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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:51 am 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

Not for the question at hand, which is whether we cqan mitigate our impcat on the climate in time or not.


Only in the fringes of the scientific community and not in the areas in which the majority of the experts reside.


I have posted many peer reviewed papers on the other thread questioning that most of the warming is due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

And there is no observational evidence that GHGs are responsible for most of the warming seen.


I might point out that if the same criteria were applied to the other potential forcings for the observed warming trend there would be no observational evidence that any forcing is responsible for most of the warming either individually or combined.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:59 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:

I might point out that if the same criteria were applied to the other potential forcings for the observed warming trend there would be no observational evidence that any forcing is responsible for most of the warming either individually or combined.


Unfortunately for the CO2 hypothesis , there is observational evidence for a solar driver. There is no evidence for a CO2 driver on any scale.

There is evidence that the sun was the driver of the past climate changes in the late Holocene:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2 ... 2184.shtml

http://fossil.earthsci.carleton.ca/~tpa ... 23-140.pdf

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL050720.pdf

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 821200096X

There is also large amounts of evidence that the sun's activity is highly correlated to temperatures and is highly correlated to the temperature trend changes.

If one adopts the sun hypothesis, a second mechanism (aerosol cooling) will not be needed to explain the cooling in the mid 20th Century. Aerosoles (which were again brought up by AGW Advocates) would also not be needed to explain the early 21st century lull/slight cooling.

http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MSAIt760405 ... ..969G.pdf

Image

Solar activity can explain almost all of the warming, and explain the change to cooling in the mid 20th Century.

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley ... Cliver.pdf

Image

Up to all of the warming observed up to the early to mid 1990s (according to Cliver et. al) can be attributed to the sun. Keep in mind that this study is an older study, which is why the data ends earlier than the 2000s.

In recent years, (post 1975) solar activity is significantly correlated to the temperature in the mid latitudes, suggesting a sun-climate relationship.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 2610003056

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 7600000026

Long term solar activity changes can be responsible for an increase in temperatures as a whole over the 20th Century,

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 2610004050

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 7707001925

http://www.academicjournals.org/IJPS/PD ... hoyaib.pdf

Geomagnetic Activity changes from the sun influence ENSO and the NAO:

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.n ... 3-2002.pdf

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2 ... 5822.shtml

The sun also signficantly influences Ozone, which is seen in this graph:

http://www.sotere.uni-osnabrueck.de/spa ... versal.pdf

Note that the ozone depletion observed during the great geomagnetic storm of 1989 (strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded) correlates strongly to the amount of NOx produced by the solar storms.

Image

Image

The reason why the ozone depletion has mainly been occuring at the poles is a result of the Earth's Magnetic Field:

Image

The high energy protons can enter the north and south poles because of the "cusps" in the Earth's Magnetic Field.

The Earth's Magnetic Field has been gradually getting weaker, which, combined with an active sun has led to ozone depletion at both of the poles, but most noticeably in the south pole.

Image

Earth's Magnetic Field over the last 150 years. Note the general decline in the intensity of the magnetic field over the last 150 years.

Source: http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/reversals.html

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2 ... 8574.shtml

“With decreasing magnetic field strength the impacts on the ozone are found to significantly increase especially in the Southern Hemisphere”.

http://www.sotere.uni-osnabrueck.de/spa ... versal.pdf

The following figure presents a correlation between Ozone and NOx. Note the high correspondance between the NOx produced during solar proton storms, and the amount of ozone depleted.

Image

There is even more evidence than this, and this can be considered to be a handful for all of the papers out there and all of the evidence out there that supports a solar driver of climate change.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 4:01 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

I might point out that if the same criteria were applied to the other potential forcings for the observed warming trend there would be no observational evidence that any forcing is responsible for most of the warming either individually or combined.


Unfortunately for the CO2 hypothesis , there is observational evidence for a solar driver. There is no evidence for a CO2 driver on any scale.

There is evidence that the sun was the driver of the past climate changes in the late Holocene:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2 ... 2184.shtml

http://fossil.earthsci.carleton.ca/~tpa ... 23-140.pdf

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL050720.pdf

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 821200096X

There is also large amounts of evidence that the sun's activity is highly correlated to temperatures and is highly correlated to the temperature trend changes.

If one adopts the sun hypothesis, a second mechanism (aerosol cooling) will not be needed to explain the cooling in the mid 20th Century. Aerosoles (which were again brought up by AGW Advocates) would also not be needed to explain the early 21st century lull/slight cooling.

http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MSAIt760405 ... ..969G.pdf

Image

Solar activity can explain almost all of the warming, and explain the change to cooling in the mid 20th Century.

http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley ... Cliver.pdf

Image

Up to all of the warming observed up to the early to mid 1990s (according to Cliver et. al) can be attributed to the sun. Keep in mind that this study is an older study, which is why the data ends earlier than the 2000s.

In recent years, (post 1975) solar activity is significantly correlated to the temperature in the mid latitudes, suggesting a sun-climate relationship.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 2610003056

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 7600000026

Long term solar activity changes can be responsible for an increase in temperatures as a whole over the 20th Century,

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 2610004050

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 7707001925

http://www.academicjournals.org/IJPS/PD ... hoyaib.pdf

Geomagnetic Activity changes from the sun influence ENSO and the NAO:

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.n ... 3-2002.pdf

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2 ... 5822.shtml

The sun also signficantly influences Ozone, which is seen in this graph:

http://www.sotere.uni-osnabrueck.de/spa ... versal.pdf

Note that the ozone depletion observed during the great geomagnetic storm of 1989 (strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded) correlates strongly to the amount of NOx produced by the solar storms.

Image

Image

The reason why the ozone depletion has mainly been occuring at the poles is a result of the Earth's Magnetic Field:

Image

The high energy protons can enter the north and south poles because of the "cusps" in the Earth's Magnetic Field.

The Earth's Magnetic Field has been gradually getting weaker, which, combined with an active sun has led to ozone depletion at both of the poles, but most noticeably in the south pole.

Image

Earth's Magnetic Field over the last 150 years. Note the general decline in the intensity of the magnetic field over the last 150 years.

Source: http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/reversals.html

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2 ... 8574.shtml

“With decreasing magnetic field strength the impacts on the ozone are found to significantly increase especially in the Southern Hemisphere”.

http://www.sotere.uni-osnabrueck.de/spa ... versal.pdf

The following figure presents a correlation between Ozone and NOx. Note the high correspondance between the NOx produced during solar proton storms, and the amount of ozone depleted.

Image

There is even more evidence than this, and this can be considered to be a handful for all of the papers out there and all of the evidence out there that supports a solar driver of climate change.


No, you have confused evidence of correlation with evidence of causation, which is incorrect. There is measured correlation of temperature and CO2 increases which I assume you have written off as not being evidence for whatever reason, but forgo the same criteria when it comes to the hypothesis you like.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:15 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:
No, you have confused evidence of correlation with evidence of causation, which is incorrect. There is measured correlation of temperature and CO2 increases which I assume you have written off as not being evidence for whatever reason, but forgo the same criteria when it comes to the hypothesis you like.


The correlation coefficient is MUCH smaller with CO2 and Temperature because CO2 and temperature are disconnected during the mid century cooling, the early 21st Century Warming, and the fact that temperatures increased at roughly the same rate in the early 20th Century as the late-20th Century, when the increase in CO2 concentration was different for both timeframes.

What caused the mid century cooling/flatlining? Why does solar activity changes match with all three periods of temperature change in the 20th Century?

The fact that little to no warming has been observed at 250-300 hPa, when the IPCC models with the GHG forcing said that this area should be warming the fastest is an automatic red flag. It is consistent with the increased solar activity creating cooling in this area with the depletion of ozone due to solar storms.

That is why a solar explaination makes more sense.

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Last edited by Snowy123 on Thu May 31, 2012 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:25 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:

The papers can question all you like, but the evidence is pretty sparse to support their views.
How many papers do you suppose question those conclusions? :mrgreen:


The majority of peer reviewed publications are probably on your side, but it is probably split more like 60:40 AGW. A lot of it has to do with what Professor Edward J. Wegman exposed in his report that many AGW scientists are in this social network to peer review each other's work so that they can get published instantly.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 6:45 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:
No, you have confused evidence of correlation with evidence of causation, which is incorrect. There is measured correlation of temperature and CO2 increases which I assume you have written off as not being evidence for whatever reason, but forgo the same criteria when it comes to the hypothesis you like.


The correlation coefficient is MUCH smaller with CO2 and Temperature because CO2 and temperature are disconnected during the mid century cooling, the early 21st Century Warming, and the fact that temperatures increased at roughly the same rate in the early 20th Century as the late-20th Century, when the increase in CO2 concentration was different for both timeframes.

What caused the mid century cooling/flatlining? Why does solar activity changes match with all three periods of temperature change in the 20th Century?

The fact that little to no warming has been observed at 250-300 hPa, when the IPCC models with the GHG forcing said that this area should be warming the fastest is an automatic red flag. It is consistent with the increased solar activity creating cooling in this area with the depletion of ozone due to solar storms.

That is why a solar explaination makes more sense.


Only if one assumes climate is a simple system rather than a complex one. Only a simple system will have a direct response to a single forcing. The problem is we know there are other impacts which then have to be ignored.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 6:50 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

The papers can question all you like, but the evidence is pretty sparse to support their views.
How many papers do you suppose question those conclusions? :mrgreen:


The majority of peer reviewed publications are probably on your side, but it is probably split more like 60:40 AGW. A lot of it has to do with what Professor Edward J. Wegman exposed in his report that many AGW scientists are in this social network to peer review each other's work so that they can get published instantly.


I don't know that using someone found guilty of ethical violations in publication would be such a good idea in this case, but it is not my call.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 6:53 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:

Only if one assumes climate is a simple system rather than a complex one. Only a simple system will have a direct response to a single forcing. The problem is we know there are other impacts which then have to be ignored.


Yes, of course there are other factors, and the climate system is VERY complex, but...

Are you claiming that aerosoles somehow caused cooling in the mid Century, then the GHG forcing overtook the aerosoles, and then the aerosol forcing took over again in the early 21st century?

I don't buy that argument.

I will repeat the rest of my prior post that you chose to not reply to:

What caused the mid century cooling/flatlining? Why does solar activity changes match with all three periods of temperature change in the 20th Century?

The fact that little to no warming has been observed at 250-300 hPa, when the IPCC models with the GHG forcing said that this area should be warming the fastest is an automatic red flag. It is consistent with the increased solar activity creating cooling in this area with the depletion of ozone due to solar storms.

That is why a solar explaination makes more sense.

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 7:12 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

Only if one assumes climate is a simple system rather than a complex one. Only a simple system will have a direct response to a single forcing. The problem is we know there are other impacts which then have to be ignored.


Yes, of course there are other factors, and the climate system is VERY complex, but...

Are you claiming that aerosoles somehow caused cooling in the mid Century, then the GHG forcing overtook the aerosoles, and then the aerosol forcing took over again in the early 21st century?

I don't buy that argument.

I will repeat the rest of my prior post that you chose to not reply to:

What caused the mid century cooling/flatlining? Why does solar activity changes match with all three periods of temperature change in the 20th Century?

The fact that little to no warming has been observed at 250-300 hPa, when the IPCC models with the GHG forcing said that this area should be warming the fastest is an automatic red flag. It is consistent with the increased solar activity creating cooling in this area with the depletion of ozone due to solar storms.

That is why a solar explaination makes more sense.



You do not have to buy anything, but I suggest following all of the evidence and not just that fringe to which you seem to be so attracted.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:49 am 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:


You do not have to buy anything, but I suggest following all of the evidence and not just that fringe to which you seem to be so attracted.


There is no evidence for CO2 being a "driver" on any timescale, at all.

So you don't have a reply to the italicized portion of my post that you quoted?

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 9:15 am 
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Snowy123 wrote:
There is no evidence for CO2 being a "driver" on any timescale, at all.


Sure there is. Your interpretation of the data is simply incorrect.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 11:26 am 
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Fosgate wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
There is no evidence for CO2 being a "driver" on any timescale, at all.


Sure there is. Your interpretation of the data is simply incorrect.


Beat me to it. #-o

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 1:12 pm 
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Snowy123 wrote:
Wayne Stollings wrote:

Only if one assumes climate is a simple system rather than a complex one. Only a simple system will have a direct response to a single forcing. The problem is we know there are other impacts which then have to be ignored.


Yes, of course there are other factors, and the climate system is VERY complex, but...

Are you claiming that aerosoles somehow caused cooling in the mid Century, then the GHG forcing overtook the aerosoles, and then the aerosol forcing took over again in the early 21st century?


It could be the case, especially since there was a move to reduce particulate and other emissions that would offset the GHG forcing.



Quote:
I will repeat the rest of my prior post that you chose to not reply to:

What caused the mid century cooling/flatlining?


The mid-century problem with emissions could be a significant factor.

Quote:
Why does solar activity changes match with all three periods of temperature change in the 20th Century?


If memory serves on one of your new favorite authors papers the correlation was tweaked to make the match up fit. Since there are no specific references I cannot get more specific than that.

Quote:
The fact that little to no warming has been observed at 250-300 hPa, when the IPCC models with the GHG forcing said that this area should be warming the fastest is an automatic red flag. It is consistent with the increased solar activity creating cooling in this area with the depletion of ozone due to solar storms.


Which "the" models would those be?

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 1:44 pm 
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Fosgate wrote:
Snowy123 wrote:
There is no evidence for CO2 being a "driver" on any timescale, at all.


Sure there is.


So where is it? :-

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 2:07 pm 
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Wayne Stollings wrote:

It could be the case, especially since there was a move to reduce particulate and other emissions that would offset the GHG forcing.


And it could also be the sun that was causing this lull, since it's activity was relatively constant during this timeframe.

We can keep on going in circles if you would like.

Quote:
The mid-century problem with emissions could be a significant factor.


And so could the sun, and you would not need to invoke another mechanism to explain this period.

Quote:
If memory serves on one of your new favorite authors papers the correlation was tweaked to make the match up fit.


Which paper?

Quote:
Which "the" models would those be?


The models the IPCC used in their report. This graphic shows the simulated forcings of TSI, Volcanism, Well mixed GHGs, ozone, aerosol and the sum of all of the forcings combined. Note that the Greenhouse Signature as PREDICTED by the models looks TOTALLY different than if it were forced by the sun.

Image

Quote:
Figure 9.1. Zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (°C per century) as simulated by the PCM model from (a) solar forcing, (b) volcanoes, © well-mixed greenhouse gases, (d) tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, (e) direct sulphate aerosol forcing and (f) the sum of all forcings. Plot is from 1,000 hPa to 10 hPa (shown on left scale) and from 0 km to 30 km (shown on right). See Appendix 9.C for additional information. Based on Santer et al. (2003a).


So the Greenhouse signature is UNIQUE according to this IPCC graphic, and we SHOULD see more warming occur in the mid to upper troposphere than at the surface.

Other models have the SAME exact signature for GHG warming, with an area in the mid to upper troposphere in the Tropics warming faster than everywhere else.

Image

Unfortunately for the GHG theory, temperatures in this area in the mid to upper troposphere in the Tropics have remained relatively constant as surface temepratures increased.

Image

This means GHGs are not the cause of the recent warming, since the Greenhouse signature portrayed in the IPCC models is not present in reality.

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