Global temperature rise still headed for devastating 2.6°c despite climate promises, new reports warn

The world remains dangerously off course in the fight against climate change, with global temperatures still projected to rise by a catastrophic 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to two major climate reports released ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.

The sobering assessment from the Climate Action Tracker reveals that despite four consecutive years of international climate negotiations and pledges, national governments have failed to deliver the ambitious emission reduction plans needed to prevent deadly global heating. Even more alarming, fossil fuel emissions have reached an all-time high, directly contradicting the urgent need to rapidly decrease carbon pollution.

This temperature increase would far exceed the 1.5°C limit established in the Paris Climate Agreement—a threshold scientists warn is critical to avoiding the most severe climate impacts. A 2.6°C rise would likely trigger widespread ecosystem collapse, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and massive displacement of human populations, particularly affecting the world’s most vulnerable communities.

The findings underscore a stark disconnect between the climate rhetoric from world leaders and the actual policies being implemented. As delegates prepare for COP30, the reports serve as a wake-up call that current national commitments fall woefully short of what’s required to safeguard the planet’s future. Without dramatically stronger action and genuine commitment to phasing out fossil fuels, the window for limiting global warming to manageable levels continues to rapidly close, leaving future generations to face increasingly severe climate consequences.