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EnviroLink Forum • View topic - Depletion of Key Resources

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:56 pm 
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I got sent this as part of the group at Wiser Earth. "Depletion of Key Resources" --an essay by Peter Goodchild, the author of a new book,, soon available "The Coming Chaos".
Certainly stuff I have talked about for a long time, and quite interesting.

http://www.wiserearth.org/article/e03d1 ... c7a398cdfd
Here is another:
"By Peter Goodchild

30 August, 2011
Countercurrents.org

A time frame for systemic collapse can be extrapolated easily from the on-line document The Coming Chaos, an abridgement of a larger text (see link below). The most significant page is at the start of the text, the chart of estimated past and future oil production. Most of the other time frames will parallel that curve. Then one can look at the chapter on electricity, which as Richard Duncan says will be the first really distinct, “on-off” type of indicator. The next parallel can be found in the chapter on economics, which mentions two "phases," divided by the point at which money as such is no longer an important means of exchange; past examples occurred with the crash of the USSR, and in Weimar Germany.

In the chapter on famine, the fall of population appears as a parallel to the fall in fossil fuels. Some critics have said that the two do not necessarily go together -- or, rather, “fall” together. But they do, for a very simple mathematical reason. Fossil fuels are the source of more than 90 percent of the energy -- in the strict "physics" sense of the word -- in modern industrial society. If we take away 90 percent of the energy, we necessarily take away 90 percent of the population. (If we take away 100 percent of the energy, we necessarily take away 100 percent of the population.) No, we cannot replace that 90 percent with some "alternative" form of energy, as is explained in chapter one, because there isn't enough of any “alternative” to make much difference.

The same first chapter also illustrates why a voluntary reduction in population cannot work. (For that matter, neither would a mandatory reduction in population, and for the same reason.) Again, it's simple arithmetic. Oil production will fall, over the next few decades, by about 3 percent annually, and if instead we say 2 percent or 4 percent the final result isn't much different. But even if every woman on earth stopped having children from this day forward, there would still not be a 3 or 2 or 4 percent annual reduction in population.

It can be seen, therefore, that the curve of estimated past and future global oil production is not merely one of a myriad of problems with which mankind will have to deal. It is the time scale with which most other problems can be measured, and it is the cause of most other problems.

But if anyone really needs a magic number, a good choice would be 2030. That's the date at which, with a 3 percent annual decline in oil production, the year's production will be half of that in the peak year. And half of peak oil means half of everything else in human society. A very important “half” will be population, because the other half will have died of famine. And that's the one item that very few people can mentally assimilate."

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Last edited by Johhny Electriglide on Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 6:08 pm 
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"transition towns"... it is laughable when you first think about it... a global melt-down of resource availability means there is nothing to "transition" from. I do however have a plan I am seeking to get going eventually... a franchise to make cooperatives to manage energy and food self-sufficient housing arrangements. The franchise structure is just to make it financially easy to do


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 6:41 pm 
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Curious, Ann. But it just might be the way to do it.
Will people wanting to be part of such communities have to 'buy-in'/ invest to be able to live-therein?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 25, 2010 10:56 pm 
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 12:50 am 
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In a sci-fi setting; could you use such a system to start up, say: a colony?

You can probably guess why I ask O:)


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2010 11:54 am 
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:49 pm 
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:23 am 
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Cant they just plant more trees?


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 Post subject: Key Resources
PostPosted: Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:28 am 
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yes.. the choice depends on individuals.. both are pretty good products..

[url=http://www.thebodyholiday.com/menu_experience/yoga4relax.php]Yoga retreat[url]
[url=http://www.capmaison.com/index.html]St  Lucia hotel[url]


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:03 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 4:24 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 8:12 pm 
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Sad to say not everyone is in favor of that. Not even those larger numbers of people and I think it has to do with their beliefs. This will be an issue that needs to be address.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2011 2:13 pm 
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“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:09 pm 
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Here is a good link to the Peter Goodchild article on Peak Oil and population;
http://www.populationmedia.org/2011/02/ ... opulation/

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:26 pm 
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From the original article:
Grain


Annual world production of grain per capita peaked in 1984 at 342 kg [8]. For years production has not met demand, so carryover stocks must fill the gap, now leaving less than 2 months’ supply as a buffer. Rising temperatures and falling water tables are causing havoc in grain harvests everywhere, but the biggest dent is caused by the bio-fuel industry, which is growing at over 20 percent per year. In 2007, 88 million tons of US corn, a quarter of the entire US harvest, was turned into automotive fuel.



Water


The production rate of fresh water is declining everywhere. According to the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 4, “by 2025, about 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world population could be under conditions of water stress ― the threshold for meeting the water requirements for agriculture, industry, domestic purposes, energy and the environment. . . .” [25]



Arable Land


With “low technology,” i.e. technology that does not use fossil fuels, crop yields diminish considerably. The production of so-called field or grain corn (maize) without irrigation or mechanized agriculture is only about 2,000 kilograms per hectare (10,000 m2), about a third of the yield that a farmer would get with modern machinery and chemical fertilizer [19, 20]

Actually, in another book on agriculture and soil science, it was stated that irrigation gives 6 times the yields. Another said that global warming will cause fluctuation which will cause crop failures 1/3 of the time. So increasing population, AGW, post peak oil, and aquifer/water loss will have a very profound effect as time goes on.
I have a 1979 Atlas book. Interesting, India's population was less than half of what it is now and they still have 2.6 children per woman!!! They have nearly all their northern aquifers at near depletion, and most of their river water is filled with fecal contamination.
I wonder how long they have, and if they will be the first country to crash.

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“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children”― Chief Seattle
“Those Who Have the Privilege to Know Have the Duty to Act”…Albert Einstein


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