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EnviroLink Forum • View topic - Tree rings suggest 0.6C warmer Roman world

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 3:40 pm 
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http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... ought.html


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:45 pm 
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Posting a link without any other content in your post is called spam.


What do YOU think of all this.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:50 pm 
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I have always had problems with tree ring proxy studies. Temperature is only one indicator in tree growth. Many other factors contribute to the rate of growth. Light, water, soil conditions, altitude, absence or presents of insect pests or larger animals, etc. If a tree ring study says it was warmer or cooler in the past or present I am skeptical.

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From the article:
"Jan Esper of Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, Germany, thinks that at least some of those tree rings actually show something else: a long-term cooling trend that lasted right up until the Industrial Revolution. The trend came about because of reduced solar heating caused by changes to the Earth's orbit known as Milankovitch wobbles, says Esper. His results suggest the Roman world was 0.6 °C warmer than previously thought – enough to make grape vines in northern England a possibility.

Esper and his colleagues say that warmer summers do not necessarily make tree rings wider – but they often make them denser. He studied the density of tree rings in hundreds of northern Scandinavian trees and found that they showed evidence of a gradual cooling trend that began around 2000 years ago.

The finding fits with other proxies for temperature – such as the chemical make-up of air trapped in glaciers and the organic remains in ancient lake sediments – which have also suggested a cooling trend."
Anyone well versed in geology knows we are supposed to be cooling down, and northern hemisphere increase in snow/ice season, leading to higher albedo and then the ~90,000 year ice age. This cooling trend stopped when fossil fuels began to be burned in abundance. Since 1950 it has begun an upward hyperbolic zooming upward after 1980, then more after 2000.
The trend now is toward skipping this ice age entirely, unless Yellowstone super volcano, or another similar one, erupts and aerosols cool down the atmosphere ~10*F for an number of years. In just a few centuries even this will not reverse the warming trend toward AETM. From PETM studies, and the increase in sequestered carbon being released, this would eliminate probably two ice ages, and one interglacial----200K years until the carbon is re-sequestered, then another 2 or more million until biodiversity is returned.
Sure, the wine growing region is shifting north, but not many will be growing vines after the population crash of mid century. Then, in a few hundred years it will have shifted too far north, then off the planet. So, drink your wine and pretend it isn't happening-------while you can.
I wonder if those seeds stored on that Norwegian Island will be viable in 200K years, and if anyone will be around to open the locked door.

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