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PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:53 pm 
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Well, looks like methane releases north side of Alaska's coast, and most of the ice that was slush is gone, with numerous icebergs flowing out, also. The high ocean temperature anomalies have taken out Norwegian sensor readings, but the north side of Greenland is releasing copious methane, too. These warmer waters are setting off small exposed methane hydrate deposits from Svalbard to near the pole, but not in ESAS. We might be saved for a year or two after all. We have some time to go, but it doesn't look like we'll bust the 2012 Arctic ice volume minimum. It is when an 800' deep +1.25*C or more warming anomaly hits just one end of a 50 mile by one half mile methane clathrate deposit explosively releases, then the rest rips into a chain reaction explosive release from the mechanical force of the first section to blow. The resulting tsunami will also be destructive. Even if some or all is ignited by brave volunteers or automatic devices, the resulting heat and CO2 would continue runaway.
All the methane hydrate deposits should be considered as if it were silver fulminate. IMHO :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 5:53 pm 
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graphs show late August began a departure, methane maps began to show heavy amounts of methane being released in the Arctic, October saw reports from Alaskan Yupik fishermen of the ocean "boiling" as far as they could see, and the Siberian Times article on this year's Arctic Ocean and Kara Sea expedition, fountains by the hundreds reported from the 2011-14 expedition had turned into fountains up to over a kilometer wide by the thousands. Very heavy releases, totaling ~5GTs, until early this month abating 50% with Arctic full night for 4 months. Then, in the spring it will start where it left off in October. By this summer the fires will have been rampant and crops failing. It looks like exponential heat at +6*C 2028.7 (thanks to Dr. Malcolm Light, Dr. Guy McPherson, and Dr. Paul Beckwith). +12*C 2035, and slowing with 100% humidity and 200,000 foot thick clouds, to thermal max +14*C over pre-industrial by 2080. 100,0000 years of gradual cool down, and 5 million years for re-evolution of surface life. It may be possible to stop it within two years with something like this https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/uturun ... lcano.html

This spring will herald a new era of people actually experiencing many more negative effects of abrupt heat gain induced by human overpopulation's demands. From CO2 +>1.5*C global, + 5*C Arctic. The Arctic is in heat anomalies of 7-12*C right now, and CONUS is +8*C in places, Canada, too. The food prices will climb abruptly next year's northern hemisphere fall. It will continue to few crops at all by only 2024. The +6* point is considered extinction of surface life except for extremophiles. Faster and bigger than any other ELE in Earth geologic history. Thanks to deniers and ignorance, lust and greed.
No one is complaining yet. Except where fires are going on right now.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:20 pm 
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World sea ice is continuing collapse. Arctic methane is releasing steadily.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/1 ... -to-do-now

"Temperatures have been only a few degrees above freezing when -25C should be expected"
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... scientists

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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2017 9:22 am 
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Here is an interesting article from a while ago; http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/~karin/1 ... drates.pdf

The methane map from the beginning of the month showed a real slowdown in methane releases. This is something I am watching. If methane was in runaway, this probably would not happen. I was expecting an increase with the sun hitting up there. If it has gone to lower another month, then I can say we are not yet in methane runaway from the open ocean runaway in the Arctic that does indeed exist. It is a large kinetic release that could start it all at any time, that we look for, maybe this fall or next, I hope, the longer the better. There are those who seem like they would like it to be in a faster runaway than it is. This is a geologic event and trying to translate it to human lifespan times is very difficult. Many think the clathrate gun has gone off, but I don't. When it does go off, we have 4 years left on the surface. IMEO.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:45 pm 
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http://xwer.de/en/methane-news-shakhova-and-semiletov

that is scientific, but this is journalism; "The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think."
By David Wallace-Wells
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... umans.html

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:11 am 
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http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings ... h4.075.gif

The clathrate gun hypothesis is the theory that rises in ocean temperature can trigger the sudden release of methane from the methane hydrates buried in seabeds and permafrost. Because methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, these releases would lead to feedbacks – further temperature rise and further methane clathrate destabilization – in effect initiating a runaway process as irreversible, once started, as the firing of a gun.In its original form, the hypothesis proposed that the “clathrate gun” could cause abrupt runaway warming in a timescale less than a human lifetime.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:30 am 
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https://news.sky.com/story/warning-to-h ... e-11125208

Warning to Humanity: 15,000 scientists say damage irreversible


2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

2017 http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings ... h4.079.gif

In three years from yellow to red and pink.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:01 pm 
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“Clive Hamilton is an Australian public intellectual who’s written books about global warming, among them: Requiem for a Species and Defiant Earth. His books were intended to enlighten the public. But as he says: “anyone who engages publicly in the climate change debate has been subject to threats and abuse from a global army of climate science deniers. There are a lot of disturbed, angry people out there, which is, of course, socially worrying.”
In the embed link and podcast Are We F–ked? Decoding the Resistance to Climate Change Clive Hamilton discusses the phenomenon of climate scientists saying one thing in public and another in private. I urge you to listen to the podcast embedded above.
Here’s a teaser; “No one wanted to pay attention to the implications of a world four degrees warmer… It’s too horrendous to think about. And no one talked about it. Then a few scientists said let’s have a conference and actually talk about it. They held this conference in Oxford and I went along. As the conference started, there was a kind of suppressed emotional intensity, except in the coffee breaks. It was then that I would buttonhole a couple of scientists and say: ‘Well, you know we’re speculating about this. But what do you really think is the situation?’ And one of them just looked at me and said: ‘We’re f–ked.'” — Clive Hamilton. Remember the flack Dr Jason Box received for his famous Tweet? “If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we’re f’d.”
“Oil giants Shell and BP are planning for global temperatures to rise as much as 5°C by the middle of the century. The level is more than double the upper limit committed to by most countries in the world under the Paris Climate Agreement, which both companies publicly support.” At the edge of extinction only lies remain
BP and Shell planning for catastrophic 5 degrees C Global Warming despite publicly backing Paris climate agreement" https://kevinhester.live/2017/11/23/we- ... y-thought/

I remember not that long ago when the tipping point was closer to +1.7*C from pre-industrial. It was always between +1.5 and just under +2*C. Then people started using 1850 instead of 1700 or even 1750 as the start of the industrial age. Some are using absurd later span averages, too. It was part of the error parameters to think it was +1.5*C global since pre-industrial, and +5*C Artcic, plus or minus .2*C. The present increase from actual pre-indistrial is past the error protocol. It was established from studies of the PETM, and the rate of thermal gain is going way past that period. It is bad enough the way it is, let alone to be in a runaway to something worse than the PETM. Beam me up, Scotty!!!

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:08 am 
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The clathrate guns are going off, heading toward the clathrate cannons. Look at all the pink over ESAS and the Kara Sea........
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings ... h4.074.gif

Too many in denial for too long, with too many people in the world for far too long, breeding like yeast more than actual intelligent beings. I joined here in 2005, and it was already too late. Groups of mad young people thinking that overpopulation is still OK (like with the immigrant overbreeder groups) and wanting to "fight" "climate change", by having the government do it all for them. They never wanted to sacrifice like I did and others did. They never wanted to do the brutal labor or coordination and heavy
calculations to build their own solar ecologically correct housing and business buildings. They wanted everyone to be perfect vegans like them, but without having no kids, without being all solar, and without all the travel in cars and jets. They wanted to forget that plants have feelings, too. The bulk just wanted business as usual until all the fossil fuels are burned up, then use nuclear, and level off at 12 billion or some such nonsense.
Some wanted to end all industrialization and go back to farming in villages, when even that has a numbers limit that has been exceeded. Religions, cultures, and the kill cult, have all been extremely negative influences in increasing numbers. Increasing numbers of people, of money, of converts, of chemicals, of plastics, of pipelines, and weapons that never killed enough to make much of a dent in the upward climb. The dumbing down has been disgusting to me, along with the greed. The high hopes of Earth Day One followed by the utter selfishness of the whiners who didn't really want to reduce anything.
Out of PC they allowed the dumbing down of our schools, the lowering of requirements for those groups who just were too stupid, and with it lower income. Bringing down a greater and greater percentage of those who were smart and qualified, but not in their clique of whatever. Finally, the debt far past the annual gross national product, and the debt to nature far higher.
Instead of increasing intolerance and decreasing compassion for the ecologically stupid, we get most emphasis on the 1.5% who are weirdos, or the quarter who turn women into second class citizens, and very little on those in a small minority living green in all ways. As ignorant as a herd of cows chewing their cud, or a wad of yeast poisoning themselves with their own wastes. Not realizing they are destroying an entire planetary biosphere for millions of years, and not even caring.
The clathrate guns firing, and killing the worthy along with the unworthy, the good few with the bad majority. I pray for Divine Intervention to kill off the bad majority, replenish and clean the Earth, so that most species live, and the humans left are in harmony and understanding of their gift from God. https://lenbilen.files.wordpress.com/20 ... =660&h=495



http://www.killerinourmidst.com/

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 7:21 pm 
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from the link above :
"We are certainly on the verge of releasing a huge amount of permafrost and seafloor methane within a very short time; we may also be on the brink of methane catastrophe. By our own actions -- by our continuing and increasing use of carbon fuels -- we are slowly but inexorably creating the conditions during which a such a methane release, catastrophic or more gradual, could occur. We probably have time to prevent a catastrophe, but there is a certain non-negligible possibility that we have already crossed -- or will shortly cross -- an invisible threshold that will render a methane catastrophe inevitable and unstoppable.

Major anthropogenic global warming by carbon dioxide and possible methane catastrophe will be events more cataclysmic than any that can befall Earth, except for an impact with a giant asteroid or comet, or a stellar explosion in our neighborhood of the Milky Way. These other events, however, are quite rare and unlikely in our immediate future.

Major anthropogenic global warming by carbon dioxide and possible methane catastrophe, by contrast, are highly likely and much more immediate. More importantly, unlike those other possible cataclysms, both are preventable -- probably -- if we take them seriously, begin to understand them, and -- most difficult of all -- begin to take steps to avert them.

It has become fashionable to dismiss predictions of catastrophe, partly because they have become so common. Many of us have become jaded, what with one such prediction after another. We used to hear a good deal about nuclear holocaust, or nuclear winter, but as those threats seem to have faded in the public consciousness, there are others which have replaced it. We now hear of doomsday asteroids, the ozone hole, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), bird flu, global warming, and the obliteration of species. The number of threats seems to be increasing.

And, actually, that number is increasing."
The latest shows a zero ice condition in the Arctic will be reached 2022. At or before that time there will be insufficient coldness to stop the rapid self release of the first 50 billion tons of methane from ESAS, as per the team of Dr. Shakhova. That is when the methane apocalypse starts. Navies of the world are up there waiting to ignite it so it is 1/4 the warming potential. However there is 1500GTs of it up there just in clathrates. Perhaps, ignorance is bliss.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-metha ... re/5638298

The Methane Time Bomb and the Future of the Biosphere
By Dr. Andrew Glikson
Global Research, April 29, 2018

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PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:13 am 
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https://www.sciencealert.com/massive-un ... any-moment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILahdcT7Usw

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2018 1:18 pm 
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https://jembendell.wordpress.com/2018/0 ... -read-yet/
The study on collapse they thought you should not read – yet
Posted by jembendell on July 26, 2018
A research paper concluding that climate-induced collapse is now inevitable, was recently rejected by anonymous reviewers of an academic journal.
It has been released directly by the Professor who wrote it, to promote discussion of the necessary deep adaptation to climate chaos.
“I am releasing this paper immediately, directly, because I can’t wait any longer in exploring how to learn the implications of the social collapse we now face,” explained the author Dr Bendell, a full Professor of Sustainability Leadership.

"a secondary review of research now indicates near term social collapse". "it is time we consider the implications of it being too late to avert a global environmental catastrophe in the lifetimes of people alive today. " "The warming of the Arctic reached wider public awareness as it has begun destabilizing winds in the higher atmosphere, specifically the jet stream and the northern polar vortex, leading to extreme movements of warmer air north in to the Arctic and cold air to the south. At one point in early 2018, temperature recordings from the Arctic were 20 degrees Celsius above the average for that date." "the current (CO2 sequestration) technology needs to be scaled by a factor of 2 million times within 2 years, all powered by renewables, alongside massive emission cuts, to reduce the amount of heating already locked into the system." "Clearly a massive campaign and policy agenda to transform agriculture and restore ecosystems globally is needed right now. It will be a huge undertaking, undoing 60 years of developments in world agriculture." "In 2010 a group of scientists published a study that warned how the warming of the Arctic could lead to a speed and scale of methane release that would be catastrophic to life on earth through atmospheric heating of over 5 degrees within just a few years of such a release." " Data published by scientists from the Arctic News (2018) website indicates that in March 2018 at mid altitudes, methane was around 1865 parts per billion (ppb), which represents a 1.8 percent increase of 35 ppb from the same time in 2017, while surface measurements of methane increased by about 15 ppb in that time. Both figures are consistent with a non-linear increase - potentially exponential - in atmospheric levels since 2007." "The truly shocking information on the trends in climate change and its impacts on ecology and society are leading some to call for us to experiment with geoengineering the climate, from fertilizing the oceans so they photosynthesize more CO2, to releasing chemicals in the upper atmosphere so the Sun’s rays are reflected." "when I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean in your own life. With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbors for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death." "strategic denial to maintain striving and identity is easily seen in online debates about the latest climate science." "valid and useful hope is something that we must explore." "In pursuit of a conceptual map of “deep adaptation,” we can conceive of resilience of human societies as the capacity to adapt to changing circumstances so as to survive with valued norms and behaviors."

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:45 pm 
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The fires and thermal anomalies this year keep us on track for Blue Ocean Event 2024 and latent heat charts indicate +1*F more at 50 meters deep at that time, seeing it has already been open over the ESAS two seasons (2019 and 20). Then abrupt heat gain hits with methane runaway. Unless a Toba type event or its equivalent happens. People are generally ignorant of the science and math, and thus you still have denialists.
We have people denying the greenhouse effect, denying the overpopulation that caused hghg pollution more than a hundred times what the Earth can process, then environmentalists who deny the methane clathrates in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, giving "hopium" of a solution that is not a mass die off followed by an ELE for planetary life, probably worse than the Permian Great Dying.
Many give up with all the nuclear power plants that will poison the biosphere to add as a coup de grace for most life. >>They could be safely shut down in two weeks, and the waste and leftover fuel brought up into a safe area to be used for Gen 4 modular, for use with 100K CO2 to carbonate factories built by 80 million selected survivors who can last underground during the long winter needed to cool the oceans and stop ESAS and permafrost methane runaway. Others would have to build and operate existing tree planting drones, along with other vegetation. Still others would be involved in building and operating thousands of OMTEC units at sea to refrigerate ocean water and run a CO2 capture and freeze operation, plus plankton fertilization. 150 years until below 350ppm CO2, and most life keeps on, trees out of dormancy after the 11 year winter, 20 years supply of food in the underground cities and fortresses, along with as many animal species , plants and seeds, as possible. There is a time limit of when the buried nukes of sufficient depth and quantity to mimic Toba in two lifts 5.5 years apart, can stop methane runaway. The cooling potential of a super volcano, is in a race with the runaway potential of double that. 2025 would be the latest this could be done with a reasonable amount of success. The survivors certainly must be the best to do the work necessary, and of the right age and intelligence prefabbing and schooling during the 11 year winter underground. Thousands of these facilities are stocked an substantially ready. Of course and new way of thinking, a new morality of restoration, replenishment and long term sustainability.<<< (solution between arrows)
I have seen denialists still blaming the sun, or greedy capitalism. Still calling it "natural".
The hardest cases are the kids who never should have been born, swinging their fists at air, with only partial understanding of CAGW, but knowing it means their premature deaths.
Some think it will be die-off 2026, and most agree the early to mid 2030s will end most surface life. Millions of years for even beginning recovery. For years I have heard the cries of kids that may never get to live, echoing down the hallways of time. A bottleneck is better than a major ELE. I think praying for God's Intervention could help. [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< [-o< O:) :mrgreen: =D> :clap:

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:43 pm 
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The clathrate gun;
Methane clathrate is a matrix of ice crystals holding in methane hydrate which boils at minus 200*C. It also was formed under pressure at 700m deep. It is more stable with depth and lower temperature. At 50m deep it will have ice cage collapse at 34*F (2.1*C). It also takes +4 psi of pressure to collapse the ice cages, which can be by a shock of nearby rapid release, or a seaquake.
So once one large section goes it tends to go into a chain reaction explosive release of billions of tons.
It is presently at 33.4*F, after two seasons of open ocean latent heat gain from solar radiation. Once it is within about 1.5*F of its rapid expansion point it goes into out layer slow release mode. Once the temperature or shock reach the described points of ice cage failure it expands 164 times in volume as methane gas to the atmosphere. It is ignited by frictional flint sand in tundra blowouts, and navies are ready to try to ignite some of it as it geysers out of the water in the ESAS, especially Kara Sea area. Most goes up as a greenhouse gas 160 times the CO2. The added CH4 and CO2 warms the Arctic more, and deeper, setting off more massive releases, and on and on to thermal max.


The "methane veil" goes south to the pole over a period of 18 months, and global air surface temperature goes up at .5*F and accelerating to 2*F per year, with humidity going up 7.8% per 2*F until 100% humidity and global cloud cover with methane releases going directly to storm water and CO2 increase. The abyssal cold depths finally cool it all down along with the clouds reflecting solar thermal gain. Anaerobic bacteria let off SO2 and continual acid raid storms wipe off organic material. When the clouds open up in 100K years or so, cyanobacteria take over and restore the atmospheric O2 over several million years while life re-evolves from extremophiles, tardigrades, bacteria and thermal vent life.
The amount of CH4 is 19K GTs globally and release of 900 will cause thermal maximum of about +19*F. The CO2 is eventually sequestered in cold clathrates again, and into carbonate rocks and mineral deposits. Of course, it is also sequestered in new life forms. It took 50 million years to recover from the Permian Great Dying, and this time will take even longer, with the glacial cycles still in play.
Human overbreeding, stupidity, and greed are the root causes of this methane catastrophe.

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“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:27 pm 
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Location: Central Colorado
Turn green not left or right, with practical knowledge and not the hopium of ignorance.
To conserve natural resources requires using them at a rate at or below regeneration, recharge, and replenishment. With the soils and aquifers it would need to be 100 times less, and less than that to allow the recharge of aquifers and the natural rebuilding of soils. Fossil fuels have been used at 50,000 times their natural regeneration rate, so to allow regeneration would require using them more than 50,000 times less. Then there is the absorption and processing rates of various pollution. The CO2 has gone up at 30 times the planetary ability to process with the world's plants and the number of trees that naturally kept the atmosphere have more than half been cut down, so not only would the trees need to be planted, 3 trillion of them, but time to remove the CO2 with no more emissions or very low. 100,000 CO2 to carbonate factories would need to help, and even then it would take over a hundred years. The biggest one is the increased CO2 has caused the world's oceans to add heat of more than 6 billion Hiroshima size atom bombs that is presently melting the sea ice cover, with 6 atom bombs per second as present heat rise. In another 2 to 5 years, then the latent heat effect will cause 1400 GTs of methane hydrate on shallow continental shelves to go into massive releases going exponential, with the CO2e of 100 for the first year, and then the release of 10K methane swellings in the permafrost containing another 1050 GTs of CH4. As the heat trapping goes south, the global temperature increases at a rate of 1*F per year. then faster. The rise from just CO2 is 4*F since 1750 pre-industrial with half masked by soots of combustion. Crop plants quit growing with another 3*F of rise and species extinction skyrockets with another 4*F. As the temperature goes up toward a thermal max from 100% global humidity and total 100,000' thick cloud cover stops solar heat gain, at +23*F from preindustrial temperature. Half way up most surface life goes extinct except for some bacteria and tardigrades. The oceans take more time and thermal vent life stays on and SO2 producing bacteria thrive in many shoreline areas causing acid rain. Deep underground extremophiles also live on and seed the evolution of surface life again after several million years. The initial cool down of a storm ridden planet takes over 100K years and people living in the many underground fortresses die off one by one as supplies run out or power systems fail. Then there is the problem of the nuclear waste and power plants and bombs, which would need to be made safe away from new shorelines and needed to power the waste using Gen 4 power to build 100K CO2 removal factories, drone factories to replant trees and OMTEC refrigeration units to keep the oceans cool enough to prevent uncovering the methane clathrate deposits after an 11 year global winter event from either a super volcano, or man made with 1,250 MGTs of buried nukes. That is the best case scenario, a Toba style bottleneck rather than the extinction of 99% of life because of human gross overpopulation's demands. The survivors would need to be strong and smart and adopt a new morality and spirituality of replenish the Earth on page one of the Old Testament skipped over by so many for so long. There is enough for about 80 million underground that could last the 11 years while many species are dormant. One glacial cycle would be skipped. If too much cooling is done, then the glacial cycle due, begins. Not enough, and the melting comes back and releases the methane, and the Permian style end continues. The chances of stopping the progression of the MT Event without an added radiation event of long term, is not good. Humanity has a history of doing too little, too late. Those with incomplete knowledge, and hopium, think it will be as easy as everyone switching to green power and practices without massive population decline. They protest and want everything done for them without the severe sacrifices, hard work and intelligence needed. The things they want should have happened Earth Day One, and most protesting kids should never have been born. The greed should have ended back then, and the heat gain and momentum still left would not have happened. Now mass death is inevitable, and extinction of most life probable, unless there is a Toba Event with attendant preparation and post event efforts of several hundred years.

_________________
"With every decision, think seven generations ahead of the consequences of your actions" Ute rule of life.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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