Us carbon emissions jump 2.4% in 2025, breaking years-long declining trend

The United States reversed its recent progress on climate pollution in 2025, with carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning rising 2.4% compared to the previous year, according to a new study from the Rhodium Group research firm released Tuesday. This marks a concerning shift away from the emissions reductions the country had achieved in recent years.

The increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases outpaced economic growth, meaning the US economy became more carbon-intensive in 2025. Researchers identified three primary drivers behind the emissions spike: an unusually cool winter that boosted heating demand, the rapid expansion of energy-hungry data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, and higher natural gas prices that affected energy consumption patterns.

Notably, the study found that environmental policy rollbacks under Donald Trump’s administration did not contribute significantly to the 2025 increase, since those policies were only implemented this year. This suggests the emissions rise was driven more by economic and weather factors than by immediate policy changes.

The findings highlight the ongoing challenge of decoupling economic activity from carbon pollution. As scientists consistently warn, greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil, and natural gas remain the leading cause of accelerating global warming. The 2025 reversal underscores how factors like extreme weather, emerging technologies, and energy market dynamics can quickly derail climate progress, making sustained policy commitment and technological innovation even more critical for meeting long-term climate goals.