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 Post subject: Antarctic ice collapse
PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 6:32 pm 
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http://www.wral.com/nasa-spots-worrisom ... /13637804/

The huge West Antarctic ice sheet is starting a glacially slow collapse in an unstoppable way, two new studies show. Alarmed scientists say that means even more sea level rise than they figured.

The worrisome outcomes won't be seen soon. Scientists are talking hundreds of years, but over that time the melt that has started could eventually add 4 to 12 feet to current sea levels.

A NASA study looking at 40 years of ground, airplane and satellite data of what researchers call "the weak underbelly of West Antarctica" shows the melt is happening faster than scientists had predicted, crossing a critical threshold that has begun a domino-like process.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 12:58 pm 
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"Ice is melting in the western Antarctic at an unstoppable pace, scientists said Monday, warning that the discovery holds major consequences for global sea level rise in the coming decades.

The speedy melting means that prior calculations of sea level rise worldwide made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will have to be adjusted upwards, scientists told reporters.

"A large sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet has gone into a state of irreversible retreat. It has passed the point of no return," said Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California Irvine.

"The retreat of ice is unstoppable," he said, noting that surveys have shown there is no large hill at the back of these glaciers that could hold back the melting ice.

"This retreat will have major consequences for sea level rise worldwide," he added, anticipating the melting will take place largely in the next two centuries.

"It will raise sea level by 1.2 meters or four feet," said Rignot, whose paper appears in the peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union."
http://news.msn.com/world/west-antarcti ... =ansnews11
The thing is, sea level rise is the least of the problems of CAGW. :shock: 8-[ =;
If this is unstoppable, I wonder about the open Arctic ocean warming and the tundra methane to ocean methane self release points. I hope we have 9 years left to stop it by a 90% emissions reduction, we may not.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 5:24 pm 
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/22/n ... ce-extent/

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As the U.S. space agency NASA announced, the sea ice in the Antarctic has extended over an area of ​​19.47 million square meters at the end of September. That is the highest since measurements began in 1979.


Sorry but the truth looks like this.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/05/12/globa ... k-records/

Quote:
Someone let Al Gore know the South Pole isn’t melting. Antarctic sea ice coverage reached record levels for April, hitting 3.5 million square miles — the largest on record.

It was a cold summer down in Antarctica, with sea ice coverage growing about 43,500 square miles a day, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSDC). April 2014 beats the previous sea-ice coverage record from April 2008 by a whopping 124,000 square miles.

But even with autumn in full swing in the South Pole, “record levels continue to be set in early May,” reports the NSDC. Sea ice levels have been “significantly above” satellite data averages for 16 consecutive months.



From record highs since measurements began and in the blink of an eye to "irreversible collapse." :-k You Cultists just sound desperate. :lol: :crazy:

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 6:01 pm 
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Couldn't help but be a jack ass, huh?
Area and volume are not the same, idiot.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 6:09 pm 
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Sea ice floats on the water and does not affect sea level. It expands and contracts the area covered with the seasons. The glacial ice, which was the subject of the article, rests on land and does affect sea level. Glacial ice and sea ice are very different things. The lack of understandingb of even basic science is telling in the replies by Milton.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 6:32 pm 
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"The Antarctic wintertime ice extent increased...at a rate of 0.6 percent per decade from 1979-2006" - Donald Cavalieri, Senior Research Scientist, NASA

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-04-20/i ... ion=justin

Quote:
Ian Allison, head of the Australian Antarctic Division's ice, ocean, atmosphere and climate program, says outside of western Antarctica, ice levels are remaining steady or possibly increasing.

"Over most of Antarctica the surface temperatures are very well below the freezing point," he said.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1766064.stm

Quote:
New research has found that parts of the ice sheet that covers West Antarctica may be getting thicker, not thinner, as scientists have feared.


http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/sci ... lidww8dxbh

Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) — New measurements show the ice in West Antarctica is thickening, reversing some earlier estimates that the sheet was melting.


I understand you have to have your boogie man so you can sleep at night. It took thousands of years for that ice to form. Its going to take thousands of years for it to melt. Anyone suggesting otherwise demonstrates a serious lack of scientific understanding.

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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 10:38 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
"The Antarctic wintertime ice extent increased...at a rate of 0.6 percent per decade from 1979-2006" - Donald Cavalieri, Senior Research Scientist, NASA


Sea ice is the strawberries to which you are trying to compare to the apples of glacial ice. Unless and until you can begin to comprehned there is a huge difference you are just making yourself look very foolish.

Quote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-04-20/ice-cover-increasing-in-east-antarctica/1656192?section=justin

Quote:
Ian Allison, head of the Australian Antarctic Division's ice, ocean, atmosphere and climate program, says outside of western Antarctica, ice levels are remaining steady or possibly increasing.

"Over most of Antarctica the surface temperatures are very well below the freezing point," he said.


That would not be "SAYS" but the past tense, which is "SAID". It is over 5 years old and out of date, but you are stuck with nothing else to use.

Quote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1766064.stm

Quote:
New research has found that parts of the ice sheet that covers West Antarctica may be getting thicker, not thinner, as scientists have feared.


Now you have dropped back a dozen years, which is even more out of date.

Quote:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/science/cold-science/2002-01-18-wais-thicker.htm?AID=10709313&PID=3753210&SID=7llidww8dxbh

Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) — New measurements show the ice in West Antarctica is thickening, reversing some earlier estimates that the sheet was melting.


More ancient history presented as an vain attempt to refute the modern science.


Quote:
I understand you have to have your boogie man so you can sleep at night. It took thousands of years for that ice to form. Its going to take thousands of years for it to melt. Anyone suggesting otherwise demonstrates a serious lack of scientific understanding.


No, you illustrate a basic lack of understanding of physics as ice can melt at a faster rate than it freezes. Anyone who claims otherwise demonstrates a serious lack of truthfulness.

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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 2:41 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 3:44 pm 
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If pictures are all you can comprehend ....

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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 8:40 pm 
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OHHHHH things are getting a little testy around here. :clap: :clap: :clap:

The OP story sited was an Associated Press story talking about science that was recently released. Okay. Here is another link that comes to the same conclusion but is a little more elaborate.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014 ... collapsing

Quote:
One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse


This is Dr. Ian Joughin's study from the University of Washington. No empirical measurements. A computer model. Epic fail folks. The great majority of these computer models end up greatly exaggerating whatever it is these people are desperate to prove. GIGO.

The second study is done by Dr. Eric Rignot. What does he think of (and this was left out of the AP story) Dr. Joughin Study? Not much.

Quote:
Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and the lead author of the GRL radar mapping study, is skeptical of Joughin’s timeline because the computer model used estimates of future melting rates instead of calculations based on physical processes such as changing sea temperatures. “These simulations ought to go to the next stage and include realistic ocean forcing,” he says. If they do, he says, they might predict an even more rapid retreat.


Realistic ocean forcings? I wonder what that means? It is clearly left out of Joughin's study according to Dr. Rignot. Even though Rignot hopes for a more rapid retreat. That remark places him in an unpleasant light.

Now this story brings in a third scientist. Dr. Richard Alley a Penn State glaciologist.
Quote:
Antarctic history confirms the danger, Alley says: Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet, a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet to collapse. “The possibility that we have already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits centuries before arriving.”


Now this is interesting. No one has ever claimed ice has never melted at the south pole. No one. But, this glaciologist states that we will wait centuries before it arrives? My point exactly. It took thousands of years for this water to freeze, and its going to take thousands of years for it to melt.

This study was just release recently. Let's see how it stands up to the rigors of others in the scientific community. That is if the principle scientist is willing to share his data and methodology for others to review. Now Dr. Eric Rignot. Principle Scientist for Radar Science and Engineering Section for NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab is not a climatologist so I'm not sure why he's involved in any conclusion. He should be clearly involved for data gathering for how this study was done, but is not qualified to render any conclusion on climate. And, those here who latch onto a just release paper and claim it to be the gospel truth to fit their bias clearly don't understand how the scientific community works. The link in the OP is fear mongering, and over exaggeration. Keep that boogie man well fed boys. :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 11:27 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014 ... collapsing

Quote:
One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse


This is Dr. Ian Joughin's study from the University of Washington. No empirical measurements. A computer model. Epic fail folks. The great majority of these computer models end up greatly exaggerating whatever it is these people are desperate to prove. GIGO.


How do you have empirical measurements for the result of the glacier becoming ungrounded? The garbage in this seems to be your understanding of pretty much everything except your political agenda.

Quote:
The second study is done by Dr. Eric Rignot. What does he think of (and this was left out of the AP story) Dr. Joughin Study? Not much.

Quote:
Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and the lead author of the GRL radar mapping study, is skeptical of Joughin’s timeline because the computer model used estimates of future melting rates instead of calculations based on physical processes such as changing sea temperatures. “These simulations ought to go to the next stage and include realistic ocean forcing,” he says. If they do, he says, they might predict an even more rapid retreat.


Realistic ocean forcings? I wonder what that means?


You do not know, but you are willing to make unfounded assumptions? I believe the terms you are seeking are "less conservative estimates".

Quote:
It is clearly left out of Joughin's study according to Dr. Rignot.


Which would indicate the more conservative estimates.

Quote:
Even though Rignot hopes for a more rapid retreat. That remark places him in an unpleasant light.


Hopes? Not getting any transferal from your views are we?

Quote:
Now this story brings in a third scientist. Dr. Richard Alley a Penn State glaciologist.
Quote:
Antarctic history confirms the danger, Alley says: Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet, a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet to collapse. “The possibility that we have already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits centuries before arriving.”


Now this is interesting. No one has ever claimed ice has never melted at the south pole. No one. But, this glaciologist states that we will wait centuries before it arrives? My point exactly. It took thousands of years for this water to freeze, and its going to take thousands of years for it to melt.


So your understanding of math equals that of your understanding of science? Two centuries are two hundred years. Two hundred years is FAR less than thousands of years. Ice forming from the build up of snow takes much longer than melting of ice through contact with a warmer ocean current.

Quote:
This study was just release recently. Let's see how it stands up to the rigors of others in the scientific community. That is if the principle scientist is willing to share his data and methodology for others to review. Now Dr. Eric Rignot. Principle Scientist for Radar Science and Engineering Section for NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab is not a climatologist so I'm not sure why he's involved in any conclusion. He should be clearly involved for data gathering for how this study was done, but is not qualified to render any conclusion on climate.


The paper is not about climate conclusions, but of the impact of current trends on glacial ice.

Quote:
And, those here who latch onto a just release paper and claim it to be the gospel truth to fit their bias clearly don't understand how the scientific community works.


As if you do? :crazy: The scientific community works by looking at the research on the subject and comparing the results of different groups to see if similar conclusions are reached. In this case you have referenced other published papers reaching similar conclusions by different groups using similar sets of data. Thus, the reproducibility is already being documented.

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PostPosted: Sat May 17, 2014 5:06 pm 
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/17/f ... from-1999/

Quote:
It’s “old” news, as this publication from 1999 shows us.



Figure 1 Map showing dated locations used to resolve Holocene grounding-line retreat to its present position in the Ross Sea Embayment. Although the detailed structure of past grounding-line positions is unknown, dotted lines show the simplest grounding-line pattern consistent with the dates in the text. (Conway et al., 1999)
Figure 1
“Map showing dated locations used to resolve Holocene grounding-line retreat to its present position in the Ross Sea Embayment. Although the detailed structure of past grounding-line positions is unknown, dotted lines show the simplest grounding-line pattern consistent with the dates in the text.”
(Conway et al., 1999)


The history of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) gives clues about its future. Southward grounding-line migration was dated past three locations in the Ross Sea Embayment. Results indicate that most recession occurred during the middle to late Holocene in the absence of substantial sea level or climate forcing. Current grounding-line retreat may reflect ongoing ice recession that has been under way since the early Holocene. If so, the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing…

The collapse (retreat of the grounding line) began about 20,000 years ago. It is irreversible because “the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing” and there are no topographic obstacles to prevent it from flowing downhill into the ocean.

One has to wonder why this paper didn’t merit panic-stricken headlines in 1999

It’s the same story, just from the other side of the peninsula.


Same old same old. Just recycled crap from 15 years ago. Nothing new to see here.

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PostPosted: Sat May 17, 2014 6:59 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/17/flashback-irreversible-collapse-of-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-from-1999/

Quote:
It’s “old” news, as this publication from 1999 shows us.



Figure 1 Map showing dated locations used to resolve Holocene grounding-line retreat to its present position in the Ross Sea Embayment. Although the detailed structure of past grounding-line positions is unknown, dotted lines show the simplest grounding-line pattern consistent with the dates in the text. (Conway et al., 1999)
Figure 1
“Map showing dated locations used to resolve Holocene grounding-line retreat to its present position in the Ross Sea Embayment. Although the detailed structure of past grounding-line positions is unknown, dotted lines show the simplest grounding-line pattern consistent with the dates in the text.”
(Conway et al., 1999)


The history of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) gives clues about its future. Southward grounding-line migration was dated past three locations in the Ross Sea Embayment. Results indicate that most recession occurred during the middle to late Holocene in the absence of substantial sea level or climate forcing. Current grounding-line retreat may reflect ongoing ice recession that has been under way since the early Holocene. If so, the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing…

The collapse (retreat of the grounding line) began about 20,000 years ago. It is irreversible because “the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing” and there are no topographic obstacles to prevent it from flowing downhill into the ocean.

One has to wonder why this paper didn’t merit panic-stricken headlines in 1999

It’s the same story, just from the other side of the peninsula.


Same old same old. Just recycled crap from 15 years ago. Nothing new to see here.


If the blogger source or poster actually understood the significance of the difference between a change in grounding line over time and the retreat of the grounding past a critical point of resistance it would be easier to explain to them. Hopefully the readers have a better grasp of such a difference.

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PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 9:42 pm 
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Oh my.

http://www.principia-scientific.org/ant ... facts.html

Quote:

But wait a minute. This isn’t exactly a new development that is readily attributable to smokestacks and SUVs. The West Antarctic ice sheet has been melting at about its recent rate over thousands of years. This condition is expected to continue until either it entirely disappears, or until such time as the next Ice Age intervenes to stop it.



For some additional perspective, consider that the West Antarctic ice sheet which has been experiencing modest warming contains less than 10 percent of continent’s total ice mass. That other 90 percent has been getting colder, with no decline in polar ice extent since satellite recordings first began in 1979. As a matter of fact, Antarctic polar ice extent just surpassed the greatest month-of-April measurements in satellite-recorded history.

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PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 9:52 pm 
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Milton Banana wrote:
Oh my.

http://www.principia-scientific.org/ant ... facts.html

Quote:

But wait a minute. This isn’t exactly a new development that is readily attributable to smokestacks and SUVs. The West Antarctic ice sheet has been melting at about its recent rate over thousands of years. This condition is expected to continue until either it entirely disappears, or until such time as the next Ice Age intervenes to stop it.



For some additional perspective, consider that the West Antarctic ice sheet which has been experiencing modest warming contains less than 10 percent of continent’s total ice mass. That other 90 percent has been getting colder, with no decline in polar ice extent since satellite recordings first began in 1979. As a matter of fact, Antarctic polar ice extent just surpassed the greatest month-of-April measurements in satellite-recorded history.


Yes, Oh my you have quoted an opinion piece from a non-scientific source as if it were actually something ...

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