 3 to 9*C hotter than the high 1989 record(after AGW set in). Other articles show that the tipping point of methane turnover is a +5*C in the arctic geologic history. According to open ocean warming being in runaway since 2007, and its relentless addition to methane turnover, like a domino effect but even closer and more connected. For example, the oceans are warming faster and releasing more methane than previously thought.
Many refuse to give up trying to make humanity sustainable, and think if we transition to zero carbon by 2050 all will be fine. Others think we can stay within 2*C of warming but have been proven that this is at least .2*C too high to stop thermageddon.
According to the best data and math, reducing to 90% of 1998 HGHG level by Jan 2024 would have worked, but is impossible due to human uncaring and inaction with selfishness.
If Cascadia, La Palma, and Katla all go off, it could crash the population enough to do those emissions reductions. But, will they even stop what is already going on??..... How can we refreeze the Arctic??
Could the super eruption of just Yellowstone do it? Or is Toba needed, too. Could nuclear bombs really set off a super-volcanic eruption? If drilled at appropriate depth and distance, with enough power??? Who will play God?
If it is already an unstoppable process by any means, then not a darn thing will make any difference and it will take an intervention by God to save us and our planetary biosphere that was originally God's Gift. I do not think that most people are worthy, having committed deadly sins, often obliviously. :-({|=
No matter what happens, the near future of humanity is going to get more miserable

Author:  Johhny Electriglide [ Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:07 pm ]

The tipping point for one child families to work to prevent the crash was 1998, with momentum and the all-important 'implementation time'. Then it fell below one child, and is now at a little under zero. One species crashing from a stimulus or stimuli induced rapid population gain then near vertical drop, does not usually take more species or at least not many with it, and would come out below sustainable then undulate around this slower changing sustainable level.
Back at Earth Day One, all it would have taken is a max of two. Then it fell below that by 1986. If that had been done more easily back then, in the early 1970s, the emissions and population would have dropped to less than half of now. Much easier to go green for everyone.
I think about tipping points to positive feedback loops, and how overpopulation seems to feed on itself in a positive feedback loop, which is really very negative. More business! It's the economy! Yeah, it should have gone to steady state before any of these tipping points were crossed.
What is to prevent the more carbon of today from stopping at only some percentage of methane turnover? It stopped at some point of percentage with both PETM and the Permian ELE. The rates and amount and types of change are much more rapid now, than then 55 and 300 MYBP.
The chance of blowing off the roof of those events is very good. Too good......

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