COP30 Brazil: Five Critical Issues That Will Define Climate Action

As world leaders prepare to gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30 next week, the climate summit faces unprecedented challenges. A decade after the Paris Agreement’s adoption, the global climate response appears increasingly fragmented, with roughly 100 countries failing to strengthen their climate pledges since last year’s conference. Current commitments put the world on track for 2.3-2.5°C of warming by 2100—far above the Paris Agreement’s “well below” 2°C target.

The conference comes at a pivotal moment. While President Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from climate commitments and called global warming the world’s “greatest con job,” Brazil under President Lula has emerged as an unexpected climate leader. After achieving a nearly 17% drop in emissions last year through anti-deforestation efforts, Brazil is positioning itself to drive meaningful progress. However, Lula’s recent approval of Amazon oil exploration highlights the complex balancing act developing nations face between environmental protection and economic needs.

Five key issues will determine COP30’s success: reforming the broken climate finance system that has failed to deliver promised funding to vulnerable nations; establishing concrete adaptation indicators to measure climate resilience progress; preventing backsliding from the historic COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels; amplifying Indigenous voices in the first-ever Amazon-hosted COP; and addressing growing skepticism about the multilateral negotiation process itself.

With renewable energy finally outpacing coal globally for the first time, there are glimmers of hope. Yet as climate impacts intensify worldwide—from California’s devastating fires to Pacific island nations facing sea-level rise—COP30 represents a critical test of whether international cooperation can still deliver the transformative action our warming planet desperately needs.